New York City Fc vs New York Red Bulls Picks and Predictions May 17th 2025

NYCFC Seeking Scoring Boost vs. Derby Rival Red Bulls

The Hudson River Derby resumes on Saturday, as New York City FC hosts the New York Red Bulls at Citi Field in what promises to be an emotionally charged Eastern Conference clash. Both teams enter the matchup with identical records (5-5-3, 18 points), but come in facing very different issues—especially NYCFC, whose goal-scoring woes have become increasingly glaring.

Red Bulls Dominating the Derby

The Red Bulls hold a narrow 11-10-4 edge in all-time regular-season matches against NYCFC. More recently, they had the upper hand in their 2-0 playoff win last November. Despite that dominance, the Red Bulls have struggled on the road this season, with a record of 0-4-2 away from home.

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That inconsistency was on full display during Wednesday’s 2-1 loss at Nashville SC. Defender Noah Elie reflected on the team’s fluctuating performance levels:

“Even if we play at home our way, we have to have a consistency in our performances. I don’t think we’ve had that so far in most games.”

While Elie tries to dismiss any home-road mentality shift, the stats speak louder, especially as the Red Bulls prepare to face an NYCFC squad looking to avenge last year’s postseason elimination.

NYCFC’s Goal Drought a Growing Concern

NYCFC enters the derby with one of the lowest scoring records in MLS—just 13 goals in 13 matches, despite generating more than 21 expected goals. Their 31.1% shot accuracy ranks as the fifth-lowest in the league, highlighting the disconnect between creation and conversion.

Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with D.C. United was another frustrating chapter. NYCFC outshot D.C. 17-5 and hit the post twice, once from Alonso Martinez and once from Aiden O’Neill, but simply could not find the net.

“We know that we have to be more clinical,” NYCFC coach Pascal Jansen admitted. “It doesn’t worry me at all because I know that the guys are able to create these chances. It’s a matter of time if they start to convert them into goals.”

Martinez leads the team with six goals, accounting for nearly half of NYCFC’s total output. However, the lack of support around him continues to hold the squad back.

If you’re looking for smart MLS picks and predictions, this matchup is tailor-made for those betting on a low-scoring affair. Based on both teams’ recent form and goal-scoring inconsistencies, exploring expert MLS picks may help you capitalize on this rivalry’s trends: MLS betting picks and insights.

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Star Players and Absences

While NYCFC relies on Martinez to carry the scoring burden, the Red Bulls will lean on Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, who has scored seven goals, including three in his last two outings. His recent form gives New York’s red side a significant attacking edge, especially against a team that’s still searching for offensive identity.

The Red Bulls, however, will be without defender Omar Valencia, who is suspended after accumulating five yellow cards. That could expose vulnerabilities in the back line—an opportunity NYCFC desperately needs to exploit if they want to stay in the playoff race.

Will the Bronx Be Blue or Red?

Saturday’s fixture doesn’t just carry the weight of three points—it comes with bragging rights and citywide pride. With both teams hovering in the middle of the table, a win could spark momentum heading into the summer stretch.