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The Houston Cougars begin their second season under head coach Willie Fritz with a Thursday night home opener against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks. Houston has struggled since joining the Big XII, posting back-to-back 4-8 records, while Stephen F. Austin comes in as a ranked FCS opponent with an explosive offense.
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Results speak for themselves
Opening Odds & Context
Oddsmakers list Houston as a -27.5 favorite, with the total set at 61.5 points. The Cougars desperately need a strong start after ranking 128th in total offense last season. Meanwhile, Stephen F. Austin averaged 35.6 points per game in 2024, making this a dangerous “cupcake” matchup for Houston.
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Houston Can Win If…
The Cougars must prove that transfer quarterback Conner Weigman can elevate a stagnant offense. Fritz is banking on portal additions and a retooled system to jumpstart scoring.
“We have very high expectations… Our first goal is to be successful on Thursday night. I’ll know a lot more about our ball club after Thursday night,” Fritz said.
If Weigman delivers through the air and Houston’s defense neutralizes Stephen F. Austin’s tempo, the Cougars should cruise and cover at home.
Stephen F. Austin Can Win If…
The Lumberjacks can make things interesting if quarterback Sam Vidlak plays like he did in 2024, when he threw for 27 touchdowns against just four interceptions despite missing time. Their offense ranked eighth nationally in the FCS at 35.6 points per game.
“Obviously quarterback is a strength for us,” head coach Colby Carthel said. “When you’re fighting up a couple of weight classes you want to get out of the game healthy, but we’ll be ready to take the field and see what we’re made of.”
If Vidlak avoids turnovers and SFA’s offensive line holds up, the Lumberjacks could cover the spread against a Houston team still finding its identity.
Key NCAAF Betting Trends
| Category | Houston | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Record | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Points Per Game | 18.4 | 35.6 |
| Total Offense Rank | 128th (FBS) | Top 10 (FCS) |
| QB to Watch | Conner Weigman | Sam Vidlak |
| Home/Away Note | 2-4 Home in 2024 | Ranked No. 24 FCS Preseason |
The Lean
Model Projection: Houston 41, Stephen F. Austin 20
Pick: Stephen F. Austin +27.5
Total Lean: Under 61.5
Houston should win comfortably, but given their offensive struggles and SFA’s ability to score, the Lumberjacks look capable of keeping this inside the big spread. Fritz’s Cougars are still a work in progress, so back the underdog to cover.
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