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Michigan State Spartans vs Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview
The Michigan State Spartans head to Bloomington for a tough Week 8 Big Ten matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday, October 18, 2025. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium.
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Indiana (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) continues its breakout campaign after a 30-20 road victory over Oregon, while Michigan State (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten) looks to stop a three-game conference skid and regain stability under coach Jonathan Smith.
Indiana Rolling Toward Playoff Contention
The Hoosiers solidified their playoff credentials last weekend with a statement win at Oregon. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza continues to shine, throwing for 321 yards and two touchdowns while showing poise after a costly pick-six in the fourth quarter.
In his first season at Indiana, Mendoza has already surpassed last year’s passing touchdown mark from Cal, tossing 17 TDs in just 153 attempts with a 71.2% completion rate. His efficiency has unlocked an Indiana offense averaging nearly 40 points per game and over 430 yards per outing.
The rushing attack adds balance, averaging 5.6 yards per carry with 13 scores. Defensively, Indiana has been elite, allowing only 11.3 points per game and limiting Oregon to 267 total yards with six sacks and two interceptions. The defensive front’s pressure has been relentless, keeping opponents off rhythm week after week.
Coach Curt Cignetti has kept his squad focused despite the growing national buzz, preaching humility and preparation as the key to sustaining success.
Michigan State Searching for Stability
For Michigan State, the concern starts at quarterback. Starter Aidan Chiles is questionable after exiting the loss to UCLA with an undisclosed injury. Redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic could make his first start if Chiles cannot play. Milivojevic showed potential, tossing a late touchdown last week, but faces an intimidating test against Indiana’s defense.
The Spartans’ recent struggles have been glaring — they’ve allowed 121 points across their last three games, all Big Ten losses. Defensive lapses and offensive inconsistency have created frustration around the program. Smith, now in his second season, is leaning on team leadership to spark a turnaround.
To keep this game competitive, Michigan State must sustain drives, protect its quarterback, and avoid turnovers. The defense, giving up nearly 30 points per game, will need its best performance yet to contain Indiana’s versatile attack.
Line Movement and Odds
Current Odds (via ScoresAndStats.com Odds)
Indiana -19.5 (-110)
Michigan State +19.5 (-110)
Total: 51.5 (Over -108 / Under -112)
Indiana has dominated this series, winning 17 of the last 20 meetings, including last year’s 47-10 blowout in East Lansing.
Matchup Breakdown
Indiana Hoosiers Outlook
Indiana’s balance and confidence make them one of the most dangerous teams in the country right now. Mendoza’s precision passing, complemented by a dominant front seven, has turned Indiana into a legitimate playoff contender. Expect them to dictate tempo and control both lines of scrimmage.
Michigan State Spartans Outlook
The Spartans’ best path to success is through ball control and a steady running game to keep Indiana’s offense off the field. If Milivojevic starts, simplifying the playbook and emphasizing short, quick passes will be crucial. Defensively, they’ll need to force turnovers early to have a chance.
Key Edge
Indiana’s experience and defensive dominance give them a decisive edge. Michigan State’s uncertainty at quarterback and lack of rhythm make an upset highly unlikely. The Hoosiers’ ability to generate pressure and capitalize on mistakes should lead to another lopsided victory.
Betting Trends
Indiana is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 home games.
Indiana is 6-1 straight-up in its last seven Big Ten matchups.
Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.
The total has gone under in five of Michigan State’s last six on the road.
Prediction and Best Bets
Indiana has been one of the most complete teams in the nation, and Michigan State’s defensive issues make this a difficult road trip. Expect the Hoosiers to keep rolling toward a playoff berth with another dominant showing.
Projected Score: Indiana 38, Michigan State 13
Best Bet: Indiana -19.5
Secondary Lean: Under 51.5
For more college football previews and betting insights, visit ScoresAndStats.com College Football Picks.
