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Game Preview: Miami vs SMU
The Miami Hurricanes face a familiar foe when they visit the SMU Mustangs on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The matchup marks Miami’s first meeting with its former offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee since he left to take over SMU — and both programs enter with major ACC implications on the line.
Miami (6-1, 2-1 ACC) remains in the College Football Playoff conversation after dismantling Stanford 42-7 last week. The Hurricanes erupted for 35 second-half points behind a rejuvenated rushing attack led by Mark Fletcher Jr. (552 yards, 9 TDs). Quarterback Carson Beck bounced back from a rough outing against Louisville, completing 18 of 24 passes for 205 yards and two scores.
SMU (5-3, 3-1 ACC) is looking to rebound after a frustrating 13-12 loss at Wake Forest, where the offense failed to find rhythm. Lashlee called it the “worst offensive performance” since he took over the program in 2022, as the Mustangs turned the ball over three times and managed just 246 total yards.
This game carries added emotional weight. Lashlee, who coordinated Miami’s offense from 2020 to 2021, now faces the defense he helped build. His starting quarterback, Kevin Jennings, leads the ACC with 17 passing touchdowns, while former Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke and receiver Romello Brinson now wear Mustang red.
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Line Movement and Odds
Miami opened as a 12.5-point road favorite, with the total at 50.5. The line has held steady, reflecting confidence in Miami’s defense and skepticism over SMU’s offensive consistency.
Track movement and consensus projections anytime via the college football odds board and see expert breakdowns on the NCAAF picks page.
Miami Hurricanes Outlook
The Miami Hurricanes are back on track after last week’s rout. The offense rediscovered balance, racking up 404 total yards against Stanford while the defense delivered another dominant effort, allowing just 89 passing yards.
Quarterback Carson Beck (1,673 yards, 12 TDs) leads a unit that’s 42nd nationally in scoring, while running back Mark Fletcher Jr. continues to headline the ground game. Miami’s receiving corps features breakout freshman Malachi Toney, who ranks third in the ACC in receiving yards per game (80.3).
Defensively, Miami is elite — top 10 nationally in scoring defense (14.1 ppg), top 10 in rushing defense, and 24th in passing yards allowed. The Hurricanes’ front seven is disruptive, ranking 16th in sacks (15) and 8th in interceptions (7). Their ability to pressure Jennings will define this matchup.
Miami Hurricanes Injury Report
- Akheem Mesidor (DL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Bobby Washington Jr. (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Chance Robinson (WR) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Jackson Carver (TE) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Demetrius Campbell (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
SMU Mustangs Outlook
The SMU Mustangs return home hoping to rekindle the offensive spark that defined their 2024 playoff run. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a steady presence (2,119 yards, 17 TDs), though the Mustangs have slipped to 50th nationally in scoring at 31.4 points per game.
Running back TJ Harden anchors the ground attack (455 yards, 5 TDs), while the defense remains an underrated strength — ranking top 10 in sacks and top 15 in interceptions. That aggressive style helped SMU dominate Stanford earlier in the year (34-10) but backfired last week with three critical turnovers.
Facing Miami’s speed and physicality, SMU must protect Jennings and find rhythm early. Lashlee’s familiarity with the Hurricanes’ tendencies could provide a schematic edge, but execution will determine if the Mustangs can pull off the upset.
SMU Mustangs Injury Report
- Aakil Washington (DL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Cameron Robertson (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Jonathan Jefferson (DL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Justin Medlock (LB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (DB) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
- Alex Woods (OL) – Questionable (Undisclosed)
Key Matchup / Path to Victory
Miami’s defensive front versus SMU’s offensive line is the game’s defining battle. If Jennings has time to throw, SMU’s receivers can challenge Miami’s secondary. But if the Hurricanes’ pass rush — led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Francisco Mauigoa — controls the trenches, the Mustangs will struggle to sustain drives.
For Miami, ball security is paramount. Beck’s four interceptions against Louisville nearly derailed the season, and SMU ranks among the ACC’s best at forcing turnovers. Establishing Fletcher and the ground game early will help neutralize SMU’s defensive blitz packages.
Betting Trends
- Miami is 17-3 straight up in its last 20 games.
- The Hurricanes are 16-3 straight up as favorites in their last 19.
- SMU is 9-0 straight up after a loss.
- The Mustangs are 25-5 in their last 30 games overall.
- Miami is 15-2 straight up in games with totals of 50 or higher.
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Prediction
This matchup features two talented, well-coached teams with opposing strengths. SMU’s home field and Lashlee’s familiarity with Miami’s personnel should keep it competitive early, but the Hurricanes’ defense is too dominant to fade. Expect Miami to pull away late behind Fletcher’s ground game and timely turnovers from its secondary.
Projected Score: Miami 34, SMU 20
Best Bet: Miami -12.5
Total Lean: Over 50.5
Scores and Stats Handicappers
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