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Oregon Ducks vs Iowa Hawkeyes Game Preview
The Oregon Ducks open a challenging four-game Big Ten stretch Saturday when they visit the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium.
Ranked No. 9 in the College Football Playoff standings, Oregon (7–1, 4–1 Big Ten) has its postseason hopes intact but faces a physical opponent in Iowa (6–2, 4–1), which boasts one of the best scoring defenses in the country at 13.3 points allowed per game.
This will be the first Big Ten meeting between the programs. Both teams are coming off a bye week, setting the stage for a physical, well-prepared matchup. Oregon rides the nation’s longest road winning streak (10 straight), while Iowa has won 17 of its past 20 November home games.
For real-time updates and spread shifts, check the NCAAF odds and scores board before kickoff.
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Odds and Key Information
The betting markets expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out matchup.
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon –6.0 / Iowa +6.0 |
| Moneyline | Oregon –227 / Iowa +188 |
| Total (O/U) | 41.5 points |
| Venue | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Time | Saturday, Nov. 8, 3:30 PM ET |
| Broadcast | CBS |
Oregon has covered in four of its last five games as a road favorite, while Iowa has gone 5–1 ATS in its last six home contests as an underdog.
Oregon Outlook
The Oregon Ducks enter fresh off a 21–7 win over Wisconsin, where their defense dominated by forcing five turnovers and allowing just 86 passing yards. That performance cemented Oregon’s reputation as one of the most balanced teams in college football.
Quarterback Dante Moore, who briefly exited that game with a nose injury, is expected to play. Moore has thrown for 1,772 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, maintaining the Ducks’ offensive rhythm. Running back Noah Whittington leads the ground game with 433 yards and four scores, while wide receiver Tez Johnson continues to pace the receiving corps with elite efficiency.
Offensively, Oregon averages 41.3 points and 483.9 yards per game, ranking in the top 10 nationally in both categories. Their 6.3 yards per rush highlight a versatile attack capable of neutralizing pressure-heavy defenses like Iowa’s.
Defensively, Oregon ranks eighth nationally in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and has created 22 takeaways in eight games. The Ducks’ front seven, led by Brandon Dorlus and Matayo Uiagalelei, will aim to contain Iowa’s run-first approach and force Gronowski into third-and-long situations.
Iowa Outlook
The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the toughest teams in the country to play at home, particularly in November, where they’ve gone 21–2 over their last 23 games. Head coach Kirk Ferentz has his team peaking at the right time, and their 41–3 blowout win over Minnesota two weeks ago was their most complete effort of the year.
Quarterback Mark Gronowski has been a steady dual-threat presence since transferring from South Dakota State. He’s the only player in the nation with a rushing touchdown in every game this season and has 11 total rushing scores. His combination of toughness and decision-making has stabilized an offense that averages 194 rushing yards per game during its current three-game winning streak.
Defensively, Iowa remains elite. The Hawkeyes rank top 10 nationally in both scoring defense (13.3 points allowed) and yards per play. Linebacker Jay Higgins and cornerback Sebastian Castro lead a unit that thrives on discipline and gap control. The team’s 17 sacks and 9 interceptions demonstrate their ability to generate pressure without overcommitting blitzes.
For Iowa to pull off the upset, they’ll need to win the battle in the trenches. Stopping Oregon’s run game — which averages 6.3 yards per carry — and maintaining ball control through long drives are essential.
Key Storylines
The matchup’s defining battle will occur up front. Oregon’s offensive line is among the nation’s best at preventing negative plays, while Iowa’s defensive front allows just 2.6 yards per rush.
Dante Moore’s efficiency against Iowa’s disguised coverages will also be key. If the Hawkeyes can limit explosive plays and force Oregon to settle for field goals, they can keep the game within reach into the fourth quarter.
Conversely, Oregon’s edge speed and athleticism present a new level of challenge for an Iowa offense that relies heavily on the run. Gronowski’s ability to extend plays and protect the ball could determine whether Iowa keeps it close.
Betting Trends
- Oregon is 28–2 straight up as a favorite in its last 30 games.
- The Ducks are 8–0 straight up in their last eight road games.
- Iowa is 11–0 straight up after a loss in its last 11 games.
- The total has gone under in five of Iowa’s last six games.
- Oregon has covered in six of its past seven November matchups.
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Predictions
The Oregon Ducks are the more explosive team, but the Iowa Hawkeyes are capable of dragging any opponent into a physical, low-possession game. Expect a defensive struggle early before Oregon’s depth and tempo begin to separate them late.
Projected score: Oregon 28, Iowa 14
Spread pick: Oregon –6.0
Total lean: Over 41.5
Oregon’s balanced offense and road experience make the difference, extending their road winning streak while keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Late-season Big Ten matchups often come down to pace and red-zone efficiency — two areas where expert models hold an edge. Compare projections and performance trends on the Handicappers Leaderboard and check the NCAAF picks page for updated insights before kickoff.
Cross-check these plays with the NFL expert betting guide to refine your approach to total and spread markets.
