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James Madison Dukes vs Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The James Madison Dukes host the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt Championship Game at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrisonburg. No. 25 James Madison seeks its first Sun Belt crown and a possible CFP berth, while Troy looks to add another title to its recent run of success. Bettors must weigh James Madison’s dominant rushing attack against Troy’s defensive playmakers.
Line Movement and Odds
- Troy MoneyLine: +1133
- James Madison MoneyLine: -2372
- Troy Spread: +23.0 (-110)
- James Madison Spread: -23.0 (-110)
- Total Over 47.5 (-107)
- Total Under 47.5 (-114)
James Madison opened as heavy favorites at home. See full NCAAF odds for market movement.
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Matchup Breakdown
Troy Trojans Outlook
Troy defeated Southern Miss 28-18 behind 296 passing yards and a strong defensive effort. Quarterback Goose Crowder has thrown for 646 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two games. Linebacker Donnie Smith leads the Sun Belt with nine sacks, while the defense ranks 13th nationally in sacks and 11th in interceptions. Running back Tae Meadows adds 685 rushing yards, providing balance. Troy must rely on defensive disruption and Crowder’s efficiency to stay competitive.
James Madison Dukes Outlook
James Madison routed Coastal Carolina 59-10 with 290 rushing yards. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has thrown for 20 touchdowns this season, while Wayne Knight became the Dukes’ first 1,000-yard rusher since 2020. The Dukes rank 5th nationally in rushing yards (2,927) and 10th in points scored (454). Defensively, they rank 15th in sacks and have 12 interceptions. Their balanced attack and home dominance make them strong favorites.
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Troy’s defensive front vs James Madison’s rushing attack. The Trojans must pressure Barnett and limit Knight’s ground game, while the Dukes need to control tempo and exploit Troy’s secondary.
Injuries / Availability
Troy: Garner Langlo (OL), Elijah Prather (OL), Casey Fua’au (DT) are questionable.
James Madison: Ayo Adeyi (RB), Brandon Fique (LB), Jordan Fuller (RB), Landon Ellis (WR), Gannon Weathersby (LB) are questionable.
Betting Trends
- Troy is 26-4 straight up as a favorite in their last 30 games.
- Troy is 19-5 ATS in away games over their last 24.
- James Madison is 11-0 straight up as a favorite in 2025.
- James Madison is 10-0 straight up overall in 2025.
- James Madison is 18-2 straight up at home since 2022.
- James Madison is 9-0 straight up after a win in 2025.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Final Score: James Madison 45, Troy 17
- James Madison -23.0 (-110) → Best Bet. Dukes’ home dominance and offensive balance suggest they cover.
- Over 47.5 (-107) → Total. Our model projects 62 points, leaning over given James Madison’s scoring power.
James Madison’s rushing attack and defensive disruption should secure the win, while Troy’s defense may keep it close early. Expect the Dukes to cover with the total trending over.
Handicappers and Service Plays
For sharper betting insights, explore our Best Handicappers, track performance streaks on the Leaderboard, and review premium selections in Buy Picks. These resources provide expert context to refine your wagering strategy.
