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Ivy League play continues this Friday night as the Yale Bulldogs travel to Hanover to face the Dartmouth Big Green at the Edward Leede Arena. Tipping off at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+, this matchup features a Yale team currently sitting near the top of the conference standings with an 18-4 overall record and a 6-2 mark in league play. Dartmouth enters at 10-11, having recently dropped a tough contest to Harvard, but they remain a dangerous out at home where they have secured several key upsets this season.
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Yale enters the contest as a 9.5-point favorite, a number that speaks to their statistical dominance and a previous 15-point victory over the Big Green back in January. However, winning on the road in the Ivy League is rarely a given, and Dartmouth has already proven they can play up to the level of the league’s elite when their three-point shooting catches fire. With a total of 153.5, the market expects a fairly open game between two offenses that have shown the ability to push the pace.
Yale vs Dartmouth Odds
These are the current betting lines for Friday’s matchup, but as with any conference game, sharp money can move these numbers closer to tip. Be sure to stay updated with the latest college basketball odds for any significant shifts.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Yale | -510 | -9.5 (-105) | O 153.5 (-110) |
| Dartmouth | +360 | +9.5 (-121) | U 153.5 (-110) |
Yale Betting Form
The Bulldogs have been one of the most efficient offensive units in the country this year, currently ranking 17th in field goal percentage and 1st in the nation in three-point shooting at a blistering 41.7%. They are coming off a gritty overtime road win against Howard where Trevor Mullin dropped 23 points and Nick Townsend continued his stellar season with 17.2 points and nearly 8 rebounds per game. Yale does not just rely on one player; their depth in the frontcourt is spearheaded by Samson Aletan, who provides a defensive anchor and elite rebounding.
Yale is 7-2 on the road, showing a level of consistency that is rare for mid-major programs. Their ability to share the ball is reflected in their 16.4 assists per game, which leads to high-percentage looks at the rim and wide-open kick-outs for their shooters. While they are heavy favorites, it is worth noting that they occasionally let teams hang around if they aren’t careful with the ball. Before finalizing your card, you can view the full Yale stats and results to see their ATS trends. Also, keep an eye on the Yale injury report for any late-breaking news regarding their rotation.
Dartmouth Betting Form
Dartmouth is a team that thrives on variance. They rank 37th nationally in three-pointers made per game (10.5), meaning they can cover large spreads simply by getting hot from deep. Jayden Williams is their primary catalyst on the perimeter, while Brandon Mitchell-Day provides much-needed size and rebounding inside, averaging over 9 boards per contest. Their recent form has been spotty, but their 71-69 home win over Princeton earlier this season proves that they can beat anyone in the Ivy League when they are playing at the Leede Arena.
The Big Green are 5-4 at home and generally play with a much higher level of confidence in Hanover. They tend to start games with high energy, often catching visiting teams off guard in the first ten minutes. However, their defense has been a weak point, giving up nearly 75 points per game. For a deeper dive into their situational performance, check the Dartmouth schedule and stats page. Additionally, check the Dartmouth injury report to ensure their primary shooters are healthy and available for this high-tempo clash.
Yale vs Dartmouth Matchup Breakdown
This game will likely be decided by Yale’s interior efficiency versus Dartmouth’s perimeter volume. In their first meeting, Yale shot 50% from the floor and out-rebounded Dartmouth significantly. For the Big Green to keep this within the 9.5-point spread, they must avoid “live-ball” turnovers that allow Yale’s transition game to flourish. Yale is excellent at turning defensive stops into points, and Dartmouth’s 11.7 turnovers per game could be their undoing if they don’t value the possession.
- Three-Point Battle: Yale is the best shooting team in the country by percentage, but Dartmouth takes and makes more per game. If Dartmouth out-produces Yale from deep, the spread becomes very live.
- Rebounding Margin: Yale holds a distinct advantage on the offensive glass with Nick Townsend and Samson Aletan. Second-chance points were a huge factor in the first meeting.
- Pace: Both teams are comfortable playing in the 70-possession range. Dartmouth needs a faster game to maximize their shot volume, while Yale is happy to play efficient half-court sets.
When looking at advanced NCAAB betting strategies, notice that Yale is 19-1 as a favorite this season. They have been incredibly reliable at taking care of business against lower-tier competition. However, Dartmouth is 3-0 ATS in their last three games as a home underdog, suggesting they might be slightly undervalued by the market in this specific spot.
Yale vs Dartmouth Predictions and Best Bets
While 9.5 points is a significant number to lay on the road, I think Yale is just too efficient for Dartmouth to stop consistently. Yale’s offense averages over 83 points per game, and Dartmouth has struggled to contain teams with multiple scoring threats. I expect Nick Townsend to have a big night against a Dartmouth interior that lacks the size to match him for 40 minutes. Perhaps Dartmouth keeps it close in the first half, but Yale’s depth usually takes over in the final ten minutes.
Regarding the total, 153.5 feels like it might be a tad low given how these teams have been playing lately. Yale’s last few road games have consistently gone over the total, and Dartmouth’s reliance on the three-ball naturally leads to high-possession games. My model projects a final score in the neighborhood of 84-72 in favor of the Bulldogs, which pushes us toward the Over.
Best Bet: Yale -9.5 (-105) and Over 153.5 (-110).
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