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Florida State vs Kent State Picks and Predictions — September 20, 2025
The Florida State Seminoles return to action Saturday in Tallahassee against the Kent State Golden Flashes. FSU (2‑0) is off to another strong start, rising in the polls while riding a bye week. Kent State (1‑2) is still yearning for its first FBS win, having lost 24 straight such games. The matchup offers FSU both a chance to keep building national momentum and Kent State a chance to break free of its long drought.
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Opening odds:
- Spread: Florida State −43.5
- Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- Moneyline: Seminoles heavily favored
Want expert NCAAF betting breakdowns & predictions? Explore NCAAF Picks and Predictions →
Kent State Can Win If…
- They keep building confidence offensively. Quarterback Dru DeShields was sharp against Buffalo, combining passing and rushing threat without turning the ball over.
- Wide receiver Cade Wolford continues his breakout; with speed and scoring ability, he can force defensive mistakes from FSU.
- The defense holds up early, especially against Florida State’s ground game. If Kent State slows the run and forces FSU into predictable passing downs, there’s a chance to limit big plays.
“I think we’ve taken huge strides there. It’s proof that we’re going in a really positive direction,” interim Kent State coach Mark Carney said.
Florida State Can Win If…
- They dominate on the ground. FSU already has nine rushing touchdowns in two games, exceeding last season’s pace. The more they can lean on the run early, the less risky their offense becomes.
- The Seminoles take advantage of Kent State’s inexperience in big FBS moments. Preventing turnovers, scoring quickly, and keeping pressure on will magnify the gap.
- Their defense forces errors. If Kent State tries to play catch-up, FSU’s ability to force mistakes and convert them into points will be decisive.
Key NCAAF Betting Trends
| Category | Kent State Golden Flashes | Florida State Seminoles |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Record | 1‑2, struggling vs FBS opponents | 2‑0, rising in polls, strong early non‑conference performance |
| Losses vs FBS Teams | 24 straight losses vs FBS squads | Has defeated FBS opponents convincingly so far |
| Scoring Offense | DeShields effective, but inconsistent | High scoring: averaging over 50 PPG in first two games |
| Scoring Defense | Vulnerable vs strong run/pass teams | Strong defensive metrics, very low points allowed so far |
| Spread Trends | Frequently beaten by large spreads | Covers big spreads against weaker competition; public and line heavily favor FSU |
The Lean
Pick: Florida State −43.5
Projected Final Score: Florida State 55, Kent State 10
Reasoning: FSU is clicking — they look balanced, explosive, and disciplined. Kent State has made strides but FSU’s physicality, depth, and momentum are on another level. With the huge spread also reflecting public confidence, this feels like a blowout waiting to happen. Under 55.5 has some appeal if Kent State stalls, but FSU has shown ability to push the pace and score quickly.
Best Bet Box
| Best Bet Category | Selection |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Florida State −43.5 |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Final Score | Florida State 55, Kent State 10 |
| Total Lean | Over/Under — lean under 55.5 |
