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Florida State Seminoles vs Stanford Cardinal Betting Preview
The Florida State Seminoles will look to end a frustrating three-game skid when they visit the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday night in Week 8 of the college football season. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 PM ET at Stanford Stadium, with the game airing nationally on ESPN.
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Florida State (3-3, 0-3 ACC) started the season strong, opening 3-0 with an upset win over Alabama, but has since dropped three straight ACC matchups. Stanford (2-4, 1-2) is also searching for stability after back-to-back conference losses but has yet to lose at home this season (2-0).
Florida State Fighting to End Its Slide
The Seminoles are coming off a 34-31 home loss to Pittsburgh as double-digit favorites — their eighth consecutive ACC defeat. Coach Mike Norvell acknowledged the team’s missed opportunities and inconsistency. “We had a lot of chances to win that game,” he said. “We didn’t finish.”
Despite the losses, Florida State continues to produce on offense. The Seminoles rank fifth nationally in both points scored and rushing yards, piling up 1,655 yards on the ground through six games. Running back Gavin Sawchuk leads the way, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with five touchdowns.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has provided balance through the air, managing games efficiently and avoiding turnovers. Florida State’s attack averages 34.5 points per game — enough to stay competitive in most matchups.
Defensively, the Seminoles are still dangerous up front, ranking 10th in the nation with 16 sacks. Linebackers DJ Lundy and Omar Graham Jr. have been standout contributors, combining for 8.5 tackles for loss. However, the secondary has struggled, allowing over 320 passing yards last week and 11 touchdown passes this season — 13th in the ACC.
To regain control of their season, Florida State must pressure Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson early and reestablish dominance on the ground.
For updated numbers and odds, visit the college football odds page.
Stanford Hoping to Stay Perfect at Home
Stanford’s 34-10 loss to SMU last week wasn’t as one-sided as it appeared. A called-back touchdown and a late pick-six sealed the result, but the Cardinal showed flashes of competitiveness throughout the game. Interim coach Frank Reich took positives from the effort. “If we punch that one in, I feel like the momentum’s on our side,” Reich said.
Quarterback Ben Gulbranson continues to be a bright spot. He’s thrown for 1,445 yards this season — including six touchdown passes in his last four games — and has improved decision-making after a rough start. Wide receiver CJ Williams remains his top target, hauling in 412 yards and three touchdowns, ranking among the ACC’s top receivers.
Stanford’s defense has produced in spurts, ranking 14th in the nation in sacks (12) and fifth in fumble recoveries (4). Linebacker Tristan Sinclair and defensive end David Bailey have provided leadership for a young unit that’s still finding its rhythm.
At home, Stanford has played much cleaner football, beating San Jose State 30-29 and holding opponents to 23 points per game. The Cardinal’s passing offense (58th nationally) can keep them within striking distance — but they’ll need to limit Florida State’s run game to stay in it.
You can find matchup data and expert trends in the college football betting guide.
Line Movement and Odds
According to the latest college football picks, Florida State opened as a 17.5-point favorite with the total set at 53.5. Bettors have largely backed the Seminoles to bounce back, though some early sharp money has appeared on Stanford +17.5.
Florida State has hit the over in five straight games as a favorite, while Stanford has gone over the total in all three home contests this season.
Matchup Breakdown
Florida State Seminoles Outlook
Florida State’s key to victory lies in establishing early rhythm on the ground. The Seminoles average 275 rushing yards per game in wins but just 119 in losses. If Castellanos can effectively mix play-action and short passes, the Seminoles should exploit Stanford’s vulnerable secondary.
The defense must also clean up coverage issues — allowing an average of 7.4 yards per attempt has cost them multiple games. Edge pressure from Jared Verse and Patrick Payton will be crucial against Gulbranson.
Stanford Cardinal Outlook
Stanford’s game plan will likely center around quick passes and play-action to offset Florida State’s pass rush. Gulbranson’s chemistry with CJ Williams could test the Seminoles’ secondary, while running back Casey Filkins looks to build on his 80-yard performance last week.
Defensively, Stanford needs to stack the box to slow down Sawchuk and force Castellanos into passing situations. The Cardinal’s 12 sacks show they can generate pressure but maintaining gap integrity against a mobile quarterback will be key.
Key Edge
Florida State has the offensive balance and depth advantage, but Stanford’s undefeated home record and late-game fight make them a tricky underdog. The Seminoles’ defense has shown vulnerability against the pass — and Stanford’s air attack could take advantage early.
Betting Trends
- Florida State is 24-6 straight-up as a favorite in its last 30 games.
- Florida State has hit the over in all 5 recent games as a favorite.
- Stanford is 3-0 straight-up in its last 3 home games.
- Stanford has hit the over in all 3 recent home contests.
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Best Bets and Prediction
Both teams have plenty to prove, but Florida State’s superior rushing attack and pressure defense should be too much for Stanford over four quarters. Expect a competitive first half before the Seminoles pull away late.
Projected Score: Florida State 38, Stanford 17
Best Bet: Florida State -17.5
Secondary Lean: Over 53.5
For more analysis, betting tools, and matchup insights, visit ScoresAndStats College Football.
