Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Picks and Predictions – Monday December 29, 2025

The Los Angeles Rams head to Atlanta for the final regular-season Monday Night Football game, with kickoff set for 8:15 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Rams are 11-4 and still have a thin path to the NFC West title, but it’s real enough that they have to treat this like a playoff game. Atlanta is 6-9 and eliminated, yet the Falcons have played their best football in prime-time spots, which makes this a little more annoying than the records suggest.

Los Angeles is coming off an extended break after a brutal overtime loss in Seattle where the defense couldn’t close the door late. The good news for the Rams is that the offense travels. It’s been the most productive unit in the league, and it’s built around a QB and pass-catchers who can create explosives without needing perfect conditions.

For Atlanta, the motivation is different. This is about finishing strong, keeping rhythm with Kirk Cousins, and letting Bijan Robinson keep stacking a season that has basically been the one bright, consistent thing for them. Indoors, under the lights, in front of a home crowd that wants a reason to care. That can be enough to keep a big spread uncomfortable.

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated NFL odds leading into kickoff. Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds as injury news and late-week practice reports can move the market.

Team	Moneyline	Spread	Total
Los Angeles Rams	-520	-8.5 (-104)	O 49.5 (-112)
Atlanta Falcons	+390	+8.5 (-118)	U 49.5 (-108)

Los Angeles Rams Betting Form

The Rams are priced like a team that can score on anyone, and honestly, that’s been the story. They’re leading the league in points and sitting near the top in yardage, with Matthew Stafford playing like an MVP front-runner and the pass game staying explosive even when defenses know what’s coming. Puka Nacua is still the chain-mover and the chunk-play guy, and Davante Adams gives them a red-zone finisher who changes how you have to cover condensed formations.

The betting angle with Los Angeles is whether you want to pay for that offense when the defense has shown cracks. They’ve allowed 36 points per game over the last two games, and the recent tape looks like a unit that can get stretched horizontally, then gashed vertically when the pass rush doesn’t get home quickly. Against a Falcons offense that has an elite all-purpose back and a veteran QB, that matters. The Rams can still cover, but it may require four quarters of offense, not two and a half.

If you want the broader team profile, matchup stats, and recent results in one place, check out Los Angeles Rams stats and results. Availability is a big part of this handicap, so monitor the Los Angeles Rams injury report before kickoff, especially along the offensive line and in the secondary.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Form

Atlanta’s season is what it is at 6-9, but the offense isn’t empty. Bijan Robinson has been the engine, not only as a runner but as a space player who can flip drives when he gets matched on linebackers. Cousins has also played better recently, and that matters against a Rams defense that has been leaky late in games. If Atlanta is going to hang around, it’s usually by staying on schedule, leaning on Bijan to create manageable third downs, and turning the red zone into touchdowns instead of field goals.

The betting issue with the Falcons is consistency. They’ve had stretches where the offense stalls, and when that happens the game script can get ugly because they’re forced to throw into predictable windows. Still, this is indoors, and that generally helps Atlanta’s passing game and the timing stuff. If the Falcons can avoid early negative plays, they’re capable of putting up enough points to threaten a big number.

For more context on how Atlanta has performed, along with splits and recent results, use Atlanta Falcons schedule and stats. And because availability can swing the way Atlanta protects and covers, keep an eye on the Atlanta Falcons injury report leading into Monday.

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup Breakdown

This game starts with the Rams’ passing game versus Atlanta’s ability to survive on the back end. Los Angeles wants to spread you out, force one-on-ones, and let Stafford pick matchups. If Atlanta can’t generate pressure without blitzing, Stafford will have time to let those deeper routes develop. And if Atlanta does blitz, the Rams have enough quick answers to turn it into easy yards and keep the chains moving.

The Falcons’ best counter is to make this game about Bijan and the run fit. Los Angeles has to tackle well and play gap sound, because Atlanta doesn’t need 10-play drives if Bijan is creating explosives on checkdowns and outside runs. The more Atlanta can stay balanced, the more it can keep the Rams from playing full-speed, pass-first offense every snap. That’s also the clearest way to cover +8.5. Shorten the game, avoid turnovers, and keep Stafford on the sideline.

Environment matters here, and it’s a big reason the total is high. Mercedes-Benz Stadium is indoors on a fast surface, so wind is basically off the board and passing efficiency tends to play up. Kicking is cleaner too, which reduces the “missed points” variance you sometimes get outdoors in late December. If you want a framework for how indoor environments change totals, especially in prime-time games with public money, the NFL betting guide lays it out well.

The last piece is motivation and game state. The Rams have to win, and they’re going to keep the pedal down if the game stays within reach. Atlanta is playing spoiler, but it’s still an offense-first roster. If the Falcons fall behind by two scores, they’ll throw, which tends to create either quick points or short fields the other way. That’s part of why this matchup can snowball into a high-scoring finish.

Los Angeles Rams vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions and Best Bets

My lean is toward the Rams, but I’m not in love with laying -8.5 on the road. The Rams can absolutely win this by 10-plus, yet this is the kind of number where one late Falcons touchdown turns a comfortable win into a bad spread result. Atlanta’s offense has enough life to create backdoor risk, especially indoors where Cousins can operate without weather interference.

If you want to bet the Rams side, I think the moneyline is basically unusable at -520 unless you’re building something bigger, and I don’t love tying multiple legs together this late in the season. The spread is the only real way to play Los Angeles, and it comes down to whether you believe the Rams’ defense can get enough stops to prevent Atlanta from hanging in the high 20s.

The total is where I see the cleaner angle. This number has already been pushed up, but I still think the over is more natural than the under. Los Angeles can score quickly, Atlanta has a star back who can create chunk gains without needing deep shots, and the indoor setting keeps the efficiency floor higher. I’m projecting a game that lives in the low 50s, something like Rams 31, Falcons 24, with both teams producing scoring drives rather than trading punts.

Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-112).

NFL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats

If you’re betting late-season NFL, it helps to compare multiple opinions because markets are sharper and injury news is constant. One of the easiest ways to keep your process tight is to scan today’s NFL picks and see where handicappers align or differ on the same side and total.

Long-term performance matters even more when the board is packed with motivation angles and late-week lineup shifts. The top sports handicappers page makes it easier to find proven track records, while the handicapper leaderboard keeps everything transparent if you’re deciding who to follow. If you want larger volume and more options than the free board, premium NFL picks can fit better than forcing action into every prime-time game. And if you’re tightening up your approach for the stretch run, the sports betting strategy guide is a good refresher on price discipline and line shopping.