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Missouri State heads to Murfreesboro for a Conference USA matchup against Middle Tennessee on Saturday, January 17, 2026, at 6:00 PM ET at the Murphy Athletic Center. The game streams on ESPN+. Both teams are 10-7, but they’ve gotten there in very different ways. Missouri State has struggled away from home at 1-5, while Middle Tennessee has been steadier in its building at 7-3, which is why the Blue Raiders are laying 7.5.
This is the kind of line that asks a question about style. Missouri State can score enough to keep it close, and they can manufacture points at the stripe, but Middle Tennessee tends to slow games down and make you execute. With a total of 139.5, the market is also leaning toward a more controlled, half-court script, and that matters when you’re trying to cover a 7.5-point number.
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Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated college basketball odds before tipoff. For the latest college basketball odds and any late movement, check closer to game time.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State Bears | +256 | +7.5 (-112) | O 139.5 (-109) |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | -341 | -7.5 (-110) | U 139.5 (-116) |
Missouri State Bears Betting Form
Missouri State is coming off an 87-72 loss to Western Kentucky, and while the defense didn’t hold up, the offensive pieces still showed. Keith Palek III went for 24 and shot well, and Michael Osei-Bonsu gave them a useful two-way presence with 13 points and seven boards. That’s basically what Missouri State needs on the road: at least one primary scorer creating offense without needing everything to be perfect around him.
The Bears average 75.2 points per game and have a real path to staying close because they get to the line. Ranking 51st in free throw attempts per game matters in a spread this size. Free throws shorten the game, keep you from going empty on possessions, and they create that annoying “down 6 with 90 seconds left” situation that underdogs need to cover. The issue is the 1-5 road record. Missouri State has been a different team away from home, and when the offense isn’t flowing early, they can get stuck playing from behind without many easy points.
For a broader view of Missouri State’s results and splits, Missouri State stats and results are useful context.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Form
Middle Tennessee is coming off a 59-58 loss to Louisiana Tech, and that score tells you what they want to do. They’re comfortable in a slower game where every possession matters. Kamari Lands and Jahvin Carter didn’t have huge numbers, but that kind of grind is where Middle Tennessee tends to be most stable, especially at home.
At the Murphy Athletic Center, they’ve been much more reliable at 7-3. They also have enough perimeter shooting to punish teams that overhelp, hitting 9.6 threes per game. What I like for a favorite is the discipline. Allowing only 10.4 turnovers per game suggests they don’t beat themselves. That reduces the cheap points that keep underdogs alive. And with Torey Alston rebounding and cleaning possessions, Middle Tennessee can win the shot and possession battle without needing an elite shooting night.
Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is a pace fight. Missouri State would prefer a game with enough possessions to let their scoring and free-throw pressure accumulate. Middle Tennessee would rather keep it controlled, limit transition, and force Missouri State to execute in the half court for long stretches. If Middle Tennessee dictates tempo, it becomes harder for Missouri State to cover because you just don’t get many chances to create separation or erase small deficits.
The spread also interacts with the total. At 139.5, you’re not projecting a track meet. In lower-possession games, 7.5 points is a heavier number than it looks, because a four-minute scoring drought can decide the cover either way. Missouri State’s foul-drawing ability is the main reason the underdog can stay within range even if they’re not playing great. Trips to the line stop the clock, keep points coming, and can set up a late cover.
On the other side, Middle Tennessee’s ball security matters a lot. If they aren’t turning it over, Missouri State loses the easiest cover fuel, runouts. Then you’re relying on half-court offense to keep pace, which is tougher on the road.
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Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Missouri State +7.5. I don’t trust their road form, so this isn’t a “love the dog” type play, but I do like the number in a game projected to be slower. Middle Tennessee can absolutely win, but covering 7.5 often requires either consistent three-point separation or forcing turnovers into easy points. Missouri State’s best trait, getting to the line, is the kind of thing that keeps them hanging around even when the offense isn’t pretty.
For the total, I lean Under 139.5. Middle Tennessee’s preferred script is slow, and their last game being 59-58 fits that identity. Missouri State can score, but if the Bears don’t get transition chances and both teams are living in the half court, the Under is usually the cleaner side. The risk is free throws. If Missouri State is getting to the line constantly, unders can get chipped away without the pace changing much.
Best Bet: Missouri State +7.5 (-112).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
Conference games like this are where the edges come from understanding how teams want to play, not just who has the better record. Pace, turnovers, and free-throw rate are often more predictive than raw points per game, especially when the market is hanging a spread near two possessions.
If you’re building a slate, today’s college basketball picks are a good way to compare sides and totals across the board and see where the strongest positions are lining up.
