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Michigan vs Northwestern Week 12 Betting Preview
Michigan and Northwestern head to Wrigley Field for a rare Big Ten matchup in a baseball venue. Michigan is 7-2 and still clinging to fringe playoff hopes. Northwestern sits at 5-4 and returns home after two straight losses. Weather will be mild, around 60 degrees with light wind, which gives both offenses clean conditions.
Michigan beat Purdue 21-16 before its bye. Jordan Marshall exploded for 185 rushing yards, and the defense held Purdue to 138 passing yards. Northwestern fell 38-17 at USC, tied late in the first half before the game slipped away. The Wildcats allowed 482 yards and six red-zone scores.
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Line Movement and Odds
Live numbers are available on the NCAA football odds board:
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Opening line:
Michigan -10.5, total 40.5.
Current line:
Michigan -11.5, total 41.
Moneyline:
Michigan -488. Northwestern +368.
Market notes:
Sharp bettors hit Michigan early, pushing the spread off the opener. Public money leans to Michigan on the moneyline, but total action is split. Weather favors scoring slightly, which is why the total nudged up a half-point.
Matchup Breakdown
Michigan Outlook
Michigan averages 409.4 yards and 28.1 points per game. The run game drives everything. Michigan leads the nation with seven runs of 50 yards or more. Bryce Underwood is settling in, completing safe throws and protecting the ball. Michigan’s defense ranks top-15 in points allowed, sacks, and pressure rate.
Key trench edge: Michigan averages 5.4 yards per carry and faces a Northwestern defensive front that allowed USC to run for 196 yards.
Northwestern Outlook
Northwestern scores 21.9 points per game and relies heavily on its run game behind Caleb Komolafe. The Wildcats defend the pass well and create turnovers, ranking top-10 in both interceptions and fumble recoveries. Preston Stone has been volatile, but avoiding turnovers keeps them competitive.
Northwestern must stay out of long downs. Michigan’s defensive line ranks top-10 in sack rate, and Northwestern’s offensive line is bottom-40 in pressures allowed.
Injuries and Conditions
Michigan Injury Notes
- RB Justice Haynes, out, foot.
- WR C.J. Charleston, out.
- LB Jaydon Hood, out.
- DB Rod Moore, questionable, limited reps.
- LB Jimmy Rolder, questionable, limited.
- OL Evan Link, questionable.
- TE Hogan Hansen, questionable.
Northwestern Injury Notes
- RB Cam Porter, out, lower body.
- DL Richie Hagarty, questionable.
- RB Joseph Himon II, questionable.
- DB Cole Shivers, questionable.
- LB Yannis Karlaftis, out.
- DB Jalen Lewis, out.
Best Bets and Prediction
Michigan is 29-1 straight up in its last 30 as a favorite. Northwestern has leaned over in low-total games, hitting three straight overs with totals of 42 or less.
Projected score: Michigan 28, Northwestern 14.
Best Bet: Michigan -11.5
Secondary Lean: Over 41
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