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New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Preview
The New York Islanders begin their 2025-26 campaign Thursday night with a divisional showdown against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, makes his highly anticipated debut for New York — and it comes against Sidney Crosby and the Penguins, who opened the season with an impressive 3-0 shutout win over the Rangers.
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Oddsmakers have the Islanders as slight -128 favorites, with the Penguins priced at +108 on the moneyline. The total is listed at 6.0 goals, with the over at +100 and the under at -122.
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Line Movement and Odds
This matchup opened near pick’em, but early money has nudged the Islanders into slight favorite territory at -128. Bettors appear to respect Patrick Roy’s debut behind the bench and Ilya Sorokin’s presence in net. However, the Penguins’ strong start — particularly goalie Arturs Silovs’ 25-save shutout on Tuesday — has drawn 58% of moneyline handle toward the home underdog.
The total opened at 5.5 but moved up to 6.0 as both teams boast offensive upside with proven scorers like Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, and Rickard Rakell on the ice.
“It’s just hockey, right? You don’t want to overthink who’s on the ice,” said Islanders rookie Matthew Schaefer. “I’m just going to put my head down, work hard, and play my game.”
Matchup Breakdown
New York Islanders Outlook
Patrick Roy’s Islanders are eager to reset after a disappointing 35-35-12 campaign that left them sixth in the Metropolitan Division. The offense must improve — New York ranked 27th in goals per game (2.71) and 31st on the power play (12.6%). With Mathew Barzal healthy and Bo Horvat centering the top line, expect an uptick in creativity and pace. Captain Anders Lee (29 goals last year) remains a key finisher, while Schaefer’s addition injects youthful energy to the blue line. Ilya Sorokin, who notched 30 wins and a .913 save percentage last season, gives the Isles a stability edge in goal.
Pittsburgh Penguins Outlook
The Penguins kicked off the Dan Muse era in style with a 3-0 win over the Rangers. New acquisition Arturs Silovs turned heads with a 25-save shutout, while Justin Brazeau scored twice. Despite Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell being held off the scoresheet, Pittsburgh’s balance and defensive detail stood out — they posted 31 shots, 22 hits, and 20 blocks. Muse’s system emphasizes puck support and layered coverage, a shift from past years. With Evgeni Malkin still orchestrating the second line and the Penguins riding early momentum, they’ll be a live underdog on home ice.
Injuries and Conditions
| New York Islanders | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|
| D Matthew Schaefer – Making NHL debut | G Tristan Jarry – Day-to-day (illness) |
| D Adam Pelech – Questionable (upper body) | D Marcus Pettersson – Probable (maintenance) |
| F Oliver Wahlstrom – Probable (returning from injury) | F Bryan Rust – Out (lower body) |
| G Ilya Sorokin – Starting New York Islanders Injury Report | G Arturs Silovs – Starting Pittsburgh Penguins Injury Report |
Weather: Indoors at PPG Paints Arena — no weather impact expected.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Islanders’ defensive structure and Sorokin’s elite play in net make them a tough opening-night opponent. Still, Pittsburgh’s early-season rhythm and home advantage give them real upset potential. Expect a fast-paced divisional battle, with both sides capable of capitalizing on special teams. The Isles may edge it late — but this one should feature goals on both ends.
Pick: Islanders Moneyline (-128)
Projected Final Score: Islanders 4, Penguins 3
Lean: Over 6.0 (+100)
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| Category | Detail |
|---|---|
| Best Bet | Islanders ML (-128) |
| Confidence Rating | ★★★★☆ |
| Projected Score | Islanders 4, Penguins 3 |
| Total Lean | Over 6.0 (+100) |
| Market Split | 42% bets Islanders, 58% money Penguins |
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