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First place in the MAAC is on the line tonight at Lawler Arena as the Merrimack Warriors (18-9, 14-2 MAAC) host the Siena Saints (18-9, 11-5 MAAC) at 8:00 PM ET on ESPNU. Merrimack enters as a 3.5-point favorite, riding a six-game winning streak that has propelled them to the top of the conference standings. Siena, meanwhile, is looking for revenge after dropping a narrow 63-59 contest to the Warriors back in January. With both teams sporting identical 18-9 overall records, this matchup features the MAAC’s best home team (Merrimack, 10-1 at home) against its best road team (Siena, 10-5 away).
The Warriors have been a force in North Andover, fueled by a defensive unit that ranks 25th nationally in points allowed (66.7 PPG). Siena, however, brings a balanced scoring attack and a significant edge on the glass that could test Merrimack’s interior defense. With a total set at 132.5, bettors should prepare for a high-intensity, physical battle where every possession carries the weight of a potential regular-season title.
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Siena vs Merrimack Odds
Current betting lines favor the home-standing Warriors. To see how the public is moving the needle as tip-off approaches, check the latest MAAC basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Siena | +145 | +3.5 (-110) | O 132.5 (-110) |
| Merrimack | -184 | -3.5 (-112) | U 132.5 (-110) |
Siena Saints Betting Form
Siena arrives in North Andover having won two of their last three, including a gritty 67-63 road victory over Marist. The Saints are led by a dynamic backcourt duo in Justice Shoats (13.6 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Gavin Doty, who has exploded for 17.0 PPG this season. Siena’s ability to shoot 46.6% from the field (102nd nationally) makes them one of the more efficient offenses in the conference. For a deeper look at their ATS performance as a road underdog, visit the Siena Saints stats and results page.
The frontcourt will rely heavily on Antonio Chandler and Francis Folefac to control the boards, where Siena holds a distinct statistical advantage over Merrimack. However, depth remains a concern; the Siena injury report confirms that forward Tasman Goodrick is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, while Tajae Jones is questionable with a back issue. This puts immense pressure on Folefac to stay out of foul trouble against a Merrimack team that excels at drawing contact.
Merrimack Warriors Betting Form
Merrimack is arguably the hottest team in the Northeast, winning 14 of their last 16 conference games. Freshman phenom Kevair Kennedy has been the catalyst, leading the team in scoring (17.7 PPG) and assists (4.1 APG) while providing elite perimeter defense (2.0 SPG). The Warriors’ defensive identity is their hallmark; they allow just 66.7 PPG and rank among the nation’s best in blocks (5.0 per game), anchored by KC Ugwuakazi. You can track their home dominance on the Merrimack Warriors schedule and stats page.
The Warriors’ offense thrives on the perimeter shooting of Ernest Shelton, who knocks down nearly three triples per game. While their overall shooting percentage (42.1%) is lower than Siena’s, they protect the ball exceptionally well, ranking 37th in the country for fewest turnovers. Before backing the favorite, check the Merrimack injury report to ensure Kennedy and Ugwuakazi are fully healthy for this primetime slot.
Siena vs Merrimack Matchup Breakdown
This game is a collision of two distinct styles: Siena’s efficient, rebounding-heavy offense against Merrimack’s high-pressure, turnover-forcing defense. Merrimack struggles significantly on the glass, ranking 363rd in rebounds per game (25.2), which is where Siena (30.5 RPG) can dominate. If Folefac and Chandler can secure second-chance opportunities, it will force Merrimack to abandon their preferred transition game.
Conversely, Merrimack’s 8.1 steals per game could be a nightmare for a Siena team that can occasionally get loose with the ball. The Warriors’ home-court advantage at Lawler Arena is tangible; they have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 home games. For more insights on how these mid-major conference leaders perform under pressure, visit our college basketball betting guide.
Siena vs Merrimack Predictions and Best Bets
While Merrimack is the favorite for a reason, Siena’s 10-5 road record and superior rebounding make them a live underdog. The Saints’ ability to keep the score tight in their previous meeting (a 4-point loss) suggests they have the blueprint to handle the Warriors’ pressure. With the spread at 3.5, I expect a one-possession game that comes down to late-game free throws—an area where Siena’s Justice Shoats excels.
For the total, the Under 132.5 is the lean despite the models projecting higher. Both teams play at a methodical pace and rely on defensive stops to win close conference games. In a high-stakes “first-place” environment, expect both coaches to prioritize ball security and half-court execution.
Best Bet: Siena +3.5 (-110).
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NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
MAAC basketball is notoriously volatile, making expert insights essential for long-term profit. See how our pros are betting tonight’s ESPNU feature by visiting today’s college basketball picks. Our handicapper leaderboard lets you follow specialists who have mastered mid-major trends.
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