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Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Predictions – Sunday December 28, 2025
The Montreal Canadiens come out of the holiday break Sunday night to face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, with puck drop set for 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Montreal has played its way into the top of the Atlantic mix, and this road spot matters because it’s part of a long trip where the Habs are trying to prove they can bank points away from home.
Tampa Bay is in the same points neighborhood, but the setup is different. The Lightning are on the second half of a back to back after an extremely physical, penalty-heavy win Saturday. That kind of game can either carry momentum or leave you flat, especially when you turn around and face a Montreal team that wants to play with pace.
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should always monitor updated NHL odds leading into puck drop. Keep checking the latest NHL odds as goalie confirmations can shift both the side and the total.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | +124 | +1.5 (-200) | O 6.5 (+105) |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | -148 | -1.5 (+170) | U 6.5 (-125) |
Montreal Canadiens Betting Form
Montreal has been trending up for a few weeks, and it hasn’t been a “one line carried us” thing. The Canadiens have been earning points in different scripts, and that’s why they’re in this spot in the standings. The trade for Phillip Danault is a pretty direct signal that Montreal wants to tighten its identity down the middle and stop giving away easy looks, especially on special teams where their penalty kill has been a problem.
From a betting angle, Montreal’s offense is good enough to play plus money, but the way they win usually depends on staying out of high-penalty games and limiting the free power-play time for opponents. Their PK has been leaky, and that’s not the kind of weakness you want against Tampa Bay. The good news is Danault should help in defensive-zone starts and matchup shifts, even if the chemistry takes a bit.
If you want a clean snapshot of recent results and lineup production, start with Montreal Canadiens stats and results. Availability matters here, so monitor the Montreal Canadiens injury report before puck drop.
Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Form
Tampa Bay’s form is strong on the surface, and it’s easy to see why the market still prices them as the more trustworthy side at home. Nikita Kucherov can tilt games on his own, and the Lightning’s defensive results have been steadier than Montreal’s over the full sample. Even when Tampa’s power play isn’t converting, they can still manufacture goals through transition and pressure, and their goaltending usually gives them a stable floor.
The concern is context. This is a back to back after a fight-filled rivalry game, and that’s a real factor for legs and discipline. Tampa also has some key injury question marks, and if the lineup is missing important pieces again, it can show up in puck management and penalties. If Brandon Hagel returns, it adds a lot to Tampa’s pace and forecheck, but if he remains out, the Lightning become a bit more top-heavy.
For the home split trends and recent results, check Tampa Bay Lightning schedule and stats. Also keep tabs on the Tampa Bay Lightning injury report before you bet, because Tampa’s special teams and forward depth change quickly with one absence.
Canadiens vs Lightning Matchup Breakdown
This matchup starts with special teams. Montreal’s penalty kill has been a sore spot, and Tampa’s power play is still the kind that can break a game even if it’s been uneven recently. If Montreal takes early penalties, it puts them in a chase script, and Tampa is comfortable playing from in front at home.
At five on five, Montreal’s best path is pace and neutral-zone pressure. The Habs want to force Tampa’s defense to turn, make the Lightning play longer shifts, and keep the puck moving north instead of getting stuck in a half-court game where Tampa’s structure holds. Danault’s addition should help Montreal manage matchups and defensive-zone shifts, but it’s still a new piece being plugged in midstream.
The schedule angle is real too. Tampa is on short rest, Montreal is on a road trip but had the break to reset, and the Lightning’s Saturday game was the kind of emotional one that can leave you a step slow Sunday. That leans me slightly toward Montreal being live early, and it’s part of why I’m interested in the plus-money side.
If you’re deciding between moneyline value and puck line protection in spots like this, the NHL betting guide is a solid framework, especially when goalie confirmation is still hanging out there.
Canadiens vs Lightning Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is Montreal moneyline (+124). Tampa is the more proven team, but the situational edge points toward the underdog. Back to back legs matter, and so does the emotional tax of a penalty-filled rivalry game. If Montreal plays with pace and keeps this mostly five on five, I think the Canadiens can win this outright.
The total is priced like a game that could open up, and I get it. Both teams have enough offense to get you to seven goals, and Montreal’s PK risk is always hanging there. But Tampa’s spot makes me a little cautious about assuming full offensive sharpness, and Montreal’s new middle-six look with Danault should push them toward a more controlled road approach. If anything, I see the total as closer to fair than a strong edge either way, unless goalie news changes the picture.
I’m projecting a 4-3 type game where Montreal’s pace creates enough chances, and Tampa’s back to back shows up late.
Best Bet: Montreal Canadiens moneyline (+124).
NHL Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
NHL betting gets easier when you stop treating every game like a standalone mystery and start comparing opinions, prices, and timing. One of the simplest ways to do that is checking today’s NHL picks so you can see how different handicappers are attacking the slate, especially on nights with goalie uncertainty.
If you’re following experts long-term, transparency is everything. The top sports handicappers page helps you find proven performers, and the handicapper leaderboard makes it easier to track who is actually producing profit over time. If you want more volume than the free board, premium NHL picks can be a cleaner way to scale without forcing thin edges.
For broader daily coverage, the NHL previews hub keeps matchups organized, and the Stanley Cup betting guide is useful if you’re also thinking futures while still playing nightly sides and totals.
