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Ligue 1 Predictions and Picks

Free Ligue 1 predictions and picks for every match. Home, draw and away, each priced, and the call in the first lines.

Ligue 1 teams

One giant, and everyone else

Watch Paris Saint-Germain’s matches. From December to May, three of the four longest prices that won in Ligue 1 were against PSG. Lyon beat them 2-1 at +750. Stade Rennais won 3-1 at +650. Monaco won 3-1 at +600.

The longest prices that won, Ligue 1 2025-26Nantes +950 over Marseille, 2-0Lyon +750 over Paris Saint-Germain, 2-1Stade Rennais +650 over Paris Saint-Germain, 3-1AS Monaco +600 over Paris Saint-Germain, 3-1AJ Auxerre +600 over Lille, 2-0Paris FC +500 over Paris Saint-Germain, 2-1
The underdog of the two sides winning outright, by its pre-game price; 31 such wins among the 170 priced games, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The longest of all was Nantes over Marseille in January, 2-0 at +950. Underdogs won 31 of the 170 priced matches outright.

Home sides, and how matches end

In 2025-26 Ligue 1 home sides won 141 of the 305 matches ESPN records, 46.2%, the second-strongest home record of the big five. Away sides won 90, 29.5%; 74 were drawn, 24.3%.

The commonest score was 1-0 either way, 60 matches, ahead of 2-1, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-1. Matches averaged 2.83 goals, both sides scored in 50.8%, and 52.8% went over 2.5.

The most common final scores, Ligue 1 2025-260%5%10%15%20%19.7%1-013.1%2-110.5%2-09.5%1-17.9%3-17.5%0-06.9%3-04.9%2-2Share of games
Share of 305 league games; a score counts either way round (2-1 includes 1-2). Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The totals

From December to May the books posted 126 matches at 2.5 goals, and 61 went over. The 42 posted at 3.5 went over 18 times. Close to even at 2.5, a lean to the under at 3.5.

How often the over came in, by the total posted, Ligue 1 2025-260%20%40%60%80%48.4%Total 2.542.9%Total 3.5Over
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026; totals posted on at least 15 games. Games per total: 1.5 2, 2.5 126, 3.5 42. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Scoring jumped around through the season: 3.44 a match in October, 2.47 in February, 3.14 in April.

Goals per game, month by month, Ligue 1 2025-26012343.04Aug2.59Sep3.44Oct2.50Nov2.50Dec3.00Jan2.47Feb2.55Mar3.14Apr2.89MayGoals per game
Both teams combined; months with fewer than 10 games left out. Games per month: Aug 27, Sep 27, Oct 36, Nov 36, Dec 18, Jan 31, Feb 36, Mar 31, Apr 35, May 28. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

Clubs that paid, and one that never did

Stake one unit per match on a Ligue 1 club to win, across its priced games from December to May. Stade Rennais returned 10.2 units on 11 wins in 19. Lyon returned 9.1 on 11. Metz did not win a priced match all half-season, 0 in 19, and cost 19 units. Nice won twice and cost 14.

Ligue 1 2025-26: one unit on a club to win, every priced gameStade Rennais+10.2 (11 wins in 19)Lyon+9.1 (11 wins in 19)Lorient+6.3 (7 wins in 19)AS Monaco+4.9 (9 wins in 19)Lille+3.1 (9 wins in 19)Le Havre AC-6.0 (4 wins in 19)Brest-6.7 (5 wins in 19)Angers-7.2 (4 wins in 19)Nice-14.0 (2 wins in 19)Metz-19.0 (0 wins in 19)
A draw loses the bet. Only the 170 of 305 games where ESPN holds all three prices, Dec 2025 to May 2026; the 5 best and 5 worst of 18 clubs. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

The draw, as priced

Clear favorites, 45% to 60%, drew 22 times in 74, above the 25.3% priced. Even matches drew 13 times in 51, below. Two small samples pulling in opposite directions: in Ligue 1, read the draw price match by match.

Ligue 1 2025-26: the draw, by how even the game was priced0%10%20%30%40%28.8%25.5%Even game25.3%29.7%Clear favorite18.1%20.0%Heavy favoriteDraw as pricedDraw came in
Priced games only, Dec 2025 to May 2026. Favorite's chance as priced, margin removed: even game under 45%, clear favorite 45% to 60%, heavy favorite over 60%. Games per band: even game 51, clear favorite 74, heavy favorite 45. Source: ESPN results and pre-game prices.

How we price a Ligue 1 match

Our club method, set out on the soccer predictions page, weighs a side’s goals at the venue against what its opponent allows, both scaled to the Ligue 1 average, to give a chance for each result. A five-point gap over the market’s chance is a bet.

Ligue 1 betting tips

  • Watch the PSG price. Three of the four longest winners of December to May came against them.
  • Start from the home side. 46.2% of Ligue 1 matches were home wins.
  • Lean under at 3.5. 18 overs in 42.
  • Read each draw price on its own. The bands went both ways.
  • No five-point gap, no bet.

Ligue 1 clubs

Ligue 1’s clubs each get a page, listed below; every page pairs the schedule with our picks.

Questions and answers

How strong is home advantage in Ligue 1?

Second only to LaLiga: in 2025-26, 141 of 305 matches, 46.2%.

Which Ligue 1 underdog paid the most?

Nantes, 2-0 winners over Marseille in January 2026, at +950. Lyon beat Paris Saint-Germain at +750.

How many goals are scored in a Ligue 1 match?

In 2025-26, 2.83 on average; 52.8% of matches went over 2.5.

Past games

  1. PSG at Strasbourg · 17 OctStrasbourg +550
  2. Auxerre at Rennes · 11 OctNo bet
  3. Marseille at Troyes · 11 OctNo bet
  4. Strasbourg at Nice · 11 OctStrasbourg +190
  5. Angers at Brest · 10 OctBrest +100
  6. Le Havre AC at Lille · 10 OctDraw +390
  7. Le Mans at PSG · 10 OctNo bet
  8. Paris FC at Lorient · 10 OctLorient +225
  9. Toulouse at Monaco · 10 OctToulouse +400
  10. Lyon at Lens · 9 OctLens +140
Show all 28 past predictions
  1. Brest at Auxerre · 20 SepBest Bet: Brest pick'em -130
  2. Lille at Nice · 20 SepBest Bet: Lille moneyline +100
  3. PSG at Marseille · 20 SepThe Marseille vs PSG recap turned on Ferran Torres’ introduction.
  4. Troyes at Angers · 19 SepThe Angers vs Troyes recap delivered the exact type of controlled scoreline the preview wanted.
  5. Lorient at Le Mans · 19 SepThe Le Mans vs Lorient recap ended with a milestone for the hosts.
  6. Rennes at Lyon · 19 SepThe Lyon vs Rennes recap produced the sharpest break from the pregame expectation on the Ligue 1 board.
  7. Strasbourg at Paris FC · 19 SepThe Paris FC vs Strasbourg recap came remarkably close to the preview script.
  8. Le Havre AC at Toulouse · 19 SepThe Toulouse vs Le Havre recap is the clearest losing betting result in this Ligue 1 group.
  9. Lens at Monaco · 18 SepThe Monaco vs Lens recap finished on the exact number that mattered to bettors.
  10. PSG at Brest · 13 SepThe Brest vs PSG recap is a clean example of why picking the winner and covering the handicap are different jobs.
  11. Lens at Le Mans · 13 SepThe Le Mans vs Lens recap produced a strong football comeback and a losing favorite ticket.
  12. Troyes at Lille · 13 SepThe Lille vs Troyes recap delivered the exact margin Lille -1.5 bettors needed.
  13. Nice at Auxerre · 12 SepThe Auxerre vs Nice recap ended with the home side finally breaking through.
  14. Angers at Le Havre AC · 12 SepThe Le Havre vs Angers recap produced exactly the kind of low-event match the ScoresAndStats preview anticipated.
  15. Toulouse at Lorient · 12 SepThe Lorient vs Toulouse recap became a lesson in how quickly a strong under position can collapse once the game state opens.
  16. Lyon at Paris FC · 12 SepThe Paris FC vs Lyon recap turned into a goalkeeper-and-structure match rather than the open meeting recent history might have suggested.
  17. Monaco at Strasbourg · 12 SepThe Strasbourg vs Monaco recap delivered the uncertainty the ScoresAndStats preview warned about.
  18. Marseille at Rennes · 11 SepThe Rennes vs Marseille recap delivered exactly what plus-money home bettors needed.