CFB
SpreadTotalMoneyUNT-2.5U 56.5-130TLSA+2.5O 56.5+110
CFB · Thursday 1 October
North Texas at Tulsa Final Score: North Texas Win 45-44 in Overtime
Final: North Texas Mean Green 45, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 44 in overtime, Thursday 1 October at H. A. Chapman Stadium.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Our number has North Texas by 3.7. At +1.5, take North Texas.” North Texas +1.5 won: North Texas won by 1.
What decided it
North Texas won the third quarter by 14, and the game went to overtime. North Texas turned the ball over 3 times to Tulsa’s 0, and gained 559 yards to 352.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas Mean Green | 3 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 0 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 44 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is UNT -3, with a total of 56.5. North Texas did not cover as the favourite. The 89 points went over the total.
What comes next
North Texas plays next at the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday 24 October. Tulsa plays next against the Army Black Knights on Friday 23 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “North Texas at Tulsa Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number has North Texas by 3.7. At +1.5, take North Texas.
Tulsa opened as a 1.5-point underdog at DraftKings and is a 1.5-point favourite now. Our number goes the other way: North Texas by 3.7. The gap between our number and the spread is 5.2 points, and the threshold for a bet is 3.
How the number is built
Our number is half the difference between the home team’s average margin at home and the visitor’s average margin on the road, against FBS teams only, 2025 and 2026 together.
Tulsa is 2-4 at home against FBS teams over that span, losing by 2.2 points a game across 6 games. North Texas is 5-3 on the road against FBS teams, winning by 5.2 a game across 8 games. The difference is 7.4 points in North Texas’s favour. Half of it is 3.7.
Neither sample is large. Six and eight games is what there is. Only one of Tulsa’s six comes from 2026, a 24-10 win over Oklahoma State on 5 September.
North Texas on the road
The road number rests mostly on 2025. North Texas went 5-1 in road games against FBS teams that season: 33-30 at Western Michigan, 45-38 at Army, 54-20 at Charlotte, 53-24 at UAB and 56-24 at Rice. The one loss was 34-21 at Tulane.
This season is the other half, and it is bad. North Texas lost 52-16 at Indiana on 5 September and 49-35 at Texas State on 19 September. Those two games take the road average from +15.3 over the six 2025 games down to +5.2 over all eight.
That is the strongest argument against the pick. The method weights every game the same, so two heavy 2026 road losses count as two games out of eight, and no more.
Tulsa at home
Tulsa’s home record against FBS teams in 2025 was 1-4. It lost 42-23 to Navy, 31-14 to Tulane, 38-37 to Temple and 31-24 to UAB. The win was 31-14 over Oregon State.
The 24-10 win over Oklahoma State this September is the only 2026 game in the sample. One game moves a six-game average a long way, and this one moved it up.
2026 so far
North Texas is 2-2 and has scored 39.5 points a game while allowing 30.2. Against FBS teams alone it is 1-2, scoring 31.7 and allowing 35.7. The win in that group was 44-6 over UNLV at home. Its last game was a 63-14 win over Houston Christian, a team outside the FBS.
Tulsa is 3-1. Against FBS teams it is 2-1, scoring 17.7 points a game and allowing 20.3. It won 23-17 at Sam Houston on 12 September and lost 34-6 at Arkansas on 26 September.
This is a conference game. Both teams are 0-0 in the American Conference.
Last season
North Texas went 12-2 in 2025 and won by 18.6 points a game, scoring 45.1. Its season ended with a 49-47 win over San Diego State on 27 December, at a neutral site.
Tulsa went 4-8 and lost by 5.8 a game. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or 2026.
The price
Tulsa opened at +1.5 and is -1.5 now, read 28 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. That is a 3-point move toward Tulsa. North Texas +1.5 is priced at -115, Tulsa -1.5 at -105.
The moneyline has Tulsa at -120 and North Texas at +100, from -108 and -112 at the open. With the margin removed, that prices Tulsa to win 52.2% of the time. ESPN’s FPI has North Texas at 59.1%.
So the market has moved one way and two separate measures point the other. Our number and FPI both make North Texas the likelier winner.
Pick: North Texas +1.5
North Texas +1.5 at -115. The gap is 5.2 points against a 3-point threshold.
It rests on 14 games, split 8 and 6. At the open, with North Texas giving 1.5, the gap was 2.2 and this was a pass. The 3-point move toward Tulsa is what made it a bet.
What changes it
A move back toward the open. At North Texas -0.5 the gap is 3.2 and the bet stands. At North Texas -1 it is 2.7, and the call becomes a pass.
Availability is the other thing, and this page does not state it. Check the injury report before you bet.
The total
The total opened at 57.5 and has not moved. The over is -112 and the under -108.
Against FBS teams across 2025 and 2026, North Texas’s games went over 57.5 in 13 of 16, and Tulsa’s in 4 of 14. North Texas’s four games this season produced 68, 50, 84 and 77 points. Tulsa’s produced 34, 40, 42 and 40.
Pass on the total at 57.5. The two teams pull in opposite directions.
North Texas at Tulsa, Thursday 1 October, 9:00 PM ET, H. A. Chapman Stadium, Tulsa. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 28 September 2026, 17:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.