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Our number has Arkansas by 0.4. At +7, take Tulsa.
Arkansas is a 7-point favourite at DraftKings, down from 8.5 at the open. Our number is Arkansas by 0.4, close to a coin flip on the margin. The gap is 6.6 points, and the threshold for a bet here is 3.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Arkansas is 1-6 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 8.3 points a game across 7 games. Tulsa is 3-4 on the road against FBS teams, losing by 9.1 a game across 7 games. The difference is 0.8 points in Arkansas’s favour. Half of it is 0.4.
Seven games a side is a small sample. One game on each side comes from 2026: Arkansas’s 45-17 home loss to Georgia on 19 September, and Tulsa’s 23-17 win at Sam Houston.
Arkansas at home
The spread asks whether Arkansas wins by 8 or more. It did that once in 7 home games against FBS teams, 56-14 over Arkansas State in 2025.
Two of the six home losses were by 3 points: 45-42 to Texas A&M and 38-35 to Mississippi State. The other four were by 9 or more: 56-13 to Notre Dame, 33-24 to Auburn, 31-17 to Missouri and the Georgia game.
Tulsa’s road record is uneven. It won 19-12 at Oklahoma State, 26-25 at Army and 23-17 at Sam Houston. It lost 21-14 at New Mexico State, 45-7 at Memphis, 41-27 at East Carolina and 40-21 at Florida Atlantic.
2026 so far
Tulsa is 3-0. It beat Oklahoma State 24-10 and East Texas A&M 42-0 at home, and won at Sam Houston. Against its two FBS opponents it has scored 23.5 a game and allowed 13.5.
Arkansas is 1-2 and has lost two in a row. It beat North Alabama 31-14, lost 43-10 at Utah, then lost to Georgia. Against FBS teams it has scored 13.5 a game and allowed 44.0. This is not a conference game: Tulsa plays in the American, Arkansas in the SEC.
Last season
Arkansas went 2-10 in 2025, and lost by only 0.9 points a game. Five of its ten losses were by 3 points or fewer. It was 2-5 at home and 0-5 on the road.
Tulsa went 4-8 and lost by 5.8 a game, 2-4 at home and 2-4 on the road. Neither team played after the regular season. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
The price
Arkansas opened at -8.5 and is -7 now, read 24 September 2026 at 04:29 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 1.5-point move toward Tulsa. Both sides of the spread are priced at -110.
The moneyline has Arkansas at -270 and Tulsa at +220, from -285 and +230 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Arkansas to win 70.0% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has Arkansas at 54.2%, much closer to our number than to the market.
All three have Arkansas as the likelier winner. Ours and ESPN’s make it close; the price does not.
Pick: Tulsa +7
Tulsa +7 at -110. The gap is 6.6 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 7 and 7. Arkansas has won at home against an FBS team once in seven tries, and the spread asks it to win by 8.
What changes it
A line move toward Tulsa. At +3.5 the gap is 3.1 and the bet stands. At +3 it is 2.6, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 52.5 and is 50.5 now, over -105 and under -115.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, Tulsa’s games went over 50.5 in 7 of 13, and Arkansas’s in 11 of 13. This season Tulsa’s three games produced 34, 40 and 42 points. Arkansas’s produced 45, 53 and 62.
Pass on the total at 50.5. Arkansas’s games run over and Tulsa’s 2026 games have all stayed under, and the two do not settle it.
Tulsa at Arkansas, Saturday 26 September, 8:00 PM ET, Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 04:29 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23-24 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
