Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions May 9th 2025

The Maple Leafs and Panthers are set to face off at 7:00 ET on TNT. The Panthers will host the game at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL. This Atlantic division matchup has an over/under of 6 goals, and the Panthers are favored by -1.5 at home vs. the Maple Leafs.

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Toronto vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Maple Leafs at Panthers
• Where: Amerant Bank Arena Sunrise
• Date: Friday, May 9th
• Betting Odds FLA -228 | TOR +191 O/U 6

The Maple Leafs Can Win If…

Toronto’s record fell to 52-26-4 after a 2-1 overtime loss to the Wild. The Maple Leafs were underdogs on the puck line and the total was set at 6 goals, but the teams combined for only 3.

After the Wild scored first, William Nylander tied it with a goal at 19:08 in the first period. The game remained tied until Minnesota scored the winning goal at 2:14 in overtime.

William Nylander netted his 9th goal of the season on a power play, scoring at 19:08 in the first period to tie the game 1-1. Auston Matthews earned his 6th assist, while Mitchell Marner picked up his 12th assist on the play.

Despite taking 28 shots on goal, the Maple Leafs were held to just one goal. They had 10 giveaways in the game.

Defensively, the Maple Leafs will look to bounce back after giving up the game-winning goal 2:14 into overtime. They also allowed the first goal of the game to Minnesota, 10:19 into the first period. Anthony Stolarz made 31 saves, posting a 93.9% save percentage, and the defense added 2 takeaways and 30 hits.

• Toronto will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 3-0. Their over-under record in these games was 3-0.
• Across Toronto’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. In these contests, the team went just 7-3 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

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The Panthers Can Win If…

With a 4-2 win over the Stars, the Panthers improved to 47-31-4 this season. Florida covered the puck line as -1.5 goal favorites, and the total of 6 goals fell short of the 6.5 goal line.

All four of Florida’s goals came from different players, and they held the Stars scoreless in the third period. The Panthers took an early lead with a goal at 5:15 in the first period.

Carolina’s offense produced 4 goals on 25 shots in their 4-2 win over Dallas. A.J. Greer found the net for the first time this season, while Sam Reinhart added his 10th goal on an empty net. The Panthers also got goals from Evan Rodrigues, who now has 3 on the year, and Matthew Tkachuk, who scored his 3rd, with Tkachuk’s goal coming on a power play.

Carolina had 16 giveaways but managed to score twice in the 3rd period, including Greer’s goal at 17:28 and Reinhart’s empty-netter with 1:00 left. The Panthers’ offense was balanced, with 4 different players finding the net and totaling 6 assists.

Florida’s defense gave up two goals to Dallas in the previous game, both coming in the second period. However, they held the Stars scoreless in the first and third periods. Spencer Knight made 23 saves with a 92% save percentage, and the Panthers’ defense added 8 takeaways and 22 hits.

• The Panthers have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. The team’s record vs the puck line was just 1-2, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-0.
• Florida has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 4-6 vs. the puck line along with an over-under mark of 8-2.

The Lean

When it comes to a straight moneyline bet, look no further than the Panthers. Nevertheless, given the payout of -228, you could also think about incorporating this bet into a parlay.

For my recommended choice in the puck line, I’m leaning towards the Maple Leafs to cover. Even if the Panthers secure a straight-up win, this game is expected to be tightly contested, and the Maple Leafs should cover the puck line.

If you’re looking at the over/under line set at 6 goals, our prediction is that this game will exceed that mark, and we strongly advise placing a bet on the over.

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Leafs Embrace the Pressure as Game 3 vs. Panthers Looms

The Toronto Maple Leafs are out to rewrite decades of playoff frustration, and so far, they’re off to a stunning start. With a 2-0 lead over the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers in their second-round series, the Leafs are proving they’re not the same team that’s faltered in postseasons past. Now, as the series shifts to Florida for Game 3 on Friday, the question is whether they can keep their foot on the gas.

Toronto Finding Different Ways to Win

Toronto has claimed the first two games in dramatically different fashion. In Game 1, they led from start to finish, fending off a late Florida push to secure a 5-4 win. In Game 2, they rallied from behind, with Mitch Marner delivering the game-winner in the third period to seal a 4-3 victory.

Key to the Leafs’ early success has been winger William Nylander, who has erupted for three goals and an assist in the series. Dating back to the first round, Nylander has now totaled six goals and seven assists in eight playoff games—picking up the slack for underperforming stars Auston Matthews and John Tavares, who have combined for just one point through two games.

Joseph Woll Rising in the Spotlight

With Anthony Stolarz out after a scary Game 1 injury, goaltender Joseph Woll has stepped into the spotlight and delivered. While his playoff win streak now stretches back to last season, Woll hadn’t played since April 17. Still, his readiness has been a key asset for the Leafs.

“It’s something I had to focus on, coming up with a plan to stay ready.”
— Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs Goalie

The Leafs’ goaltending duo split time in the regular season, and Woll’s steady presence is proving to be a difference-maker as Toronto chases its first Stanley Cup since 1967.

Panthers’ Stars Search for Spark

Florida has been far from sharp in this series. Sergei Bobrovsky, who dominated the first round against Tampa Bay, has allowed nine goals across two games—including eight at even strength. Offensively, it’s been quiet from the top lines. Sam Reinhart, the team’s leading scorer in the regular season, has yet to register a point. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov have combined for just two points.

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While the Panthers’ third line has carried the offensive load, the team knows defensive discipline is where it needs to improve most.

“It doesn’t take much for them to score. We have to make sure we are pretty much perfect on our defensive coverage.”
— Brad Marchand, Panthers Forward

As the series heads to Florida, the Panthers will need more from their stars—and fewer mistakes in transition—if they hope to close the gap.