New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Picks and Predictions December 21st 2025

Match Facts

Item	Details
Matchup	Miami Heat at New York Knicks
Date	Sunday, December 21, 2025
Tipoff	6:00 PM ET
Venue	Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
Records	Heat (15-13) vs Knicks (19-8)
Recent result	Both teams coming off Friday losses

NBA teams and NBA Eastern Conference odds

Line and Odds

• Spread: Knicks -8 (-110) | Heat +8 (-110)
• Moneyline: Knicks -310 | Heat +250
• Total: 236.5 (Over -110 | Under -110)

This number is basically a health tax on Miami plus a situational spot for New York: the Knicks are home again after a travel-heavy NBA Cup run, but the “hangover” risk is real after looking gassed late vs. Philadelphia. If New York plays with pace early and keeps the ball moving, it can pressure a shorthanded Heat rotation into breakdowns and free throws. If the Knicks start slow again, Miami’s physical style can turn this into a grind where +8 stays live deep into the fourth.

For live updates and alternate markets, check the NBA odds and lines.

Movement Matchup

The key matchup inside the number is shot quality vs. shot variance. New York can generate high-percentage looks by getting downhill and forcing rotations, then living at the rim and the foul line when threes don’t fall. Miami’s best counter is to make the Knicks execute in the half court for long stretches and steal extra possessions with activity, because the Heat don’t have much margin for empty trips if their creators are limited.

This also profiles as a “fourth-quarter” game. The Knicks’ late offense sputtered vs. the 76ers, while Miami’s legs gave out late vs. Boston. Whoever maintains spacing and decision-making under fatigue is the team most likely to separate.

Breakdown Injury Reports

Miami Heat

Player	Status	Notes
Tyler Herro	Out	Right big toe contusion
Nikola Jovic	Out	Right elbow contusion/laceration
Pelle Larsson	Out	Left ankle sprain
Davion Mitchell	Questionable	Left ankle sprain
Andrew Wiggins	Questionable	Lower back pain
Terry Rozier	Out	Not with team
Kasparas Jakucionis	Available	Left ankle soreness

New York Knicks

Player	Status	Notes
Miles McBride	Out	Left ankle sprain
Landry Shamet	Out	Right shoulder sprain

Miami’s list matters because it impacts two things that travel on the road: ball security and late-clock shot creation. If Mitchell and Wiggins can’t go (or are limited), the Heat will need even cleaner execution to avoid live-ball turnovers that become Knicks runouts.

Miami Heat Recent performance

Miami has dropped six of its last seven, and the pattern is consistent: stretches of strong effort followed by offensive droughts and a late-game slide when the rotation gets stretched thin. Against Boston, the young pieces produced (Jakucionis and Ware were efficient and confident), but it’s difficult to keep that level when the opponent can target matchups every trip and force multiple defensive decisions.

The Heat can still be competitive if they defend without fouling and keep their half-court spacing intact. The problem is that when the threes don’t fall, Miami’s shot profile can get ugly fast, and that’s when games drift from “close” to “down 12 with six minutes left” in a hurry.

New York Knicks Recent performance

New York’s NBA Cup win doesn’t count in the standings, but it absolutely counts in mileage. The Pacers game showed the fatigue early (down double digits) and the resilience late (Brunson’s winner). The 76ers game showed the next step New York still needs: sustaining offensive quality in the fourth quarter instead of relying on one tough shot at a time.

At home, the Knicks should look more organized, and the matchup favors their ability to generate paint touches and force Miami to defend for a full possession. If New York plays with the same urgency it had to come back vs. Indiana, it can control this game for long stretches and avoid letting Miami’s physicality dictate tempo.

Betting Insights and Trends

This game is largely decided by pace and turnovers. If Miami is taking care of the ball and forcing New York to play in the half court, the Heat can keep it close even if they’re down bodies. If New York creates transition chances and gets the Heat into rotation defense, the Knicks can build a margin without needing a huge three-point night.

The total is the tricky part because it’s sensitive to two variables: Miami’s available shot creation and whether New York’s legs show up as missed jumpers or as lazy defense. A shorthanded Miami that can’t score efficiently usually pulls the game toward the under, but Knicks transition points can spike totals quickly if the Heat get sloppy.

If you want a framework for handling these injury-driven numbers, use the NBA betting guide.

Best Bets and Prediction

Best bet: Knicks -8 (-110)

This is the best bet because New York has the healthier rotation and a clearer path to consistent offense: paint pressure, free throws, and second-chance points if the game turns physical. Miami can scrap for long stretches, but with key ball-handlers and scorers missing or questionable, they’re relying on shot variance and role-player shotmaking to stay within the number at MSG.

Prediction: Knicks 121, Heat 112

If you’re building a slate, start with NBA picks for additional angles.

Handicapper section

This is a situational handicap more than a “pure ratings” handicap. The Knicks need to prove the NBA Cup run didn’t cost them fourth-quarter execution, and Miami needs to prove it can survive offensively without full perimeter creation.

If you’re playing New York, the logic is that Miami’s compromised lineup eventually runs out of answers once the Knicks consistently get two feet in the paint. If you’re playing Miami, you’re betting New York’s legs are still heavy, the pace slows, and the Heat can keep the game in the half court long enough to turn +8 into a final-minute decision.

For tournament context that’s still shaping how teams are priced this month, reference NBA Cup odds.