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San Jose State vs Stanford Betting Preview
The Stanford Cardinal will try to start 2-0 at home for the first time since 2018 when they host the San Jose State Spartans on Saturday evening in Palo Alto. Stanford (1-3, 0-2 ACC) looked sharp in its lone home game, a 30-20 win over Boston College, but the momentum fizzled last week in a 48-20 road loss at Virginia.
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San Jose State (1-2) comes in off a tight 31-28 victory over Idaho. The Spartans won last year’s matchup 34-31, and they return a veteran defensive unit that should test Stanford’s offensive consistency.
Oddsmakers have opened Stanford as a –4.5 home favorite, with a total around 52 points.
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Line Movement and Odds
- Spread: Stanford –4.5 → –5
- Moneyline: Stanford –195 / San Jose State +160
- Total: 52 (opened 51.5)
Public bettors are backing Stanford at home, but sharp money has split, with some interest in the Spartans after last season’s head-to-head win. The total has crept up half a point, showing early over interest.
Stanford’s strengths have been its defense (10 sacks, 2 TDs already) and explosive playmakers like Micah Ford on the ground and receivers Bryce Farrell and CJ Williams, both coming off 100-yard games. QB Ben Gulbranson has been steady but not spectacular, with 3 TDs and 3 INTs. His development could decide this matchup.
San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget has leaned on WR Danny Scudero (22 catches, 379 yards), while RB Jabari Bates emerged last week with 131 yards against Idaho.
Matchup Breakdown
Stanford outlook:
The Cardinal defense can pressure Eget, but the offense needs more balance. Gulbranson must finish drives and cut turnovers. Ford’s rushing consistency will help them control the tempo.
San Jose State outlook:
The Spartans’ defense is physical at the line and capable of slowing Stanford’s run game. Offensively, Bates provides spark, while Scudero is a matchup problem for Stanford’s secondary. If Eget gets time, the Spartans can trade blows.
Key battle:
Stanford’s pass rush vs. San Jose State’s protection. The Cardinal thrive when collapsing the pocket, but the Spartans’ quick-hit passing game could neutralize that edge.
Injuries and Conditions
Stanford Cardinal
- QB Ben Gulbranson (healthy, but inconsistent production)
- RB Micah Ford (workhorse, no injury designation)
- No major absences reported
San Jose State Spartans
- QB Walker Eget (starter, no designation)
- RB Jabari Bates (emerging role, healthy)
- No new injuries reported
Weather: Forecast calls for clear skies and mild evening temperatures in Palo Alto, ideal football conditions.
Best Bets and Prediction
Pick: Stanford –4.5
Projected final score: Stanford 30, San Jose State 24
Total lean: Over 52
Why it cashes:
Stanford’s pass rush and balanced offense at home give them the upper hand. The Spartans’ defense is gritty, but their offense relies too heavily on chunk plays. At home, Stanford should control enough possessions to cover a tight spread.
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Best Bets and Prediction
| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Stanford –4.5 |
| Confidence | ★★★☆☆ |
| Projected Score | Stanford 30, San Jose State 24 |
| Total Lean | Over 52 |
| Market Split | ~60% of bets on Stanford, sharper money mixed |
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