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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers September 27th 2025
In Week 5 of the 2025 college football season, the Tennessee Volunteers head to Starkville to play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The game will take place at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday, September 27, 2025, with a kickoff at 4:15 PM. Fans can catch the action on SECN.
The Volunteers come into this game with a 3-1 record. They are ranked #15 in both the AP and Coaches Polls. On the other side, the Bulldogs are undefeated with a 4-0 record. Mississippi State has been strong at home, holding a 3-0 record at Davis Wade Stadium this season.
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Tennessee vs Mississippi State CFB Key Information
- Sport: College Football
- Teams: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS
- Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
- Betting Odds: Tennessee Moneyline -298, Mississippi State Moneyline +240, Tennessee Spread -7.5 (-110), Mississippi State Spread +7.5 (-110), Total Over 62.5 (-108), Total Under 62.5 (-113)
Tennessee Can Win If…
The Tennessee Volunteers recently played against the UAB Blazers and won 56-24. In that game, Tennessee’s offense was strong, with 275 passing yards and 239 rushing yards. Joey Aguilar, the quarterback, played a key role, contributing to the team’s success with his passing skills.
Tennessee’s offense is one of the best this season. They are ranked 2nd in points scored with 214 and 5th in passing yards with 1351. Their ability to score quickly and efficiently gives them a good chance to win their next game.
The Volunteers’ defense is also performing well. They are ranked 3rd in sacks with 15 and 4th in interceptions with 3. This strong defensive play can help them stop their opponents and secure another win.
Mississippi State Can Win If…
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off a strong win against Northern Illinois, with a score of 38-10. The Bulldogs dominated the ground game, racking up 292 rushing yards while holding the Huskies to just 126. Blake Shapen played a clean game, contributing to the team’s success with no interceptions or fumbles.
Mississippi State has been solid on both sides of the ball this season. They rank 14th in points for, with 159 points scored so far. Their defense is also a force, allowing only 47 points, which ranks them 24th in the nation. Their ability to recover fumbles and intercept passes has been key to their defensive success.
Key players like Fluff Bothwell and Brenen Thompson have been instrumental in the Bulldogs’ offense. Bothwell has rushed for 271 yards and scored four touchdowns in four games. Thompson leads the receiving corps with 291 yards and three touchdowns, providing a reliable target for Shapen. With these players in form, Mississippi State has a good chance to continue their winning streak.
The Lean
The Tennessee Volunteers are favored by 7.5 points against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Tennessee’s strong offensive stats, including being ranked 2nd in points for this season, suggest they can cover the spread. Mississippi State’s recent performance against Northern Illinois was solid, but Tennessee’s consistent record as a favorite (26-4 SU) supports picking them to cover the spread. My model projects Tennessee to win 38-28.
The total for the game is set at 62.5. Tennessee’s recent games have consistently gone over, with a 7-0 O/U record in their last seven games. Mississippi State has also shown a tendency for high-scoring games at home, with a 21-7 O/U record in their last 28 home games. Given these trends, the recommendation is to take the over. My model projects a total score of 66 points.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Week 5 Betting Preview
The Tennessee Volunteers head into Starkville for their SEC road test against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday. Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) is ranked No. 15 and powered by breakout quarterback Joey Aguilar. The Bulldogs are undefeated (4-0) after upsetting Arizona State and now open conference play in front of their cowbell-crazed crowd.
Tennessee last visited Starkville in 2012, dropping a 41-31 decision. Coach Josh Heupel knows his team must handle the noise and tempo to avoid penalties and communication breakdowns.
Line Movement and Odds
The Vols opened –9.5 but have settled as 8.5-point favorites on the college football odds board. Total is around 62.5. Moneyline pricing shows Tennessee –350 and Mississippi State +245.
Public bettors are heavy on Tennessee. Early sharp action sprinkled Mississippi State at +9 but has cooled with the line move.
Matchup Breakdown
Tennessee outlook
Aguilar is thriving, completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,124 yards, 12 touchdowns, and three picks. He has weapons across the field and a defense that ranks sixth nationally in sacks (15). That pass rush could be decisive against a Bulldogs offensive line that has allowed pressure in key moments.
Mississippi State outlook
The Bulldogs rank 39th nationally in total offense at 444 yards per game. RB Fluff Bothwell anchors the ground game, while WR Brenen Thompson leads with 291 yards and three TDs. QB Blake Shapen has been efficient at 67% completions but will need quick reads to survive Tennessee’s front seven.
Key battle
Tennessee’s pass rush vs. Mississippi State’s protection. If Aguilar keeps rhythm and the defense generates pressure, the Volunteers will control the pace.
Injuries and Conditions
Tennessee Volunteers (injury report)
- DB Rickey Gibson III: out for season
- DL Daevin Hobbs: out
- WR Radarious Jackson, RB Hunter Barnes: out
- RB Duane Morris, RT David Sanders Jr.: questionable
Mississippi State Bulldogs (injury report)
- DE/OL Will Whitson: out for season
- RT Blake Steen: out
- LB Derion Gullette: questionable
- S Jahron Manning: uncertain
Best Bets and Prediction
Projected score: Tennessee 36, Mississippi State 28 (64 total).
- Best bet: Tennessee –8.5
- Secondary lean: Over 62.5
Tennessee’s passing attack and relentless pass rush outweigh Mississippi State’s balanced but untested offense.
Handicapping Angle
If you want to see how top cappers are approaching this SEC clash, the Handicapper Leaderboard shows who’s hot. You can also compare analysis across Service Plays and explore NFL picks for cross-sport betting value. For a deeper dive into bankroll strategy, check the Bettors Handbook.
