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Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green Picks and Predictions – Thursday, February 12, 2026
Memphis heads to UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas for a Thursday night matchup with North Texas on February 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. With the spread sitting under a bucket, this is basically a game-script bet: which team is more likely to control the final eight minutes, and does the pace land closer to a grind or a run-and-gun look?
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The total of 136.5 suggests a more controlled scoring environment than what many bettors instinctively associate with Memphis, but North Texas has historically been the type of opponent that can dictate tempo and make you execute in the half court. If the Mean Green can get this game into longer possessions and keep Memphis out of transition, the under and the home side both become more attractive. If Memphis turns stops into quick points, the favorite role becomes easier to justify even on the road.
Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green Odds
These are the current betting lines for Thursday night, and you can track any late movement on the board at the latest college basketball odds.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Tigers | -121 | -1.5 (-107) | 136.5 |
| North Texas Mean Green | -104 | +1.5 (-116) | 136.5 |
Memphis Tigers Betting Form
Memphis is at its best when it’s turning defense into offense. When the Tigers are forcing turnovers, pushing pace, and getting early-clock looks, they can overwhelm teams that prefer to play in the half court. That matters here because a tight spread is easiest to cover when you can generate a few “easy” possessions—runouts, putbacks, or trips to the line—without needing perfect half-court shot-making.
The betting concern for Memphis backers is what happens when those transition points dry up. In slower games, every empty possession is magnified, and road favorites in coin-flip spots are vulnerable if they get sloppy with the ball or settle for low-quality jumpers. If Memphis is efficient but not forcing chaos, this can easily become a one-possession game late.
For recent performance, matchup context, and how Memphis has been trending across results and scoring outputs, visit the Memphis Tigers team page. And because this spread is tight enough that one missing starter can swing both the side and total, make sure to check the Memphis Tigers injury report before locking in a wager.
North Texas Mean Green Betting Form
North Texas is typically most comfortable when the game stays organized. The Mean Green want to value possessions, defend without fouling, and make opponents score through layered half-court execution. That style is especially relevant against a team like Memphis, because it can remove the most dangerous part of the Tigers’ profile: quick points off turnovers and misses.
For underdog (or short-home-dog) bettors, the cover path is usually tied to two things: limiting live-ball turnovers and forcing the opponent to take tough shots late in the clock. If North Texas can keep Memphis from running, this game naturally trends toward lower possession counts—and in that environment, +1.5 becomes a very live number.
To evaluate North Texas’ recent results, pace indicators, and how they’ve performed in similar game states, check the North Texas Mean Green team page. And since tempo-control teams can be sensitive to depth at guard and on the glass, confirm availability on the North Texas Mean Green injury report.
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Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green Matchup Breakdown
This matchup is all about whose style shows up for longer stretches.
- Tempo and transition: Memphis wants to speed possessions up off defensive stops. North Texas wants to get back, get set, and make Memphis score against a packed half-court look.
- Turnovers (type matters): A few dead-ball turnovers don’t always decide a game. Live-ball giveaways do. If North Texas is loose with the ball, Memphis can create the kind of separation that makes -1.5 feel cheap.
- Rebounding and extra possessions: In a total sitting at 136.5, second-chance points matter more. One or two extended possessions can swing both the spread and the total.
- Late-game execution: With a one-to-two point spread range, the final four minutes are likely to decide the ticket. Free throw shooting, shot selection while protecting a lead, and avoiding bad fouls become the whole handicap.
Memphis Tigers vs North Texas Mean Green Predictions and Best Bets
My lean is North Texas +1.5 (-116). In a game priced this tightly, I’d rather take the points with the side that’s more likely to control tempo at home and turn the matchup into a half-court execution contest. If North Texas can keep the turnover count manageable and avoid getting sped up, it has a realistic path to winning outright—and the +1.5 offers protection in a one-point finish.
The Memphis case is clear: if the Tigers can create a handful of high-value transition possessions (turnovers into points, long rebounds into runouts), they can win and cover even if the half-court offense is just average. But without that chaos edge, the game state favors the home team hanging around into the last few possessions.
On the total of 136.5, I lean under if you believe North Texas dictates pace and both teams spend more time in late-clock possessions. The over becomes more viable if Memphis forces turnovers early and the game opens up with free throws and transition points, but the number is telling you the market expects more control than chaos.
Best Bet: North Texas Mean Green +1.5 (-116).
NCAAB Picks and Handicappers on ScoresAndStats
For more matchup breakdowns and daily betting angles across the full slate, check today’s college basketball picks. If you’re tracking the futures landscape as conference races tighten, you can also follow movement with college basketball championship odds and monitor the awards market at John Wooden Award odds and predictions.
