San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions August 9th 2025

San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox August 9th 2025

The Boston Red Sox take on the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park. The game is set for Saturday, August 9, 2025, at 8:40 PM. The Red Sox have a record of 64-52 and are ranked second in the AL East. They are coming off a loss but have won eight of their last ten games.

The Padres have a similar record at 64-51 and also hold the second spot in the NL West. They have won their last two games and have an impressive home record of 36-19. The starting pitchers are Lucas Giolito for the Red Sox and Michael King for the Padres. Weather conditions are expected to be clear with a light breeze.

Red Sox vs Padres Key Information

• Sport: Baseball
• Teams: Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
• Venue: PETCO Park in San Diego, CA
• Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025
• Betting Odds:
  • Red Sox Moneyline: +128
  • Padres Moneyline: -151
  • Red Sox Runline: +1.5 (-172)
  • Padres Runline: -1.5 (+144)
  • Total Over: 7.5 (-123)
  • Total Under: 7.5 (-101)

The Red Sox Can Win If…

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a loss against the Kansas City Royals, 7-3. Despite the loss, Romy Gonzalez and Trevor Story showed strong performances. Gonzalez had two doubles and two RBIs, while Story contributed with two singles and an RBI.

Boston’s batting lineup has been consistent this season. They are ranked 5th in both batting average (.254) and on-base percentage (.322). Their ability to hit doubles is unmatched, leading the league with 239 doubles.

Lucas Giolito will start for the Red Sox. He has a solid ERA of 3.58 and a WHIP of 1.19. With an 8-2 record, he provides a strong chance for Boston to secure a win.

The Padres Can Win If…

The San Diego Padres are coming off a tight 3-2 win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. In that game, Xander Bogaerts and Ryan O’Hearn each hit a home run, leading the Padres to victory. Freddy Fermin also contributed with three hits, showing the depth of the Padres’ lineup.

The Padres have a solid batting average of .251, ranking 8th in the league. Their on-base percentage is .317, placing them 9th, which shows they can get runners on base. With Michael King starting, who has an ERA of 2.59, the Padres have a strong chance on the mound.

Manny Machado is a key player for the Padres with a .300 batting average and 20 home runs. His performance can be a game-changer. With players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez also in the lineup, the Padres have the talent to win this game.

The Lean

The Padres are favored to win with a moneyline of -151. The Red Sox have a moneyline of +128. My model projects the Padres to win with a score of 5-3. The Padres have a strong pitching staff with a 3.59 ERA, ranked 2nd in the league, which gives them an edge.

The total for the game is set at 7.5 runs. My model projects a total score of 8 runs. The Red Sox rank 5th in slugging percentage, which suggests they can contribute to a higher-scoring game. Therefore, the recommendation is to take the over at 7.5 runs.

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Giolito, Red Sox Target Series Win Over Padres

Lucas Giolito has been one of the biggest bright spots for the Boston Red Sox this season, delivering consistent, high-quality starts after missing the entire 2024 campaign due to elbow surgery. With an 8-2 record and a 3.57 ERA, the right-hander will look to keep his momentum going when he faces the San Diego Padres on Saturday at Petco Park.

In his most recent outing, Giolito dominated the Houston Astros, allowing just one run on three hits over eight innings in a 6-1 victory. He threw 103 pitches, walked only one, and struck out four. The performance continued a stellar run dating back to June 10, during which Giolito has gone 7-1 with a 2.03 ERA. It was also the first time in four years that he completed eight innings in a game.

Boston’s confidence in Giolito and its starting staff likely contributed to the front office’s decision not to pursue another big-name pitcher behind ace Garrett Crochet at the trade deadline. Giolito has reiterated the team’s belief in its roster, noting that within the clubhouse there is a strong conviction they can win a lot of games. Bettors can track upcoming matchups and expert analysis through the latest MLB previews.

Red Sox Riding Momentum

The Red Sox opened the series in commanding fashion, defeating the Padres 10-2 on Friday night for their eighth win in nine games. Boston’s offense was patient and effective, drawing eight walks and collecting 10 hits against San Diego starter Nick Pivetta, who took his first loss at Petco Park this season.

For those following daily betting trends, the team’s recent form and lineup discipline are critical factors to consider. Updated selections and predictions are available in the MLB picks section.

Michael King Returns for Padres

San Diego will counter on Saturday with right-hander Michael King (4-2, 2.59 ERA), making his first big league start since May 18. King has been sidelined with a long thoracic nerve issue affecting his right shoulder strength. After beginning throwing again in late June, he worked his way back with a rehab assignment for Triple-A El Paso last Sunday, allowing six runs over 3 1/3 innings while striking out five.

King admitted he missed a few spots during that outing but expressed confidence heading into his return. Given the circumstances, it is unlikely King will throw more than 75 pitches, which could force the Padres to turn to their bullpen earlier than they would prefer. That scenario could be favorable for Boston, especially considering the Red Sox’s ability to work counts. Fans can review past performances and box scores in the MLB game results section.

Historical Matchup Notes

King has faced Boston 13 times in his career, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.54 ERA. Giolito’s only prior appearance against San Diego came in 2016, when he allowed four runs in 3 1/3 innings.

With Boston in strong form and Giolito pitching at an elite level, the matchup sets up as a pivotal test for a Padres team welcoming back a key starter under workload restrictions. Those looking to evaluate the game from a wagering standpoint can find deeper statistical breakdowns and advice in the MLB expert betting guide and track the top performers on the best handicappers leaderboard. For premium, data-driven selections, visit the buy picks page.