Nashville SC vs Austin FC Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the draw at +265. The bet holds down to +194.

DraftKings has Austin FC at +270, the draw at +265 and Nashville SC at -115. With the book’s margin of 7.9% removed, that is 25.0% for Austin, 25.4% for the draw and 49.6% for Nashville. Our number gives Austin 21.5%, the draw 36.7% and Nashville 41.8%.

The gap on the draw is 11.3 points. Nashville sit 7.8 points below the market and Austin 3.5 below. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. The draw clears it by 6.3 points.

Our number still makes Nashville the most likely winner. The bet is on the price of the draw: +265 pays as if it happens 25.4% of the time, and our number has it at 36.7%.

How the number is built

One clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, both measured against the league average, and a Poisson distribution, the standard count model for goals, turns the two figures into home, draw and away chances.

Both sides use this season’s numbers. Austin have played 13 home games in the 2026 MLS season and Nashville 13 away games, well past the 4 the method needs. The league averages are this season’s too: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.

Austin are 4-6-3 at home, scoring 1.46 a game and conceding 1.15. Nashville are 5-5-3 away, scoring 1.08 and conceding 0.69. Against the averages, Austin score at 0.80 times the home rate and Nashville concede at 0.38 times it. Nashville score at 0.77 times the away rate and Austin concede at 0.83 times it. That gives Austin 0.55 expected goals and Nashville 0.89.

Two low scoring rates meet two low conceding rates, and that is where the draw comes from. Austin have drawn 6 of their 13 home games and Nashville 5 of their 13 away games.

The table, this season and last

Nashville lead the Eastern Conference after 27 games: 18 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, 55 scored and 21 conceded, 60 points. At home they are 13-1-0; away, 5-5-3. Austin are 13th of 15 in the Western Conference with 31 points: 7 wins, 10 draws, 10 defeats, 35 scored and 47 conceded. In 2025 Austin finished 6th in the West with 47 points, and Nashville 6th in the East with 54.

The case against the bet is the goals. The method multiplies rates, and with these two sides it expects 1.44 goals in all. Austin’s home games this season have averaged 2.62 goals and Nashville’s away games 1.77, both above that. Last season Nashville conceded 1.65 a game away. The market’s total, below, sits far from ours. If this game has more goals than the number expects, the draw is less likely than 36.7%.

Pick: the draw +265

Bet the draw on the result, at +265. Shorter than +194, with the book’s margin as it stands, the gap falls below 5 points and it stops being a bet.

What changes it

The price. The draw stays a bet down to +194. Nashville would become a bet at +152 or longer, and Austin at +462 or longer.

The lineups. This page states nothing about who is available on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total

The total is 2.5 goals, over -140 and under +110. With the margin removed the market has the over at 55.1% and the under at 44.9%. Our number has the over at 17.8% and the under at 82.2%, a gap of 37.3 points. That is reference only: the method bets the result, never the total. That is the size of the disagreement on goals, and the draw bet rests on the low side of it.

This season Austin’s games went over 2.5 in 18 of 27, and Nashville’s in 16 of 27.

The last meetings

ESPN holds five meetings since May 2021. Nashville won three, Austin one, and one was drawn, 1-1 in September 2022. The method does not use them.

Nashville SC at Austin FC, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 8:30 PM ET, Q2 Stadium. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.