Tcu Horned Frogs vs Smu Mustangs Picks and Predictions September 20th 2025

TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs September 20th 2025

The SMU Mustangs travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 4 of the 2025 regular season. The game will be held at Amon G. Carter Stadium, an outdoor venue, and is set to kick off at 12:00 PM. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN2.

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SMU enters the game with a 2-1 record, having won their only road game so far. TCU, on the other hand, is undefeated with a 2-0 record, including a home victory. This matchup is part of a long-standing rivalry, with each team having secured wins in recent years. Last season, SMU defeated TCU 66-42, while TCU won the 2023 encounter 34-17.

SMU vs TCU CFB Key Information

• Sport: College Football
• Teams: SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX
• Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
• Betting Odds: SMU Moneyline +209, TCU Moneyline -256, SMU Spread +7.0 (-112), TCU Spread -7.0 (-107), Total Over 64.5 (-109), Total Under 64.5 (-112)

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TCU, SMU clash in final ‘Battle for the Iron Skillet’

The TCU Horned Frogs and SMU Mustangs meet Saturday in Fort Worth for the last scheduled edition of the “Battle for the Iron Skillet.” TCU leads the historic rivalry 53-43-7, but SMU won last year’s high-scoring shootout. With both teams carrying momentum into Week 4, the rivalry finale doubles as a pivotal test for bettors analyzing college football picks.

Betting Odds and Trends

The SMU Mustangs Can Win If…

The SMU Mustangs are coming off a strong 28-10 win over Missouri State, powered by Kevin Jennings’ 281 passing yards and TJ Harden’s 167 rushing yards. Their defense made the difference, forcing three interceptions and holding the Bears to just 53 rushing yards. That combination of balance and opportunism is their key to upsetting the Frogs.

Statistically, SMU has shown consistency. The Mustangs rank 23rd nationally in points scored and Jennings sits 21st in passing yards with 836. The defense has been disruptive, ranking 6th in both sacks and interceptions, a profile that could rattle Josh Hoover and TCU’s passing game.

Playmakers Romello Brinson (314 receiving yards, three TDs) and Harden (253 rushing yards, five TDs) headline the offense. If Jennings continues to spread the ball and the defense creates turnovers, SMU has the tools to extend their rivalry run.

The TCU Horned Frogs Can Win If…

The TCU Horned Frogs looked sharp in their 42-21 victory over Abilene Christian, led by Josh Hoover’s 361 passing yards. Hoover has already thrown for 621 yards and six touchdowns this season, giving coach Sonny Dykes a reliable passing leader. Keeping turnovers minimal—as they did last week with just one interception—will be key.

TCU’s offense is balanced but has leaned on Hoover’s arm. Wide receiver Jordan Dwyer has stepped up with 225 yards and two touchdowns, giving the Frogs a dangerous vertical option. If they keep pace early, they can stretch SMU’s defense thin.

Defensively, TCU has been efficient, ranking 21st in points allowed. With SMU’s offense rolling, the Horned Frogs must limit explosive plays from Brinson and Harden. If they control the red zone and force SMU into field goals, they’ll put themselves in position to claim the rivalry finale.

The Lean

The spread sits at TCU -7.0, but SMU has been strong as an underdog, going 3-0 ATS in its last three such games. The model projects TCU to win 31-27, giving value to SMU +7.0 on the spread.

With the total set at 64.5, both defenses could slow things down more than expected. TCU has allowed just 35 points all year, and SMU’s defense ranks mid-pack but opportunistic. The under looks like the sharper play, with a projected combined score of 58 points.

Game Preview Recap

This year’s “Iron Skillet” carries extra emotion, with no future meetings scheduled. TCU opted out to add more home games, leaving Saturday’s clash as the rivalry’s final chapter for now.

SMU won last year’s game 66-42 in a shootout, but both teams are different this season. The Mustangs rely on Jennings’ steady passing and Harden’s explosiveness, while the defense has proven capable of swinging games with turnovers. Coach Rhett Lashlee admitted the team has been inconsistent, but still sees “a lot of potential” in this group.

TCU, celebrating coach Sonny Dykes’ 100th career win last week, is looking to keep building momentum at home. Hoover has been excellent in two starts, and while the team may be without leading rusher Kevorian Barnes due to a lower-body injury, the passing game has been potent enough to carry the load.

With history, emotion, and betting value on both sides, the Iron Skillet finale promises fireworks in Fort Worth.

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