Louisville Cardinals vs California Golden Bears Picks and Predictions November 8th 2025

Louisville Cardinals vs California Golden Bears Game Preview

The Louisville Cardinals enter Week 11 ranked No. 15 in the College Football Playoff standings, focused on staying alive in the national picture as they host the California Golden Bears on Saturday night in Louisville.

At 7–1 overall and 4–1 in ACC play, Louisville is in control of its postseason destiny but cannot afford a slip-up down the stretch. Head coach Jeff Brohm has emphasized consistency and discipline, reminding his team that “everything matters” as they chase one of the program’s best seasons in recent memory.

Cal (5–4, 2–3) enters after a 31–21 loss to Virginia that exposed defensive lapses and renewed concerns about the running game. A road win here would not only make the Bears bowl eligible but also derail Louisville’s playoff hopes.

For updated lines, totals, and public money splits, visit the NCAAF odds and scores page.

Odds and Key Information

Louisville is a near three-touchdown favorite at home, backed by one of the ACC’s most efficient defenses.

Category	Value
Spread	Louisville –19.5 / Cal +19.5
Moneyline	Louisville –1302 / Cal +779
Total (O/U)	50.5 points
Venue	L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Time	Saturday, Nov. 8, 7:00 PM ET
Broadcast	ESPN2

The Cardinals are 20–4 straight up at home over their last 24 games, while Cal is 7–4 ATS on the road across its last 11.

Louisville Outlook

The Louisville Cardinals overcame a slow start last week to beat Virginia Tech 28–16, improving to 7–1 and keeping themselves firmly in the ACC title race. Quarterback Miller Moss — a USC transfer — has settled into the offense, completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,929 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Louisville’s offense will be without leading rusher Isaac Brown, who suffered a leg injury late against the Hokies. Brown leads the nation with 8.6 yards per carry, but depth remains a strength. Keyjuan Brown, who’s no relation, has recorded 189 yards and three touchdowns over his past two games, while Duke Watson provides veteran stability in the backfield.

Even amid injuries, Louisville ranks sixth in the ACC with 155.8 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals’ offensive line has provided consistency, surrendering just nine sacks this season.

Defensively, Louisville remains elite — ranked 11th nationally in total defense (280.5 yards per game) and tied for seventh in interceptions (12). The secondary, led by Quincy Riley and Jarvis Brownlee Jr., continues to limit big plays. This unit will pressure Cal’s young quarterback into mistakes, especially in passing downs.

Cal Outlook

The California Golden Bears are seeking stability after dropping three of their last four, including last week’s home loss to Virginia. Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has flashed talent, throwing for at least 208 yards in every game this season, but turnovers have been costly — nine interceptions through nine contests.

Cal’s offense relies heavily on the passing game, ranking 27th nationally with 2,277 yards through the air. Receivers Jacob De Jesus (533 yards) and Jeremiah Hunter (478 yards) form an efficient tandem, though the Bears’ rushing production has been nearly nonexistent. They average only 78.6 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the FBS.

Defensively, Cal struggles against the run, allowing over 205 yards per game in ACC play. Their secondary remains opportunistic, tied for seventh nationally in interceptions with six. That aggressiveness, however, often comes at the cost of big plays — something Louisville’s play-action-heavy attack could exploit.

Head coach Justin Wilcox has stressed improvement in tackling and ball security, noting the need to “finish drives and force field goals” to keep pace against elite opponents.

Key Storylines

Louisville’s playoff ambitions hinge on maintaining dominance at home, especially with key players sidelined. If the Cardinals’ ground game continues to produce behind Keyjuan Brown and their defense limits explosive passes, they should control this game from the outset.

Cal’s path to an upset depends on forcing turnovers and creating short fields. Sagapolutele’s arm can challenge any defense, but his pocket awareness will be tested against Louisville’s front seven. The Bears’ ability to withstand pressure and avoid third-and-long situations will determine their competitiveness.

Special teams could also play a pivotal role — Louisville has one of the ACC’s top punt coverage units, while Cal ranks in the bottom 30 nationally in punt returns.

Betting Trends

• Louisville is 24–5 straight up as a favorite in its last 29 games.
• The Cardinals are 12–5 to the over following a win in their last 17.
• Cal is 5–1 straight up after a loss in its last six.
• Cal has covered seven of its last 11 road games.
• The total has gone under in four of Louisville’s past five games against teams with winning records.

For guidance on interpreting spread movements in volatile markets, check out the NFL expert betting guide.

Predictions

The Louisville Cardinals should handle business comfortably at home, relying on their top-tier defense and depth at running back. The California Golden Bears lack the offensive balance to keep pace, particularly against a secondary that thrives on creating turnovers.

Projected score: Louisville 35, Cal 14
Spread pick: Louisville –19.5
Total lean: Under 50.5

Miller Moss’ precision and Louisville’s front-seven dominance should define the evening. Expect the Cardinals to build an early lead and protect it with steady tempo and disciplined defense.

Why You Need Expert Picks

Late-season conference games often swing on motivation, injuries, and depth — areas where expert analytics provide an edge. Compare verified handicapping records on the Handicappers Leaderboard and explore the NCAAF picks page for updated projections before kickoff.

Sharpen your betting approach using the NFL expert betting guide, which outlines model-based strategies for identifying value across similar football markets.