hockey | nhl

Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Pick & Prediction SEP 26TH 2020

FinishedTV: TVA | Sportsnet | CBC | NBCRogers Place Edmonton

5o -127
-1.5 +151
1 2 3 Over
1 0 1 1
0 1 1 0

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One more victory is all that separates the Tampa Bay Lightning from the Stanley Cup.

With a 3-1 lead over the Dallas Stars in the final series, the Lightning have their first chance to clinch the second Cup in franchise history when the puck drops for Game 5 Saturday night in Edmonton.

Since losing the series opener, Tampa Bay has won three straight, with the latest a 5-4 overtime win Friday night, and is rolling.

"We've got a job to do here. It's still not finished," said defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who netted the winning goal in Friday's victory to give the Lightning a stranglehold on the best-of-seven affair.

History is on the Lightning's side in a big way. Teams that have won Game 4 to take a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven Cup finals since the NHL went to that format in 1939 are 27-0 at closing out the series.

Key to finishing off the Stars, though, will be keeping those emotions in check for puck drop.

"They came here to do something," Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. "They're on their way, but we've said all along, we haven't won anything yet. We still have to win one more, and we're not taking anything for granted."

It's a common adage about the hardest win to collect being the fourth, but the Lightning certainly are carrying all the momentum, and are beating the Stars any way necessary. They won Game 2 by scoring three times in the first period and cruising to a 3-2 win. They took Game 3 handily in a 5-2 final and then erased a pair of deficits -- including a two-goal first-period hole -- in the most recent victory.

The Stars must find an answer against the high-octane Lightning.

"I have full faith in that team that we will fight back. We will bounce back," Dallas coach Rick Bowness vowed.

The alternative is to see an outstanding run come to a crashing halt, so expect the Stars to give their best one sleep removed from a crushing loss.

"(We must) move on from this pretty quickly, get ready to play a game with our season on the line," forward Tyler Seguin said in the aftermath of Friday's loss. "I'm excited."

Seguin's performance is one of the few elements of Friday's game that can be a positive turn from the Dallas perspective. Seguin unquestionably had his best game of the series, and that's not just because he collected a pair of assists by driving the play. However, it's worth noting the team's highest paid player hasn't scored in 13 consecutive games.

But the Dallas struggles don't end there. In the special teams battle, the Stars are a miserable 1-for-14 on the power play in the finals, and that futility cost them Friday when they failed to convert on a man-advantage early in the overtime. By comparison, the Lightning have a 6-for-15 mark on the power play in the series, with Shattenkirk's game winner among those markers.

Defensively, the Stars are struggling, too. The team that allowed only eight goals in a five-game series win over the Vegas Golden Knights has surrendered 13 goals in the last three games.

"We've got more," Seguin said. "I believe in this team. We've got another level."

They'll need to find it right away, or the Lightning will be hoisting the Cup and the crazy 2019-20 season will finally come to a conclusion.

--Field Level Media

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Dallas Stars

Tampa Bay Lightning

alignments not yet available

Dallas Stars

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Match Start
  • Period 1
  • MIN 4
    • penalty
    • penalty: Tyler Seguin
  • MIN 17
    • GOAL
    • scorer: Corey Perry
    • assist: Tyler Seguin
    • assist: Jamie Oleksiak
  • Period 2
  • MIN 4
    • GOAL
    • scorer: Ondrej Palat
    • assist: Nikita Kucherov
    • assist: Brayden Point
  • MIN 12
    • penalty
    • penalty: Carter Verhaeghe
  • Period 3
  • MIN 3
    • GOAL
    • scorer: Mikhail Sergachev
    • assist: Brayden Point
  • MIN 11
    • penalty
    • penalty: Erik Cernak
  • MIN 13
    • GOAL
    • scorer: Joe Pavelski
    • assist: Miro Heiskanen
    • assist: Tyler Seguin
  • Period 5
  • MIN 9
    • GOAL
    • scorer: Corey Perry
    • assist: John Klingberg
    • assist: Tyler Seguin
  • Match End


Last 10

W 43% L 57%
3 4
  • @Tampa Bay D 0 - 0
  • @Florida D 0 - 0
  • @Florida D 0 - 0
  • Tampa Bay L 2 - 0
  • @Tampa Bay W 3 - 2
  • Tampa Bay L 5 - 4
  • Tampa Bay L 5 - 2
  • @Tampa Bay L 2 - 3
  • @Tampa Bay W 4 - 1
  • @Vegas W 3 - 2
W 78% L 22%
7 2
  • Dallas D 0 - 0
  • Chicago W 2 - 5
  • Chicago W 1 - 5
  • @Dallas W 2 - 0
  • Dallas L 3 - 2
  • @Dallas W 5 - 4
  • @Dallas W 5 - 2
  • Dallas W 2 - 3
  • Dallas L 4 - 1
  • @NY Islanders W 2 - 1

Next Games

  • @Tampa Bay(01-17-21) D 0 - 0
  • Nashville(07-30-20) L 2 - 0
  • Nashville(07-30-20) L 2 - 0
  • Dallas(01-17-21) D 0 - 0
  • @Columbus(08-17-20) W 2 - 1
  • @Columbus(08-17-20) W 2 - 1

Last Meetings

  • Stars @ Lightning 0-0
  • Lightning @ Stars 2-0
  • Stars @ Lightning 3-2
  • Lightning @ Stars 5-4
  • Lightning @ Stars 5-2
  • Stars @ Lightning 2-3
  • Stars @ Lightning 4-1
  • Lightning @ Stars 2-3
  • Stars @ Lightning 4-3
  • Stars @ Lightning 0-6

Last Injuries

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Curtis McElhinney

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    McElhinney is going through the league's COVID-19 protocols, and will be out for an unknown length of time.

  • Marian Gaborik

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Gaborik has been posted to the injured reserve list due to a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Anders Nilsson

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Nilsson has been placed on the injured reserve list with a concussion, and he is without a definitive timetable for recovery.

  • Nikita Kucherov

    out for season | I-R

    Kucherov will miss the entire regular season due to hip surgery and has been shifted to the injured reserve list. It is undetermined if he will return during the playoffs, should his team make the postseason.

Dallas Stars

  • Mark Pysyk

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Pysyk has been shifted to the injured reserve list due to the COVID-19 protocol, and it is unknown how long he will be debilitated.

  • Esa Lindell

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Lindell is on the injured reserve list due to the COVID-19 protocol, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Julius Honka

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Honka is on the injured reserve list as he goes through the virus protocol, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jamie Oleksiak

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Oleksiak has been shuttled to the injured reserve list as he is going through the virus protocol, and a timetable for recovery has yet to be established.

  • Anton Khudobin

    Ques Fri | questionable

    Khudobin is tending to an immigration issue, and it is unclear if he will be available for the season opener against the Predators.

  • Miro Heiskanen

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Heiskanen is going through the virus protocol and been posted to the injured reserve list, and he is without a definitive timetable for recovery.

  • Justin Dowling

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Dowling has been designated for the injured reserve list due to the league's virus protocol, and it is unclear how long he will be idle.

  • Radek Faksa

    Out indefinitely | I-R

    Faksa is enrolled in the virus protocol and has landed on the injured reserve list. It remains to be seen when he will return.

Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Corey Perry's second goal of the night was the winner to give the Dallas Stars a 3-2 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night in Edmonton, keeping their Stanley Cup hopes alive.

Perry grabbed a loose puck during a scramble, held off the defenders while he waited to get the right angle and then slipped the puck home 9:23 into double overtime to net his second goal of the night for the Stars, who trail the best-of-seven series 3-2.

Game 6 is Monday night.

Tyler Seguin netted three assists and Anton Khudobin made 39 saves for Dallas, which completed yet another comeback.

Perry gave the desperate Stars first blood late in the opening period. While Tampa Bay's Mikhail Sergachev was struggling -- appearing winded after he tried to throw a check -- Perry grabbed a loose puck in the slot and his shot banked off the post and into the net with 2:08 remaining in the period.

The Lightning responded with a much better second period and were rewarded when Ondrej Palat tied the clash. Palat took a pass as he headed down the wing, cut sharply to the net after gaining a step on the defender and then moved the puck from his backhand to forehand before tucking home a deke at 4:37 of the period.

The roller coaster ride befitting a final series continued in the third period.

Sergachev put the Lightning ahead early in the frame when he unloaded a rocket of a point shot at 3:38 of the period, however Joe Pavelski replied for the Stars with 6:45 remaining in regulation by being on the spot for a loose puck that he batted home. Pavelski's goal is officially the 61st playoff marker of his career, the most by any U.S.-born player in NHL history.

Andrei Vasilevskiy made 30 saves for the Lightning.

--Field Level Media