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Game Preview Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills head to South Florida looking to continue their AFC East surge against the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo has dominated this rivalry for years — winning 16 of the past 18 meetings — and enters Week 10 riding a seven-game streak against Miami.
At 6-2, Buffalo remains within striking distance of division-leading New England. Josh Allen continues to pace one of the league’s most complete offenses, while the defense is regaining form after a midseason slump. The Bills are fresh off a 28-21 win over Kansas City, reaffirming their contender status in the AFC.
Miami (2-7), meanwhile, is reeling. A 38-10 loss to Baltimore led to front-office upheaval — including the firing of longtime GM Chris Grier — and the trade of linebacker Jaelan Phillips. New interim GM Champ Kelly opted not to dismantle further, but the Dolphins’ depth has taken a major hit. Without Phillips and potentially edge rusher Chop Robinson (concussion protocol), stopping Allen becomes a daunting challenge.
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Odds and Key Information
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Spread | Bills -9.5 (-110), Dolphins +9.5 (-111) |
| Moneyline | Bills -496, Dolphins +379 |
| Total (O/U) | 50.0 points |
| Venue | Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) |
| Broadcast | CBS – Sunday, November 9, 1:00 PM ET |
| Weather | Warm and clear skies, typical South Florida humidity |
Buffalo enters as a heavy favorite thanks to its superior efficiency and defensive advantage. The total at 50.0 points suggests potential fireworks, especially given Miami’s defensive injuries. Check the NFL odds and scores page for real-time line movement.
Buffalo Bills Outlook
Josh Allen’s dominance over Miami is one of the NFL’s most lopsided storylines. The Bills quarterback holds a 13-2 career record against the Dolphins, with 3,950 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. His chemistry with tight end Dalton Kincaid has been building, and Kincaid’s 101-yard, one-touchdown effort versus Kansas City showed his value as a versatile weapon in Sean McDermott’s offense.
Buffalo ranks second in scoring offense and remains top five in total yards per game. Running back James Cook — currently second in the NFL in rushing yards (867) — could miss this matchup due to ankle and foot issues, but rookie Ray Davis is expected to step in.
Defensively, the Bills are elite at closing games, ranking top five in sacks and interceptions. Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa headline a unit capable of flipping momentum instantly. The main concern is health — with several starters, including Taron Johnson and DaQuan Jones, battling lower-body injuries.
Bills Injury Report
DaQuan Jones (DT) – Calf – Questionable
Shaq Thompson (LB) – Hamstring – Questionable
Taron Johnson (CB) – Groin – Questionable
Ed Oliver (DT) – Biceps – Out
Taylor Rapp (S) – Knee – Out
Tyler Bass (K) – Hip/Groin – Out
Joshua Palmer (WR) – Knee/Ankle – Questionable
Get deeper injury-based market impact analysis in the NFL expert betting guide.
Miami Dolphins Outlook
The Dolphins’ recent slide has been as mental as it is physical. Miami’s offense, built on speed and spacing, has struggled with rhythm and consistency. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 261 yards against Baltimore but saw limited protection as the team continues to juggle personnel on the offensive line.
Jaylen Waddle remains a steady target (82 yards last week), but the absence of Tyreek Hill (knee) limits Miami’s ability to stretch defenses vertically. De’Von Achane has carried the rushing load with 606 yards and explosive plays, but without balance, defenses have keyed in on his quickness.
Defensively, the Dolphins rank fourth in opponent yards allowed, but injuries across the front seven — particularly at edge rusher — could expose them against Buffalo’s balanced attack. Rookie Andre Carter II, recently signed from Detroit’s practice squad, may see action to bolster the depleted front.
Dolphins Injury Report
Tyreek Hill (WR) – Knee – Out
Rasul Douglas (CB) – Toe – Questionable
Jason Sanders (K) – Hip – Out
Alexander Mattison (RB) – Neck – Out
James Daniels (G) – Pectoral – Out
Ashtyn Davis (S) – Quad – Questionable
Austin Jackson (OL) – Toe – Out
Darren Waller (TE) – Pectoral – Out
Explore injury-adjusted betting models in props betting guide.
Key Matchup Table
| Key Category | Edge |
|---|---|
| Quarterback Play | Bills |
| Offensive Depth | Bills |
| Defensive Front | Bills |
| Passing Efficiency | Bills |
| Explosiveness | Dolphins |
| Coaching Stability | Bills |
Buffalo’s offensive balance and defensive pressure make them the clear favorite. Miami’s hope lies in Tua’s quick passing game neutralizing Buffalo’s blitz and Achane producing on the perimeter.
Betting Trends
- Bills are 4-0 straight-up in their last 4 games with totals of 50+.
- Bills are 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games.
- Bills are 4-1 ATS when the total is 50 or higher.
- Dolphins are 5-0-1 to the over after a loss.
- Dolphins are 6-1-1 to the over in 2025.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
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Predictions
Buffalo’s consistency and dominance over Miami make the Bills difficult to fade. Even without James Cook, Allen’s playmaking and the Bills’ defensive depth create mismatches across the field. Miami may keep it competitive early, but the Dolphins’ depleted pass rush and missing deep threat tilt the advantage heavily toward Buffalo.
Projected Score: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
Spread Pick: Bills -9.5
Total Lean: Over 50.0
For verified expert picks, visit the Handicappers Leaderboard and follow model-based updates throughout Week 10.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Post-deadline volatility creates unique market inefficiencies — exactly the kind of situations professional bettors target. The verified Handicappers Leaderboard provides transparency across ROI and pick accuracy, letting bettors identify sharp consensus plays.
In matchups like this, player absences can exaggerate line movement. Use expert data models and responsible gambling tips to stay ahead of market swings and manage exposure effectively.
MetLife Stadium’s cold, wet conditions and two rebuilding rosters make this one a grinder — but for bettors, there’s value in analyzing resilience and trend consistency beyond the headlines.
