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San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

By Keylor SantosUpdated 8 Oct 2026

Bet the San Jose Earthquakes at +245. The bet holds down to +226. Our number makes them 33.4% to win at Colorado, against 26.8% in the market.

DraftKings has the Colorado Rapids at -110, the draw at +275 and the San Jose Earthquakes at +245. With the book’s 8.0% margin taken out, that is 48.5% for Colorado, 24.7% for the draw and 26.8% for San Jose. Our number gives Colorado 40.2%, the draw 26.3% and San Jose 33.4%.

The gap on San Jose is 6.6 points. An outcome is a bet when our chance is 5 points or more above the market’s, and the widest gap wins. The draw is 1.6 points above the market, short of the threshold, and Colorado 8.3 below it.

Our number gives Colorado Rapids 40.2 percent, the market 48.5 percentSan Jose Earthquakes at Colorado Rapids: home, draw, away, ours against the market'sOur numberexpected goals40.2%26.3%33.4%The market1X2 prices, margin removed48.5%24.7%26.8%Prices: Colorado Rapids -110, draw +275, San Jose Earthquakes +245. An outcome is a bet when ours is 5 points or more above the market's.Colorado RapidsSan Jose Earthquakes
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 2026-10-08 07:40 UTC.

How the number is built

The method in one clause: each side’s expected goals are its scoring rate at the venue times the opponent’s conceding rate at the other venue, each measured against the league average, and a Poisson count of goals turns the two figures into home, draw and away.

Both numbers come from this season. Colorado have played 13 home games in 2026 MLS and San Jose 13 away games. The league averages are this season’s: 1.83 goals a game for the home side and 1.39 for the visitor, over 405 games.

Colorado at home have scored 1.92 a game and conceded 0.92. Against those averages that is 1.05 times the home scoring rate and 0.66 times the conceding rate. San Jose away have scored 1.85 and conceded 1.31, which is 1.33 times the visitor’s scoring rate and 0.71 times the home side’s. Multiplied out, Colorado’s expected goals are 1.37 and San Jose’s 1.23.

Colorado Rapids at home and San Jose Earthquakes awayColorado Rapids at home and San Jose Earthquakes away, this season and lastColorado Rapids at home, 2026 MLS (our number)9-1-3 in 13scored 1.92 a gameconceded 0.92 a gameColorado Rapids at home, 2025 MLS8-4-5 in 17scored 1.47 a gameconceded 1.24 a gameSan Jose Earthquakes away, 2026 MLS (our number)7-3-3 in 13scored 1.85 a gameconceded 1.31 a gameSan Jose Earthquakes away, 2025 MLS6-2-9 in 17scored 1.35 a gameconceded 1.82 a gameRecord is wins-draws-losses in league games. Our number uses this season at the venue from six games; below that, last season.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The table, this season and last

Twenty-seven games in, the San Jose Earthquakes are 4th of 15 in the Western Conference with 45 points, 13-6-8, wins first. The Colorado Rapids are 8th of 15 with 36 points, 11-3-13. In 2025 the two finished level on 41 points, San Jose 10th in the West and Colorado 11th.

Colorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes in the tableLeague position and points per game, this season and lastColorado Rapids2026 MLS8 of 15 in the Western Conference, 36 pts in 272025 MLS11 of 15 in the Western Conference, 41 pts in 34San Jose Earthquakes2026 MLS4 of 15 in the Western Conference, 45 pts in 272025 MLS10 of 15 in the Western Conference, 41 pts in 34Three points for a win, one for a draw.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

The case against the call is Colorado’s results at home. They have won 9 of 13 there this season, 9-1-3, a 69.2% win rate against the 40.2% we give them. The method reads their goals, 25 scored and 12 conceded, and not their results. San Jose’s 7-3-3 away record is the other half of the number. The teams met at Colorado on 20 May 2026, and Colorado won 2-0.

Pick: San Jose Earthquakes +245

The San Jose Earthquakes at +245 are the bet, read on 8 October 2026 at 07:40 UTC at DraftKings via ESPN. The gap is 6.6 points against a threshold of 5.

It stops being a bet at +225 or shorter. At today’s margin, +226 is the shortest price that still leaves our 33.4% 5 points above the market’s.

What changes it

The price. San Jose stay a bet from +245 down to +226. The draw would need +335 or longer, and Colorado +163 or longer.

This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the team news before you bet.

The total and the last meetings

The total is 3.5 goals, over +140 and under -175. With the margin out, the market makes the over 39.6%. Our Poisson count gives 26.3%, which puts the under 13.3 points above the market. The total is reference only: the method bets the result, never the goals.

Of the last five meetings ESPN holds, the visiting side won four, including San Jose’s 2-0 at Colorado on 10 May 2025 and 3-2 there on 11 May 2024. They are not in the method.

Last meetings of Colorado Rapids and San Jose EarthquakesColorado Rapids and San Jose Earthquakes: the last meetings ESPN holds20 May 2026Colorado Rapids 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes10 May 2025Colorado Rapids 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes15 Mar 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Colorado Rapids11 May 2024Colorado Rapids 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes13 Apr 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0-3 Colorado RapidsHome side first. All competitions ESPN lists for the pair.
Source: ESPN league results and tables, read 8 October 2026.

San Jose Earthquakes at Colorado Rapids, MLS, Saturday 10 October, 9:30 PM ET, Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, Colorado. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 8 October 2026, 07:40 UTC. Results and tables: ESPN, read 8 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.