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Indiana Hoosiers vs Penn State Nittany Lions Game Preview
The Indiana Hoosiers travel to University Park on Saturday to face the Penn State Nittany Lions in a Big Ten showdown that carries drastically different stakes for each side.
Indiana (9–0, 6–0 Big Ten) enters Week 11 ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff standings, just behind Ohio State. The Hoosiers have silenced every critic on their way to an undefeated start, including decisive wins over Illinois (63–10) and Oregon (30–20). Their explosive offense and physical defense have propelled them into the national spotlight — but now the challenge is maintaining focus against a struggling opponent.
Penn State (3–5, 0–5 Big Ten) finds itself reeling after a turbulent season that included the firing of head coach James Franklin and a five-game losing streak. Interim coach Terry Smith will make his home debut as the Nittany Lions try to snap their skid and salvage bowl eligibility.
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Odds and Key Information
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana –14.5 / Penn State +14.5 |
| Moneyline | Indiana –704 / Penn State +496 |
| Total (O/U) | 49.5 points |
| Venue | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Time | Saturday, Nov. 8, 12:00 PM ET |
| Broadcast | FOX |
Indiana last defeated Penn State in 2020, a 36–35 overtime thriller.
Indiana Outlook
The Indiana Hoosiers have been the story of the college football season. Under Curt Cignetti, Indiana has transformed into a national powerhouse powered by an offense that leads the country in scoring (46.4 PPG) and ranks third in rushing yards (2,284).
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been steady, throwing for 2,108 yards and 15 touchdowns, while also providing mobility in short-yardage situations. His balance allows Indiana to attack through the air or on the ground with equal confidence.
The backfield tandem of Kaelon Black (619 yards, 7 TDs) and Roman Hemby (601 yards, 6 TDs) has been nearly unstoppable, combining for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns. On the outside, receivers Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt have formed one of the nation’s most lethal duos, totaling 91 receptions for 1,278 yards and 18 touchdowns.
Defensively, Indiana ranks top-five nationally in sacks (29) and has held opponents to under 17 points in six of nine games. With the CFP spotlight shining bright, Cignetti’s message has been about staying grounded and focused on execution rather than hype.
Penn State Outlook
The Penn State Nittany Lions are in freefall, searching for stability amid a lost season. Their offense has sputtered since the injury to starting quarterback Drew Allar (ankle), with redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer still adjusting to Big Ten defenses.
Grunkemeyer has completed less than 55% of his passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns through two starts. That inconsistency has limited the offense’s ability to sustain drives, and the unit managed just 200 total yards in last week’s 38–14 loss to Ohio State.
Running back Kaytron Allen remains a bright spot, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 10 total touchdowns. His physical style gives Penn State a chance to control tempo if they can avoid early deficits.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions have shown flashes of quality. They rank top-20 nationally in sacks (24) and sixth in interceptions (10), but breakdowns in coverage have been costly. Allowing 480 yards to Ohio State last week underscores the challenge of facing Indiana’s explosive attack.
Key Storylines
Indiana’s Focus on Fundamentals – Curt Cignetti has been adamant about avoiding complacency as the Hoosiers chase perfection.
Penn State’s Transition Under Terry Smith – The interim coach aims to reset team morale and end a five-game skid in front of a home crowd of 100,000+.
Dominant Indiana Offense – Averaging 46.4 points per game, Indiana has scored 40+ in six straight.
Penn State’s Defensive Challenge – The Nittany Lions gave up 316 passing yards last week and now face receivers who have 18 touchdowns combined.
Quarterback Stability – Indiana’s Mendoza has been one of the most efficient passers in the Big Ten, while Penn State’s Grunkemeyer continues to search for rhythm.
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Betting Trends
- Indiana is 19–0 straight up (SU) as a favorite in its last 19 games.
- Indiana is 14–4 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite in its last 18.
- Indiana is 6–0 ATS in games with totals above 50 this season.
- Penn State is 1–6 ATS in its last seven Big Ten games.
- The total has gone over in 10 of Indiana’s last 12 road games.
See updated movement on the college football odds board.
Predictions
The Indiana Hoosiers are firing on all cylinders and show no signs of slowing down. Their balance on offense and relentless defensive pressure make them a nightmare matchup for a Penn State team in transition.
Projected score: Indiana 35, Penn State 17
Spread pick: Indiana –14.5
Total lean: Over 49.5
Indiana continues its march toward the Big Ten Championship Game and another step closer to the CFP semifinals. Penn State’s defense will show early fight, but Indiana’s offensive depth ultimately pulls away.
Why You Need Expert Picks
November conference matchups often bring sharp betting value, especially with ranked teams facing emotional letdowns. Track expert projections on the College Football Picks page and learn how to identify public-vs-sharp line movement through the Expert Betting Guide.
