Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Picks and Predictions September 5th 2025

Rangers vs. Astros Prediction: Kelly Looks to Keep Texas in the Wild-Card Hunt

The Texas Rangers open a pivotal three-game series at home against the Houston Astros on Friday, September 5, 2025. First pitch is set for 8:05 PM ET in Arlington, TX.

Houston (77-64) leads the AL West by 3.5 games over Seattle but has dropped four of its last six. Texas (72-69) sits third in the division, five games back of the Astros and 1.5 games behind the Mariners for the final AL wild-card spot.

Matchup Overview

• Venue: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
• Date: Friday, Sept. 5, 2025 – 8:05 PM ET
• Probable Starters: Merrill Kelly (TEX) vs. TBD (HOU)
• Betting Odds: Rangers ML N/A, Astros ML N/A (Odds pending pitcher confirmation)

The Rangers Can Win If…

Despite a wave of injuries, Texas remains firmly in the playoff hunt. Marcus Semien, Evan Carter, and Nathan Eovaldi are all lost for the season, while Corey Seager remains sidelined. Adolis García is also expected to land on the IL, further testing the lineup’s depth.

Still, Merrill Kelly has been a bright spot since his acquisition at the trade deadline. He’s 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six starts for the Rangers and has won his last two outings, including 6 1/3 strong innings in a 9-3 win over Oakland. His track record against Houston is limited but impressive: a 0.73 ERA over 12 1/3 career innings.

For a deeper breakdown of tonight’s angles, head to our MLB Picks page for expert predictions.

The Astros Can Win If…

Houston’s offense needs to rebound after dropping two of three to the Yankees and falling 8-4 in Thursday’s finale. The Astros have lost four of six overall and enter this series searching for consistency.

With Spencer Arrighetti shut down for the season (elbow inflammation), Houston has yet to announce a starter for Friday. A bullpen game is possible, especially given their injuries and the need to manage workloads down the stretch. Still, Houston’s lineup has the power to break out, led by Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker, even as the rotation gets pieced together.

Track the updated lines and pitching news live on the MLB Scores and Odds board throughout the day.

Handicapper Spotlight

As the AL West race tightens, our MLB handicappers are zeroing in on key divisional matchups like Rangers vs. Astros. Check the leaderboard below to see which cappers are delivering the hottest runs before locking in your bets.

Betting Outlook

Without a confirmed starter for Houston, betting odds are in flux. What’s clear is that Kelly gives the Rangers stability at a time when their roster has been stretched thin. My projection leans Rangers in a close game, with the bullpen advantage tilting toward Houston if it turns into a late-inning battle.

For strategies on approaching games with uncertain pitching matchups, check the MLB Expert Betting Guide before finalizing plays.