Gillette Stadium Foxborough

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Pick & Prediction SEP 12TH 2021

NFL | FOOTBALL
TV: CBS
Logo Miami Dolphins
VS
Logo New England Patriots
46.5
OPENNER
-1.5

45.5o -110
CURRENT
-3.5 +100

+155
MONEYLINE
-175

17
SCORE
16

Are you ready for some football? The Miami Dolphins will travel to Gillette Stadium late Sunday afternoon to take on the New England Patriots in the season opener. The Miami Dolphins are hoping to see some improvements from now second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa after finishing the season with a 44.8 QBR (scale of 1-100 where 50 is considered average) in his rookie year.

He will be facing off against another former Alabama quarterback as rookie Mac Jones will be starting for the New England Patriots after they completely revamped the team last season. This game should be interesting between two divisional foes, so let’s dive into the matchup to determine where we should be betting here.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 1 Odds

TV: CBS

MONEY LINE: Dolphins (+130) vs. Patriots (-150)

SPREAD: Dolphins +3 (-120) vs. Patriots -3 (-110)

GAME TOTAL: Over 43.5 (-110) vs. Under 43.5 (-110)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Preview, Trends and Stats

The Miami Dolphins have the beginning of a good defense as they have experience in their secondary with strong safety Eric Rowe, free safety Jason McCourty, cornerback Byron Jones, and cornerback Xavien Howard.

That secondary can make any quarterback have issues finding open receivers, especially a rookie quarterback with the nerves of making their NFL debut. Last year’s Dolphins defense was tied for the NFL lead with 18 total interceptions during the regular season, so they have a high bar to match at the very least to help the offense have favorable field position.

The New England Patriots defense is healthy now with the return of the COVID opt-outs last season. This means the return of linebacker Dont’a Hightower, one of the best linebackers in the NFL.

They get back here and are looking to force teams to have empty possessions as last season they were 14th with 38.9 of their defensive drives ending with an offensive score. They need to be able to get the defense off the field on third down and not allow conversions.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread Prediction

It never felt like Bill Belichick bought into having Cam Newton be his starting quarterback, especially after drafting Mac Jones 15th overall. Jones had the most impressive preseason out of the first-round rookie quarterbacks and seems to be ready to play.

The playmakers around him should be able to help him along as the Patriots can run a two-TE set with Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, have Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers set as receivers, Damien Harris with either James White or rookie Rhamodre Stevenson in the backfield.

I don’t think the Miami Dolphins have enough in their secondary to stop Jones from having a good day in his NFL debut. I would go with the New England Patriots winning by a touchdown here, so they will cover the 3-point spread at home to kick off the season.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The New England Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. the Miami Dolphins.

2. The home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 games between these two.

3. The under has hit in five of the last seven games.

Best Bet: New England Patriots -3 (-110)

PREDICTION
Miami Dolphins
20
23
New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Cam Newton looked like his former self by scoring twice and amassing a combined 230 yards passing and rushing to lead the New England Patriots to a 21-11 season-opening win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Foxborough, Mass.

In his Patriots' debut, Newton showed signs of what New England (1-0) hoped for when they signed him to replace the departed Tom Brady as their starting quarterback.

Newton's ability to keep the Dolphins (0-1) off balance with zone-read options allowed the Patriots to seize control following a scoreless first quarter.

Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP for the Carolina Panthers, completed 15 of 19 passes for 155 yards and posted a 100.7 passer rating, while rushing for 75 yards on 15 carries. His rushing touchdowns from 4 and 11 yards out helped New England build a 14-3 lead with 10:14 to go in the third quarter.

The Patriots' defense, despite losing several players before the season both to free agency and opt outs due to COVID-19 concerns, intercepted Dolphins' quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick three times, including two in the first half by Stephon Gilmore and Adrian Phillips.

J.C. Jackson's interception in the end zone with 1:28 remaining in the fourth ended Miami's hopes of a late comeback.

Fitzpatrick, who completed 20 of 30 passes for 191 yards with no touchdowns and a 44.6 passer rating, played the entire game, as first-round draft pick Tua Tagovailoa watched from the sideline.

Newton's effectiveness opened up the Patriots' running game, which amassed 217 yards. Sony Michel also ran for 37 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. Newton nearly had a touchdown pass to add to his stat line late in the third, but receiver N'Keal Harry was stripped of the ball by Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker near the goal line resulting in a touchback.

The Dolphins cashed in with an 11-play, 80-yard drive capped by Jordan Howard's 1-yard touchdown run. Fitzpatrick followed with a 2-point conversion run that cut New England's lead to 14-11 with 10:31 left in the fourth. Howard was held to 7 yards on eight carries in his Dolphins' debut and Miami rushed for 87 yards, led by Myles Gaskin's 40 yards on nine carries.

But Newton answered by leading a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive during which he converted a fourth-and-1 at the Dolphins' 6-yard line before Michel's score.

Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker exited the game in the third quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return.

--Field Level Media

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