San Diego State Aztecs vs California Golden Bears Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

Cal looks to stay unbeaten at San Diego State

California has opened the season with three straight wins, powered by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and a defense that thrives on turnovers. The California Golden Bears now head to San Diego for a Saturday night test against the San Diego State Aztecs, who are coming off a bye week. With Cal aiming for its first 4-0 start in years, and the Aztecs eager to bounce back from a tough loss, this matchup sets up as a critical nonconference showdown for bettors tracking college football picks.

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Betting Odds and Trends

The California Golden Bears Can Win If…

The California Golden Bears have leaned heavily on Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s poise and precision. The freshman quarterback has completed 71 of 106 passes (67%) for 780 yards with six touchdowns against just one interception. His ability to spread the ball around has kept defenses off balance, and if he continues his efficient play, the Bears’ offense will be difficult to contain.

Defensively, Cal boasts one of the most opportunistic secondaries in the country. Defensive back Hezekiah Masses has already snagged three interceptions, making him one of the nation’s leaders. If the Golden Bears can force San Diego State into passing downs, their defensive backs could swing momentum with turnovers. That kind of disruption is key against a run-heavy Aztecs squad.

Special teams execution and overall discipline will also matter. Cal has limited mistakes through three games, committing just a handful of penalties. Staying clean in a hostile road environment will help them maximize Sagapolutele’s production and keep the Aztecs from gaining momentum with short fields.

The San Diego State Aztecs Can Win If…

The San Diego State Aztecs need to control tempo with their ground game. Lucky Sutton has been effective, rushing for 100 yards and two scores in the opener before adding 88 yards against Washington State. If Sutton can break through Cal’s front and move the chains, the Aztecs can keep Sagapolutele on the sideline while wearing down the Bears’ defense.

Quarterback play doesn’t have to be flashy, but it must be efficient. San Diego State’s passing attack has yet to show explosive upside, but avoiding mistakes is critical. Remarkably, the Aztecs have played three straight games without committing a turnover—if they extend that streak, they’ll give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter.

Defensively, San Diego State must generate pressure on Sagapolutele. Washington State found success against them by spreading the field and moving quickly, so the Aztecs can’t allow Cal’s freshman to dictate rhythm. A couple of timely sacks or third-down stops could force the Golden Bears into uncomfortable situations and give SDSU the opening they need.

The Lean

Oddsmakers have made California a modest road favorite at -4.5, with the total set at 48.5 points. The Golden Bears have looked more polished on both sides of the ball, especially with Sagapolutele’s steady start. Meanwhile, San Diego State comes in rested after a bye but still searching for consistency.

The number suggests a close contest, but Cal’s efficiency through the air and defensive playmaking tilt the edge their way. The safer play is Cal -4.5, with a lean toward the under given SDSU’s conservative style and Cal’s ability to limit big plays. A projected score of 27-17 favors the Golden Bears to remain unbeaten.

Game Preview Recap

California enters with momentum after a 27-14 win over Minnesota in which Sagapolutele threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns. His ability to stay composed against a Big Ten defense only reinforced his early-season confidence. Coach Justin Wilcox praised his freshman’s poise, calling his demeanor and understanding of the offense “impressive.”

San Diego State, at 1-1, is regrouping after a 36-13 loss to Washington State. Coach Sean Lewis emphasized the bye week as a chance to reset and prepare wrinkles Cal hasn’t yet seen. The Aztecs’ ground game remains their strength, but their defense must rise to the challenge against one of the hottest young quarterbacks in the country.

The turnover battle looms large. Masses’ three interceptions highlight Cal’s knack for flipping possessions, while the Aztecs’ streak of three straight turnover-free games is among the longest in recent FBS history. Something has to give Saturday night.

Recent Matchups

Both programs know the stakes—Cal chasing 4-0 for the first time in years, San Diego State looking to prove it belongs against a Pac-12 opponent. For bettors, this game offers intrigue on scores and odds and is a worthy addition to any weekend slate alongside insights from the NFL betting guide.