Skip to content
Scores&Stats
ES
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October

SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Union Berlin Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

No bet on SV Elversberg at 1. FC Union Berlin. Elversberg have 2 away games this season, fewer than the 6 the method needs, and no away record of 4 games or more from last season in this league.

DraftKings has 1. FC Union Berlin at +125, the draw at +265 and SV Elversberg at +175. With the book’s margin of 8.2% removed, that is 41.1% for Union, 25.3% for the draw and 33.6% for Elversberg. There is no number of ours to set against those prices, for the reason below.

How the number is built, and why there is none

One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns them into home, draw and away chances.

The method needs 6 games at the venue this season. A side short of that this season takes its numbers from last season’s games at the same venue. Union have 2 home games this season, so their side would come from their 17 home games of 2025-26: 5-7-5, 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded a game.

Elversberg have 2 away games this season and are not in the 2025-26 Bundesliga table, so there is no away record to fall back on. With one side unmeasured, the method gives no number and no bet. This season’s league averages do not fill the gap: 2.39 goals a game for the home side and 1.42 for the visitor, over 36 games, describe the league, not Elversberg.

1. FC Union Berlin at home and SV Elversberg away1. FC Union Berlin at home and SV Elversberg away, this season and last1. FC Union Berlin at home, 2026-27 German Bundesliga0-1-1 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 3.00 a game1. FC Union Berlin at home, 2025-26 German Bundesliga5-7-5 in 17scored 1.53 a gameconceded 1.53 a gameSV Elversberg away, 2026-27 German Bundesliga1-1-0 in 2scored 2.00 a gameconceded 1.50 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Union are 17th of 18 after 4 games: no wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 4 goals scored and 17 conceded, 1 point. Last season they finished 11th with 39 points from 34 games, going 10-9-15 with 44 scored and 58 conceded. Elversberg are 7th with 7 points: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 8 scored and 7 conceded.

1. FC Union Berlin and SV Elversberg in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and last1. FC Union Berlin2026-27 German Bundesliga17 of 18, 1 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliga11 of 18, 39 pts in 34SV Elversberg2026-27 German Bundesliga7 of 18, 7 pts in 42025-26 German Bundesliganot in this leagueThree points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the pass is this season’s results. At home Union are 0-1-1 with 4 scored and 6 conceded. Away Elversberg are 1-1-0 with 4 scored and 3 conceded. The market still makes Union the favourite. Two games at each venue are too few for the method, and it does not guess.

Pick: no bet

No bet on the result. Elversberg’s away side cannot be measured yet. This is their third away game in the league, and the method prices them once they have played 6 there.

What changes it

No price changes it. The call is set by the sample, not by the gap.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 3.5 goals, over +135 and under -170. With the margin removed the market has the over at 40.3% and the under at 59.7%. There is no number of ours for the total either, and it would be reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

All 4 of Union’s games this season went over 3.5, and 2 of Elversberg’s 4 did. Last season Union’s games went over 3.5 in 16 of 34.

SV Elversberg at 1. FC Union Berlin, German Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October, 9:30 AM ET, Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:39 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.