New Jersey Devils vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions December 11th 2025

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Match Facts

ItemDetail
GameTampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils
VenuePrudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Schedule spotEach team coming off a decisive win that snapped a multi-game losing streak
Recent result – Devils4-3 home win vs. Senators, ending a five-game skid
Recent result – Lightning6-1 road win at Canadiens, ending a four-game skid
Season seriesSplit 1-1: Devils 5-3 win on Oct. 11; Lightning 5-1 win on Nov. 18
Home/road formDevils 9-4-1 at home; Lightning 9-4-2 on the road

Bettors tracking the full Thursday slate can see how this matchup is priced relative to the rest of the board on the NHL scores and prices screen under the main NHL scores and odds hub, and where each club fits in the bigger league picture on the NHL teams page.

Line and Odds

  • Moneyline: Devils projected as a slight home favorite with Tampa Bay a live road underdog
  • Puck line: Devils -1.5 at plus money; Lightning +1.5 providing goal protection in what profiles as a one-goal game
  • Total: 6.5 goals, with market respect for both offensive ceilings despite recent slumps

Movement Matchup

This number is shaped more by context and matchup than by either team’s last scoreline. New Jersey’s 4-3 win over Ottawa finally halted a five-game skid, but the way they did it matters more than the simple result. The Glass–Gritsyuk–Brown line carried play by keeping it simple: hard forecheck, pucks deep, quick support, and point shots with traffic. That is exactly what Cody Glass referenced when he talked about “simplifying” during a losing streak. For the Devils, it is a welcome counterbalance to their usual rush-heavy, high-skill game.

Tampa Bay’s reset in Montreal was similar in spirit but different in execution. Darren Raddysh’s two-goal night and Jonas Johansson’s third straight strong outing were emblematic of a team that needed contributions from beyond its headline stars. After back-to-back 2-0 shutouts, the Lightning finally broke out with six goals and a dominant road effort, reaffirming why they still show up positively in broader futures breakdowns like the league-wide Stanley Cup odds discussion.

The key tension here is sustainability. New Jersey’s fix is about structure: if they keep that simplified, north-south game layered on top of their existing skill, their underlying metrics suggest more wins are coming. Tampa Bay’s problem is health: losing Victor Hedman again after only a brief return, on top of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s absence, forces them to lean heavily on depth pieces and Johansson’s run of form. That is the kind of situation handicappers track closely in more detailed divisional looks, such as Metropolitan Division odds for the Devils and Atlantic Division odds for the Lightning.

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Breakdown Injury Reports

New Jersey Devils injury report

PlayerStatusNote
Top forward coreExpected to playGlass, Gritsyuk and Brown all active and productive in the Ottawa win
Defensive groupNo new issues reportedRegular blue-line rotation expected based on the information provided
GoaltendingProjected starterStarter not specified in the report; expect usual tandem usage with confirmation closer to puck drop

Tampa Bay Lightning injury report

PlayerStatusNote
Victor Hedman (D)Questionable / day-to-dayLeft the Montreal game after the first period with an undisclosed issue; undergoing further evaluation
Andrei Vasilevskiy (G)OutStarter still sidelined; no timeline given in the report
Jonas Johansson (G)ActiveFour straight starts; has stopped 66 of his last 69 shots over three games
Depth skatersExpected to playNo additional injuries noted in the supplied information

The Hedman situation is the swing piece. If he cannot go, Tampa’s blue line loses its anchor, and the market will adjust toward New Jersey, something that is often unpacked in match-specific writeups inside the NHL expert betting guide.

New Jersey Devils Recent Performance

On paper, a five-game losing streak looks ugly; on the ice, New Jersey’s issues have been more about execution and game management than complete structural collapse. The Ottawa win showed what a reset can look like. The Glass–Gritsyuk–Brown line drove a simple, repeatable game: win races, get pucks low, feed the points, create chaos. Eight combined points for that unit is proof of concept.

Brown and Gritsyuk already burned Tampa Bay earlier in the season, combining for four points in the Devils’ 5-3 win, which matters when projecting how New Jersey’s depth can match up against a Lightning team potentially missing Hedman again. If the Devils can keep the same “clear mind” Glass talked about and avoid the risky east-west plays that have bitten them, their underlying chance generation should translate into more consistent scoring.

From a handicapping angle, that profile is why New Jersey still shows up as a buy-low candidate in more forward-looking content, including conference-level futures like Eastern Conference odds.

Tampa Bay Lightning Recent Performance

Tampa Bay’s recent run has been a roller coaster. Back-to-back 2-0 shutout losses underscored how fragile the offense can look when the power play goes quiet and the middle six fails to finish. The 6-1 response in Montreal was exactly the kind of “statement” win they needed on a road trip, with Raddysh stepping up offensively and Johansson quietly putting together a three-game stretch where he has looked like a legitimate short-term answer in net.

The problem is that the Lightning’s margin for error is shrinking. Without Vasilevskiy, they were already leaning on Johansson to outperform expectations. If Hedman is limited or out, the defensive structure takes another hit. Tampa Bay still have the top-end talent to trade chances and win a high-event game, which is why they remain a threat in longer-range Atlantic-focused outlooks such as NHL Atlantic Division odds, but in isolated road spots like this, you are asking depth players and a hot goalie to shoulder a lot of weight.

This matchup sets up as a classic “who do you trust more to sustain the reset” spot. The Devils finally snapped their losing streak by simplifying and leaning on a depth line that played the right way. The Lightning snapped theirs by erupting offensively and riding another strong Johansson outing, but they may have lost their most important skater in the process if Hedman cannot go.

New Jersey’s 9-4-1 home record is not an accident. When they roll all four lines and stay on top of the puck, their pace and skill can overwhelm opponents, particularly teams that are in the middle of a long road swing. Tampa Bay’s 9-4-2 road mark is equally impressive, but the underlying story is different this season: they are grinding out results through experience and opportunism more than overwhelming shot share, which is why their volatility shows up clearly when you zoom out to full-season metrics on the main NHL teams page.

The total at 6.5 reflects two offenses that, when right, can put up crooked numbers. New Jersey’s power play and rush game can turn any night into a track meet, and Tampa Bay still have enough firepower to hold up their end. The key is whether both coaches double down on the simpler, defense-first approach that finally snapped their skids or revert to higher-risk hockey once the game opens up.

Best Bets and Prediction

Projected score: Devils 4, Lightning 3

The most likely script has New Jersey leveraging home ice, last change and their renewed commitment to a straightforward, forecheck-driven game to tilt the ice over 60 minutes. If the Devils can replicate the Glass–Gritsyuk–Brown line’s template and get even an average performance from their goaltending, they have a slight edge against a Lightning team that is still patching holes on the back end and leaning heavily on Johansson’s current form.

Tampa Bay remain absolutely capable of stealing this with their power play and transition game, especially if New Jersey fall back into old habits and feed turnovers into counterattacks. But with Hedman’s status in doubt and Vasilevskiy still out, you are asking a shorthanded blue line to withstand a Devils offense that finally looks like it has remembered how to grind out goals rather than wait for highlight-reel plays.

The cleaner side is Devils on the moneyline. The projected score leans to the over 6.5, but the strongest edge sits with the home team in a fast, high-event environment where depth, matchup control and renewed structure should matter.

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Handicapper section

For handicappers, this is a textbook example of two different kinds of bounce-back spots. New Jersey’s win looks more sustainable: it came from structural adjustments, simplified execution and depth stepping up in exactly the way you want to see after a losing streak. That is the type of change that tends to hold up over multiple games and is the reason the Devils continue to be a popular candidate in more nuanced strategy pieces like the NHL betting guide and even broader divisional outlooks such as Metropolitan Division odds breakdowns.

Tampa Bay’s response in Montreal was impressive, but it is also fragile. When a team’s bounce-back is built on a blowout scoreline, a depth defenseman’s offensive spike and a goaltender on a heater, you need to treat it with more skepticism, especially when the injury report is trending in the wrong direction. The Lightning are still a team you want in your long-term portfolio in the right futures markets, including some tiers of Stanley Cup odds, but in single-game handicapping, you need to be more selective about when you pay a premium for their name recognition.

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