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Game Preview New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning
The New York Islanders head south to face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Saturday, December 13, 2025, in a battle between two Eastern Conference squads with very different trajectories. The Islanders continue to ride defensive structure and goaltending to stay competitive in the Metropolitan Division, while Tampa Bay looks to shake off a streaky first half of the season and climb in the Atlantic Division standings.
New York enters the matchup with a 14-12-3 record and sits just outside the top three in the Metro. They’ve relied on elite goaltending and tight checking but still struggle to generate consistent offensive production. Tampa Bay is 16-13-2 and has shown flashes of their old dominance, though injuries and defensive lapses have held them back from stringing together sustained success.
This game presents strong betting potential across the moneyline, total, and prop markets. It also features several matchup-specific angles that could determine the side and total outcomes. For live line movement and betting splits, visit the NHL scores and odds page.
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New York Islanders Outlook
The Islanders are right where most expected—hovering around .500 but staying competitive through system discipline. Their 14-12-3 record includes five wins in their last eight games, with Ilya Sorokin stealing several of those results with game-saving performances. Sorokin currently owns a .922 save percentage and a 2.38 goals-against average, making him one of the most valuable goaltenders in the East.
Offensively, the Islanders continue to lean on Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, who have combined for 55 points through 29 games. However, New York ranks just 26th in goals per game and struggles when trailing early. Their power play has been more effective in recent weeks, improving to 20.1 percent, but their penalty kill has regressed to 79.4 percent.
Defensively, New York does an excellent job limiting high-danger chances. They block shots at the fourth-highest rate in the league and force opponents into low-percentage perimeter play. On the road, the Islanders are 6-6-2 and have gone under the total in seven of those games. Their ability to slow down pace and protect leads makes them an underdog threat in low-scoring contests.
To track the Islanders’ standing within their division, check the Metropolitan Division NHL preview.
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Lightning are 16-13-2 and remain one of the more difficult teams to analyze from a betting perspective. On some nights, they look like a Cup contender. On others, defensive lapses and inconsistent goaltending expose their aging core. Tampa Bay has dropped three of their last five but remains dangerous on home ice, where they are 9-4-1 this season.
Nikita Kucherov leads the NHL in scoring and continues to be a dominant force at even strength and on the power play. Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos provide secondary scoring, while Mikhail Sergachev anchors the blue line when healthy. The Lightning average 3.4 goals per game and convert 27.9 percent of their power play opportunities, which ranks fourth in the league.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has struggled with zone coverage and penalty killing. Their PK unit ranks just 78.3 percent and has allowed a power play goal in five of the last six games. Goaltending has also taken a step back. Andrei Vasilevskiy has returned to action but holds a .904 save percentage through ten starts and hasn’t looked like his Vezina-level self yet.
Tampa Bay is 3-6 against the spread in its last nine games and has been less profitable as a favorite than in recent seasons. For a deeper dive into their divisional odds, visit the Atlantic Division NHL betting forecast.
Key Matchup
The Islanders’ defense-first system against Tampa Bay’s elite first line will define the outcome. If New York can contain Kucherov and limit Tampa’s power play time, the game shifts in their favor. The Islanders are one of the league’s best shot-suppression teams, especially with Scott Mayfield and Ryan Pulock healthy on the blue line.
Special teams are where Tampa has a clear edge. Their power play movement and net-front presence create high-danger scoring chances, while New York struggles when forced into rotation on the penalty kill. If Tampa gets more than three power play opportunities, they’re likely to convert.
The faceoff battle also leans slightly toward New York, who ranks sixth in overall win percentage. That could matter in tight second-period moments and on offensive zone draws. For more matchup-specific breakdowns, visit the NHL expert betting guide.
Betting Trends
New York is 5-3 in its last eight games overall and 7-2 to the under in its last nine on the road. The Islanders are 4-1 in their last five games when allowing two or fewer goals and have gone 6-4 against the puck line in their last ten games as underdogs.
Tampa Bay is 6-4 in its last ten overall and 4-1 in its last five games against teams with a losing road record. However, they are just 3-6 against the puck line in that same span and have seen the total go over in four of their last six games at home.
Head-to-head, the Islanders have won three of the last five meetings, but Tampa Bay has won two straight, both by multiple goals. The over has hit in four of the last six meetings between these clubs. For more real-time trends, go to the NHL picks and predictions section.
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Prediction
This game sets up as a stylistic contrast—New York’s structure and goaltending versus Tampa Bay’s pace and firepower. If Sorokin plays at his usual level, the Islanders can keep this close and force Tampa to win low-scoring. But if the Lightning break through on the power play, New York’s offense may not be able to keep pace.
Expect the Islanders to slow the game early, but Tampa Bay’s depth and home ice advantage give them the edge if they can generate momentum off special teams.
Final score prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New York Islanders 2
Best bet: Islanders +1.5 puck line
Total lean: Under 6.0 goals if Sorokin starts
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