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The Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Ottawa Senators on Thursday, March 26 at Canadian Tire Centre, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. Ottawa comes in at 38-24-9 and is holding the second wild-card spot in the East, while Pittsburgh is 35-20-16 and sitting in a playoff position of its own. This is a meaningful game on both sides of the bubble, and it has started to feel a little bigger than a normal late-March regular-season matchup. Coverage is listed for ESPN+, with regional coverage on RDS2, TSN5, and SN-PIT.
Ottawa is the hotter team right now. The Senators have won four straight, six of seven, and are 15-3-2 since January 25, even while dealing with major injuries on the blue line. Pittsburgh is trending the other way after dropping two straight and three of four, and the Penguins have been outscored 11-3 across their last two defeats. The market has noticed too, with Ottawa moving from a smaller favorite into a more solid home chalk role by Thursday morning. (CBS Sports)
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators Odds
These are the current betting lines, and bettors should keep monitoring the latest NHL odds before puck drop because this market has already moved from Ottawa -135 to -155 while the total has climbed from 5.5 to 6.5.
| Team | Moneyline | Puck Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +130 | +1.5 (-205) | O 6.5 (+105) |
| Ottawa Senators | -155 | -1.5 (+170) | U 6.5 (-125) |
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Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Form
Pittsburgh still has enough offensive punch to make this game uncomfortable for Ottawa. Sidney Crosby has a four-game point streak since returning, Egor Chinakhov has scored in three straight, and the Penguins on the season are still putting up 3.39 goals per game with a 24.1 percent power play and an 82.9 percent penalty kill. On paper, that is a profile bettors usually respect, especially against an Ottawa team whose season-long penalty kill has been shaky. If you want a broader snapshot, the Pittsburgh Penguins stats and results page lays out the bigger picture well.
The problem is that Pittsburgh’s defensive form has dipped at the wrong time. The Penguins have allowed 21 goals over their last four games, and the last two losses have come by a combined 11-3 margin. That makes it harder to back the underdog moneyline unless you believe the finishing talent overrides the recent defensive slippage. Availability matters too, because Pittsburgh Penguins injury report news is worth checking close to game time with Evgeni Malkin dealing with an upper-body issue and Anthony Mantha listed day-to-day.
Goaltending is also central here. Arturs Silovs appears to be the likely Penguins starter, though that is still something bettors should confirm during warmups. If he goes, Pittsburgh needs a cleaner defensive game in front of him than it got against Colorado, because Ottawa is not giving opponents many easy looks lately and this is a tougher bounce-back spot than it first appears.
Ottawa Senators Betting Form
Ottawa has been one of the better late-season momentum teams in the conference, and the results are not really fluky. The Senators have won four in a row and are 8-2-0 over their last 10, and they are doing it with structure more than chaos. They only allow 24.0 shots per game, which is one of the more useful numbers in this matchup because Pittsburgh still relies on sustained zone time from its veteran core. Bettors looking for the bigger team profile can check the Ottawa Senators schedule and stats page.
What makes Ottawa interesting is that the Senators are winning through real adversity. Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Nick Jensen, Lassi Thomson, and Dennis Gilbert have all been unavailable, yet Ottawa still beat the Rangers and Red Wings on consecutive nights and held New York to one of the lowest shot totals seen in years. That does not mean the injuries are irrelevant. They matter a lot. It does mean this team is playing with urgency and commitment, which is often worth something in late-March home spots. Keep an eye on the Ottawa Senators injury report right up to puck drop, because the blue-line absences still shape every total and side discussion in this matchup.
Linus Ullmark looks like the likely Ottawa starter, and if that holds, the Senators have the steadier netminding setup coming in. Ottawa’s power play is also good enough at 22.8 percent to attack a Pittsburgh team that has been leaking chances more than usual lately, even if the Sens are not at full strength defensively.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators Matchup Breakdown
This game is a little tricky because both teams bring something legitimate to the table. Pittsburgh has the better season-long special teams profile, with a strong power play and penalty kill. Ottawa has been the better recent team overall, and the Senators are suppressing shots at a level that usually translates well to the moneyline, especially at home. If you handicap NHL sides through game-state control and not only star power, that is the first thing that stands out from a broader NHL betting guide.
The cleanest edge for Pittsburgh is against Ottawa’s depleted defense. Crosby, Karlsson, and Rakell can absolutely exploit a patchwork blue line, and that is why I would not dismiss Penguins team-total looks altogether. Still, Ottawa has responded to those injuries with a surprisingly disciplined team game, and that matters more to me than the injury list by itself. The Senators are not asking their replacement defensemen to do too much. They are simplifying the game, getting saves, and protecting the middle fairly well.
From a market perspective, the move is telling. Ottawa opened around -135 and got bet up into the -155 range, while the total rose from 5.5 to 6.5. That suggests bettors respect the Senators’ current form but also see scoring pathways on both sides, likely because of Ottawa’s injuries and Pittsburgh’s recent defensive wobble. It also makes price sensitivity important. Ottawa was clearly more attractive early than it is after the move, and the over had more value at 5.5 than it does at 6.5. This game even has a bit of broader playoff and futures weight if you are thinking through the bigger Stanley Cup betting guide lens.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators Predictions and Best Bets
My first lean is Ottawa on the moneyline. The Senators are the team playing better hockey right now, they are at home, and they have looked far more connected defensively than Pittsburgh over the last week. I also trust their urgency a bit more in this exact spot. The injuries on the back end are real, but the market has weighed those in, and Ottawa keeps answering anyway.
The part that gives me some pause is price. At -135, Ottawa would have looked stronger. At -155, you are paying for the streak and the injury narrative on the Pittsburgh side. Even so, I still think the Senators are the rightful side because Pittsburgh’s recent defensive issues feel more dangerous here than Ottawa’s injury patchwork. The Pens can score, yes, but they have not defended well enough to earn much trust as a road dog in this range.
On the total, I lean over, but only lightly at 6.5. The reasons are obvious enough: Ottawa is missing key defensemen, Pittsburgh has been allowing too much, and both teams have enough finishing talent to cash an over if the game opens up early. Still, Ottawa’s recent shot suppression does keep me from making that the strongest angle. I think the number has mostly caught up.
If you want a secondary angle, Ottawa puck line plus money is at least worth a look for bettors who agree that Pittsburgh’s defense is trending down. I would still rather keep it simpler and back the home side to win the game, because Crosby can wreck a one-goal script in a hurry and that makes the puck line a little less comfortable than the raw price suggests.
Best Bet: Ottawa Senators moneyline (-155).
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