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Game Preview Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan State Spartans
The Minnesota Golden Gophers return home looking to rebound from a 41-3 defeat to Iowa when they host the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis.
Minnesota sits at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play, while Michigan State enters 3-5 and winless in the conference. Both teams are desperate for consistency, though for different reasons — the Gophers to maintain bowl positioning and the Spartans to end a five-game skid that has magnified pressure on the coaching staff.
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Line Movement and Odds
Early markets have Minnesota favored by 8.5 points at home, with a total around 46.5. The Gophers opened slightly lower, drawing steady support after bettors faded Michigan State’s ongoing conference struggles. The total has held firm as both offenses rank in the bottom half of the Big Ten in scoring efficiency.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers Outlook
The Minnesota Golden Gophers will look to correct the execution issues that doomed them against Iowa. Quarterback Drake Lindsey threw three interceptions and completed just 12 of 28 passes for 109 yards. For the season, Lindsey has 1,546 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and six picks, showing flashes of promise but inconsistency under pressure.
Head coach P.J. Fleck emphasized the need for sharper play-calling and discipline. Minnesota’s rushing attack, which averages 162 yards per game, remains its most reliable weapon. Defensively, the Gophers rank 35th nationally in points allowed, and the secondary has produced nine takeaways, giving them a chance to reset momentum at home.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Injury Report
Key injuries: No major new absences reported. Defensive rotation remains healthy entering Week 10.
Michigan State Spartans Outlook
The Michigan State Spartans continue to seek their first Big Ten win after a 31-20 loss to Michigan. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been one of the few bright spots, throwing for 1,392 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 227 yards and six scores on the ground. His dual-threat ability keeps defenses honest, though turnovers and stalled drives have limited Michigan State’s scoring output.
Coach Jonathan Smith’s team averages just 22 points per game and has given up at least 30 in three of its last five. The defensive front remains aggressive, but lapses in coverage have hurt them against high-tempo opponents. The Spartans will need to control time of possession and avoid giveaways to stay competitive.
Michigan State Spartans Injury Report
Offensive lineman Kevin Wigenton II – Questionable (ankle)
Wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. – Questionable (undisclosed)
Defensive back Jaden Mangham – Out (shoulder)
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Minnesota must lean on its ground game to limit pressure on Lindsey and create manageable downs. Running backs Sean Tyler and Darius Taylor should see extended usage against a Michigan State defense allowing 163 rushing yards per game.
For the Spartans, Chiles’s mobility is the X-factor. If he extends plays and limits turnovers, Michigan State can stay within reach. The team that wins third-down efficiency and turnover margin will likely control the tempo and result.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota is 4-1 straight up at home this season.
- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Big Ten games.
- Michigan State is 1-6 ATS in conference play since 2024.
- The Spartans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs in their last ten games.
- The under is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight home contests.
- Michigan State has hit the over in four of its last six games.
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Prediction
Minnesota’s physical style and home-field advantage give it a clear edge, provided Lindsey avoids turnovers. Expect the Gophers to reestablish their run identity and capitalize on Michigan State’s defensive lapses late.
Projected Score: Minnesota 27, Michigan State 17
Best Bet: Minnesota -8.5
Total Lean: Under 46.5
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