Vanderbilt Commodores vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Predictions December 31st 2025

Vanderbilt Commodores vs Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores enter the ReliaQuest Bowl with a program-record 10 wins, led by QB Diego Pavia in his final collegiate game. Iowa Hawkeyes arrive with an elite defense and veteran QB Mark Gronowski, aiming to close out their season with a statement win in Tampa.

Line Movement and Odds

Vanderbilt opened as a -6 favorite, with market support steady. Public lean favors the Commodores’ offensive firepower, but Iowa’s ATS record as an underdog has drawn sharp interest.

• Vanderbilt Spread: -6.0 (-109)
• Iowa Spread: +6.0 (-110)
• Vanderbilt MoneyLine: -224
• Iowa MoneyLine: +183
• Total: 49.5 (-110)

For broader market context, check the latest college football odds page.

Matchup Breakdown

Vanderbilt Outlook

QB Diego Pavia headlines the Commodores with 3,192 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 826 rushing yards. Vanderbilt ranks top-20 nationally in scoring and passing, while their defense adds 30 sacks and 14 forced turnovers. Despite TE Eli Stowers opting out, Vanderbilt’s offensive balance and defensive disruption provide a path to victory.

Iowa Outlook

QB Mark Gronowski drives the Hawkeyes with dual-threat ability, including a program-record 15 rushing touchdowns. RB Kamari Moulton adds 783 rushing yards, while Iowa’s defense ranks top-10 nationally in total yards allowed and interceptions. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks and control tempo is a key edge.

Key Matchup / Path to Victory

The game hinges on Iowa’s defensive front against Pavia’s mobility. If the Hawkeyes contain Vanderbilt’s passing attack, they stay competitive. Vanderbilt must lean on explosive plays and turnover margin to secure the win.

Injuries / Availability

Vanderbilt lists RB Chase Gillespie and DL Yilanan Ouattara as questionable, while TE Eli Stowers has opted out.

Iowa has DB TJ Hall and WR Jarriett Buie questionable, while TE Addison Ostrenga is out.

Environment

Raymond James Stadium provides a neutral-site setting, though Iowa’s bowl history in Tampa adds familiarity. Vanderbilt’s momentum from a record-setting season fuels confidence. Weather conditions are stable, keeping execution clean.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected Final Score: Vanderbilt 28, Iowa 24

• Iowa +6.0 → Best Bet. Strong ATS record as underdog and defensive resilience give them cover potential.
• Under 49.5 → Playable. Both defenses rank top-25 nationally, pointing to a lower-scoring contest.

Expect a competitive game with Vanderbilt’s offense providing the difference, but Iowa’s defense keeping it close. The projected score supports the underdog cover and a lean to the under.

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