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San Diego FC vs New York Red Bulls Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet San Diego FC at +140. The bet holds down to +132.

DraftKings has the New York Red Bulls at +155, the draw at +275 and San Diego FC at +140. With the book’s margin of 7.5% removed, that is 36.5% for New York, 24.8% for the draw and 38.7% for San Diego. Our number gives New York 30.9%, the draw 24.0% and San Diego 45.1%.

The gap on San Diego is 6.4 points. New York sit 5.6 points below the market and the draw 0.8 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. San Diego clear it by 1.4 points, a thin margin.

Our number gives New York Red Bulls 30.9 percent, the market 36.5 percentSan Diego FC at New York Red Bulls: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals30.9%24%45.1%The market1X2 prices, margin removed36.5%24.8%38.7%Prices: New York Red Bulls +155, draw +275, San Diego FC +140. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.New York Red BullsSan Diego FC
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides use this season’s numbers. New York have played 13 home games in the 2026 MLS season and San Diego 13 away games, past the 4 the method needs. The league averages are this season’s too: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.

New York are 4-3-6 at home, scoring 1.38 a game and conceding 2.00. San Diego are 2-5-6 away, scoring 1.15 and conceding 1.77. Against the averages, New York score at 0.75 times the home rate and San Diego concede at 0.96 times it. San Diego score at 0.83 times the away rate and New York concede at 1.44 times it. That gives New York 1.34 expected goals and San Diego 1.66.

New York Red Bulls at home and San Diego FC awayNew York Red Bulls at home and San Diego FC away, this season and lastNew York Red Bulls at home, 2026 MLS (our number)4-3-6 in 13scored 1.38 a gameconceded 2.00 a gameNew York Red Bulls at home, 2025 MLS10-3-4 in 17scored 2.12 a gameconceded 1.35 a gameSan Diego FC away, 2026 MLS (our number)2-5-6 in 13scored 1.15 a gameconceded 1.77 a gameSan Diego FC away, 2025 MLS12-1-4 in 17scored 2.29 a gameconceded 1.41 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The figure that carries the number is New York’s home defence: 26 goals conceded in 13 games.

The table, this season and last

New York are 8th of 15 in the Eastern Conference after 27 games: 9 wins, 6 draws, 12 defeats, 34 scored and 51 conceded, 33 points. In 2025 they finished 10th in the East with 43 points from 34 games. San Diego are 12th of 15 in the Western Conference with 32 points: 8 wins, 8 draws, 11 defeats, 47 scored and 47 conceded. In 2025 they finished 1st in the West with 63 points.

New York Red Bulls and San Diego FC in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastNew York Red Bulls2026 MLS8 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 33 pts in 272025 MLS10 of 15 in the Eastern Conference, 43 pts in 34San Diego FC2026 MLS12 of 15 in the Western Conference, 32 pts in 272025 MLS1 of 15 in the Western Conference, 63 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the bet is San Diego’s own away record. They have won 2 of 13 away games this season, and the number leans on what New York concede rather than on what San Diego have done on the road. Last season does not argue against it. New York went 10-3-4 at home in 2025 and San Diego 12-1-4 away, and run on those numbers the method would also make San Diego the more likely winner. The method uses this season once a side has 4 games at the venue, and both have 13.

Pick: San Diego FC +140

Bet San Diego FC on the result, at +140. Shorter than +132, with the book’s margin as it stands, the gap falls below 5 points and it stops being a bet.

What changes it

The price. San Diego stay a bet down to +132, close to today’s +140. New York would become a bet at +259 or longer, and the draw at +391 or longer.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 3.5 goals, over +100 and under -125. With the margin removed the market has the over at 47.4% and the under at 52.6%. Our number has the over at 35.2% and the under at 64.8%, a gap of 12.2 points toward the under. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total.

This season New York’s games went over 3.5 in 10 of 27, and San Diego’s in 14 of 27.

San Diego FC at New York Red Bulls, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 7:30 PM ET, Sports Illustrated Stadium. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.