Ucla Bruins vs New Mexico Lobos Picks and Predictions September 12th 2025

UCLA vs New Mexico Picks and Predictions — September 12, 2025

The UCLA Bruins return to the Rose Bowl searching for their first win under DeShaun Foster, while the New Mexico Lobos aim to build momentum after their first victory of the season.

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Opening Odds: UCLA -16.5, New Mexico +16.5, Total 54.0

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The UCLA Bruins Can Win If…

The Bruins need to start fast. In their loss at UNLV, they fell behind 23-3 before mounting a late rally. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava showed progress with 255 passing yards and a TD, but turnovers and sluggish drives crippled their first-half efforts.

Defensively, UCLA must improve on third down. Opponents are converting at a staggering 70.4% rate, one of the worst marks in the nation. If the Bruins’ defensive front can control the line and limit explosive plays, UCLA’s offense should have enough firepower to cover the spread.

The New Mexico Lobos Can Win If…

New Mexico’s path to an upset runs through the ground game. Running back Scottre Humphrey rushed for 141 yards and two scores last week, powering a comeback win. If the Lobos can establish the run early, they can chew clock and keep Iamaleava off the field.

Coach Jason Eck has emphasized toughness at the line of scrimmage, but his offense will be tested against UCLA’s large defensive front. Quarterback play remains inconsistent, so keeping the game close relies heavily on Humphrey and the run game.

Key Betting Trends

The Lean

Model Projection: UCLA 31, New Mexico 17
Pick: New Mexico +16.5
Total Lean: Under 54.0

UCLA should grab its first win, but their offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses make them risky to back as heavy favorites. New Mexico’s rushing attack gives them a chance to keep it within two scores.

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