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Match Facts
Dallas looks to extend its win streak to four games as it hosts Ottawa at American Airlines Center. The Stars come in at 16-5-4, sitting second in the Central Division and riding a dominant special teams stretch that has turned close games in their favor. Their latest result, a 4-3 comeback win over the Utah Mammoth, showcased both their lethal power play and the stability in net from Jake Oettinger. That win was also their third in four days during a demanding Edmonton–Seattle–Dallas travel swing, underlining the value of depth and structure.
Ottawa arrives for the sixth stop on a seven-game road trip at 12-8-4, with three wins already collected on the swing, including victories in Anaheim and Vegas. However, a 4-3 loss in St. Louis after surrendering three third-period goals underscored lingering inconsistency in closing games. The return of captain Brady Tkachuk from a long injury absence is a major boost, and the Senators will lean on him, hot-hand Fabian Zetterlund and steady goaltending from Linus Ullmark to hang with one of the West’s most complete teams. Team snapshots, trends and matchup data can be found on the NHL teams page.
Line and Odds
Moneyline: Stars -141, Senators +118
Puckline and total: to be monitored closer to puck drop
For updated prices, puckline options and totals, check the live NHL scores and odds.
Movement Matchup
Dallas has been rolling through opponents with a combination of elite special teams and reliable goaltending. Against Utah, the Stars overcame an early 2-0 deficit by leaning heavily on their power play, going 2-for-5 and getting the eventual game-winner from Wyatt Johnston late in the second period. Johnston now leads the league in power-play goals, and Dallas sits first in both power-play goals scored (27) and conversion rate (31.8 percent). With that man-advantage forming the backbone of their offensive identity, any opponent with penalty-kill issues is immediately under pressure, and Ottawa’s second-worst PK in the league is a clear red flag.
Ottawa’s road trip has shown both resilience and fragility. Wins in Anaheim and Vegas highlighted their ability to generate offense and play physically, but the collapse in St. Louis—three goals allowed in the third period—showed how quickly their structure can unravel late in games. The return of Tkachuk adds emotional charge and net-front presence, and Zetterlund’s recent scoring burst has helped diversify their attack. Still, facing a rested, disciplined Stars club that punishes careless penalties is a different level of test. If the Senators cannot stay out of the box and protect the middle of the ice, the matchup tilts hard toward Dallas.
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Breakdown Injury Reports
Ottawa Senators Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot (D) | Out | Upper body |
| Ridly Greig (C) | Questionable | Undisclosed |
Dallas Stars Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene (C) | Out | Undisclosed |
| Adam Erne (LW) | Out | Lower body |
| Thomas Harley (D) | Out | Lower body |
| Luke Krys (D) | Out | Achilles |
| Nils Lundkvist (D) | Out | Lower body |
| Ilya Lyubushkin (D) | Questionable | Undisclosed |
| Kyle McDonald (RW) | Out | Knee |
| Chase Wheatcroft (C) | Out | Wrist |
Ottawa Senators Recent Performance
Ottawa’s 12-8-4 mark reflects a team capable of winning close, rugged games but still searching for complete 60-minute efforts. The 4-3 loss in St. Louis fits a familiar pattern: solid stretches of play undone by lapses in execution and defensive detail late. Even so, there are positives. The Senators carry an effective power play that has produced 17 goals and ranks near the top of the league, driven by skill pieces like Tim Stützle and Drake Batherson. Stützle’s blend of scoring and playmaking, along with Batherson’s finishing touch, keeps Ottawa dangerous any time they gain the zone with control.
The return of Brady Tkachuk changes their profile significantly. Coming off thumb surgery and a 20-game absence, he recorded an assist in his first game back and immediately re-established himself as a net-front threat. Zetterlund’s three goals over his last four games further deepen the scoring mix and hint at a looming breakout if his confidence continues to grow. In goal, Linus Ullmark has quietly stabilized the back end, winning his last three starts and backstopping each of Ottawa’s wins on this trip. If he sees the puck cleanly and the Senators can avoid extended time shorthanded, they have the pieces to challenge Dallas.
Dallas Stars Recent Performance
Dallas continues to look like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender thanks to a layered roster that can beat opponents in multiple ways. The recent 4-3 win over Utah highlighted their resilience and depth: despite travel fatigue and an early hole, the Stars leaned on structure, special teams and goaltending to claw back. Johnston’s emergence as the league’s most dangerous power-play scorer has elevated an already talented top unit featuring shooters and distributors across all five spots. With the man-advantage clicking above 30 percent, Dallas often needs only a few opportunities to swing games.
In net, Jake Oettinger remains the anchor. He has won six of his last seven and sits tied for second in the league in victories, while backup Casey DeSmith has provided one of the league’s best safety nets with a .919 save percentage and 2.20 goals-against average among goalies with at least six games. That tandem gives Dallas the luxury of riding the hot hand without overworking either goaltender. Even with multiple injuries on the blue line, the Stars have kept their defensive structure intact and rely on quick breakouts to transition into offense. Their ability to manage schedule fatigue, control special teams and close out tight games has them comfortably near the top of the Western Conference.
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Betting Insights and Trends
This matchup is a classic strength-on-weakness scenario: Dallas’ league-best power play against Ottawa’s near-bottom penalty kill. If the Senators cannot significantly cut down on penalties, the Stars’ man-advantage looks poised to dictate the game. Dallas has also been one of the hottest teams in the league, going 8-2 over its last 10 and a perfect 3-0 in its last three, while Ottawa’s recent road push is promising but not yet supported by consistent defensive results. The Senators have been profitable on the puckline as underdogs, showing they can keep games close, but their late-game issues and vulnerable PK are concerning in this specific matchup.
The projected 4-3 Stars edge aligns with what both teams have shown: capable offenses, competent goaltending and enough defensive gaps to allow scoring on both sides. Dallas’ depth and goaltending advantage, combined with their special teams edge, make them the justified favorite at home. Bettors weighing side, total and derivative markets can find additional angles and supporting data in the NHL expert betting guide and the daily NHL picks.
Best Bets and Prediction
Projected Score: Stars 4, Senators 3
Best Bet: Stars moneyline (-141)
Total Lean: Over 6.0
Handicapper Section
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