Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Friday 9 October
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on Werder Bremen at Borussia Dortmund. Our number has Dortmund 4.0 points above the market, short of the 5 a bet needs.
DraftKings has Borussia Dortmund at -295, the draw at +425 and Werder Bremen at +600. With the book’s margin removed, that is 69.1% for Dortmund, 17.6% for the draw and 13.2% for Bremen. Our number gives Dortmund 73.1%, the draw 17.2% and Bremen 9.7%.
The widest gap is on Dortmund, 4.0 points. The draw sits 0.4 points below the market and Bremen 3.5 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, so this is a pass.
How the number is built
One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.
Both sides take last season’s numbers. Dortmund have played 2 home games this season and Bremen 2 away games, and the method needs 6 at the venue before it uses this season. So Dortmund’s number comes from their 17 home games of 2025-26, and Bremen’s from their 17 away games of 2025-26, each against that season’s league averages: 1.78 goals a game for the home side and 1.46 for the visitor, over 306 games.
Dortmund went 13-2-2 at home last season, scoring 2.35 a game and conceding 0.94. Bremen went 3-4-10 away, scoring 1.06 and conceding 1.71. Against the averages, Dortmund scored at 1.32 times the home rate and Bremen conceded at 0.96 times it. Bremen scored at 0.73 times the away rate and Dortmund conceded at 0.65 times it. That gives Dortmund 2.26 expected goals and Bremen 0.68.
This season’s league averages are not used. Over the first 36 games the home side has scored 2.39 a game, a figure built on four rounds.
The table, this season and last
Dortmund lead the table after 4 games: 4 wins, 9 goals scored, 2 conceded, 12 points. Last season they finished 2nd with 73 points from 34 games. Bremen are 8th with 7 points from 4 games, 8 scored and 8 conceded. Last season they finished 15th with 32 points.
The case against the pass points the other way from the market. This season Dortmund are 2-0-0 at home with 5 scored and none conceded, and Bremen are 0-1-1 away with 2 scored and 5 conceded. That leans further toward Dortmund than last season does. It is two games at each venue, and two games prove nothing.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the result. The widest gap is 4.0 points on Dortmund, against a 5-point threshold.
What changes it
The price. With the book’s margin as it stands, Dortmund become a bet at -277 or longer, the draw at +659 or longer, and Bremen at +1870 or longer. Dortmund are the only one of the three within reach of the current price.
The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 9 October. Check the team news before you bet.
The total
The total is 3.5 goals, over -105 and under -120. With the margin removed the market has the over at 48.4%. Our number has it at 34.0%, and the under at 66.0% against the market’s 51.6%. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.
Last season Dortmund’s games went over 3.5 in 11 of 34, and Bremen’s in 12 of 34.
The last meetings
ESPN holds five meetings since March 2024. Dortmund won three, 2-1 and 2-0 at Bremen and 3-0 at home, and two were drawn, 0-0 at Bremen and 2-2 at Dortmund. The method does not use them.
Werder Bremen at Borussia Dortmund, German Bundesliga, Friday 9 October, 2:30 PM ET, Signal Iduna Park. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:35 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.