Texas Longhorns vs Michigan Wolverines Picks and Predictions December 31st 2025

Texas Longhorns vs Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

Texas Longhorns enter the Citrus Bowl with a 9-3 record, led by QB Arch Manning and a defense ranked top-five in sacks. Michigan Wolverines also stand at 9-3, navigating coaching turmoil but leaning on freshman QB Bryce Underwood and a strong rushing attack. Both teams aim to close out 2025 with momentum in Orlando.

Line Movement and Odds

Texas opened as a -5.5 favorite, with market support steady. Public lean favors the Longhorns’ defensive front, but Michigan’s ATS record after losses has drawn sharp interest.

• Texas Spread: -5.5 (-109)
• Michigan Spread: +5.5 (-112)
• Texas MoneyLine: -197
• Michigan MoneyLine: +163
• Total: 46.5 (-110)

For broader market context, check the latest college football odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Texas Outlook

QB Arch Manning leads the Longhorns with nearly 3,000 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, supported by WR Ryan Wingo’s 697 receiving yards. Texas ranks top-15 nationally in scoring and top-five in sacks, giving them disruptive defensive power. Despite multiple opt-outs at RB, their balanced offense and defensive line provide a path to victory.

Michigan Outlook

QB Bryce Underwood headlines the Wolverines with over 2,200 passing yards and dual-threat ability, while RB Jordan Marshall adds 932 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Michigan’s defense ranks top-15 in sacks and interceptions, giving them disruptive potential. Their ability to control tempo on the ground is critical to covering the spread.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The game hinges on Texas’ defensive front against Michigan’s rushing attack. If the Longhorns pressure Underwood and force turnovers, they control tempo. Michigan must lean on Marshall’s efficiency and defensive resilience to stay inside the number.

Injuries / Availability

Texas lists LB Anthony Hill Jr. questionable, while RB Quintrevion Wisner and S Michael Taaffe have opted out.

Michigan has multiple starters questionable, including LB Ernest Hausmann and RB Justice Haynes, while DE Derrick Moore has opted out.

Environment

Camping World Stadium provides a neutral-site setting, though Texas’ SEC pedigree and Michigan’s Big Ten resilience add intrigue. Both teams face roster challenges, but playoff-level intensity ensures a competitive atmosphere. Weather conditions are stable, keeping execution clean.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Texas 24, Michigan 21

• Michigan +5.5 → Best Bet. Strong ATS record after losses and rushing balance give them cover potential.
• Under 46.5 → Playable. Both defenses rank top-25 nationally, pointing to a lower-scoring contest.

Expect a competitive game with Texas’ defense providing the difference, but Michigan’s resilience keeping it close. The projected score supports the underdog cover and a lean to the under.

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