Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northern Illinois Huskies Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

Mississippi State eyes perfect start against upset-minded NIU

The Mississippi State Bulldogs look to close out nonconference play undefeated when they host the Northern Illinois Huskies on Saturday afternoon in Starkville. The Bulldogs are off to a 3-0 start under coach Jeff Lebby and have dominated weaker opponents, but NIU carries a history of pulling off surprise wins against Power 4 programs. For bettors, this matchup presents a fascinating blend of talent disparity and underdog tradition, making it one to track for college football picks.

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Betting Odds and Trends

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Can Win If…

The Mississippi State Bulldogs must continue their offensive rhythm behind quarterback Blake Shapen, who has thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games—the second-longest active streak in the country. In last week’s 63-0 rout of Alcorn State, Shapen’s efficiency allowed the offense to spread the ball to multiple playmakers. If he maintains his poise against NIU’s aggressive linebackers, Mississippi State should stay in control.

The ground game will also be vital. Mississippi State has rotated backs effectively, producing balance that forces defenses to stay honest. Against NIU’s stingy front, which allows just 74 rushing yards per game (13th nationally), the Bulldogs must stay patient and win the line of scrimmage.

Defensively, the Bulldogs will look to replicate their dominance from the first three weeks. They’ve consistently limited opponents’ big plays, forcing long, sustained drives. If they can keep NIU behind the chains and pressure quarterback Rocky Lombardi into hurried throws, they’ll likely cruise to their first 4-0 start since 2014.

The Northern Illinois Huskies Can Win If…

The Northern Illinois Huskies thrive as an underdog program. Just last year, they shocked No. 5 Notre Dame with a 16-14 road upset—the biggest win in school history. Under head coach Thomas Hammock, NIU has developed a reputation for physical play and resilience, traits they’ll need in Starkville as a three-touchdown underdog.

Their rushing attack is the foundation. Averaging 179 yards per game, the Huskies rely on a physical offensive line and backs that wear down defenses. If NIU controls time of possession and keeps Mississippi State’s explosive offense off the field, they can hang around.

Defensively, the Huskies must stop the run first. Ranked top 15 nationally in rushing defense, they’ve shown the ability to clog gaps and prevent chunk plays. Forcing Shapen into long third downs, and ideally a turnover or two, could give NIU the momentum it needs to engineer another stunning upset.

The Lean

Mississippi State enters as a heavy favorite at -21.5, and their dominant nonconference performance suggests they have the firepower to cover. NIU has struggled to move the ball consistently against Power 4 competition, barely edging Holy Cross before falling 20-9 to Maryland.

The total of 54.5 points feels high given NIU’s conservative offense and Mississippi State’s defense. A projected 38-13 Bulldog victory leans toward Mississippi State covering the spread, while the under looks like the sharper play due to NIU’s likely struggles scoring in Starkville.

Game Preview Recap

Mississippi State’s 3-0 start has energized the program under Jeff Lebby. The Bulldogs’ offense has been balanced, with Shapen’s accuracy keeping defenses honest while the run game provides stability. The defense, meanwhile, has been suffocating, yielding little room for opposing offenses to operate.

NIU arrives with the underdog label it has worn proudly in recent years. Hammock praised his team’s fight in a 20-9 loss at Maryland, noting their ability to compete for four quarters despite being outmatched. The Huskies’ run defense is a legitimate strength, but their offensive inconsistency makes this a steep challenge.

Lebby has emphasized the importance of going 4-0 in nonconference play before entering the SEC gauntlet. With Shapen chasing one of the nation’s longest touchdown streaks and the Bulldogs’ defense hitting its stride, Mississippi State appears poised to continue its roll.

Recent Matchups

This is the first-ever meeting between the two programs, adding an extra layer of intrigue. Mississippi State looks to preserve momentum and enter SEC play undefeated, while NIU aims to shock the college football world yet again. Bettors tracking scores and odds should view this as a measuring stick game for the Bulldogs, with lessons also relevant to the NFL betting guide.