Guide to Australian Open Betting

The Australian Open kicks off the new season of tennis every year and is the first Grand Slam tournament bettors can wager on. As such, many players come into the tournament refreshed and determined, so upsets are pretty common. You can find a lot of value in betting on the underdogs at the Australian Open, but it takes a bit of research to find good wagers.

Our guide to Australian Open betting will give you the inside scoop on the best statistics you can use to make informed wagers. Plus, we have provided a list of tips for anyone betting on the Open, as well as some helpful tidbits about the tournament itself.

Australian Open Betting Odds

How to Bet on the Australian Open

Metrics to Consider

Australian Open Betting Tips

Australian Open Betting Odds

Understanding the Australian Open

The Australian Open is the first Grand Slam tennis tournament of the year, kicking off the season in mid-January. It runs for two weeks, coinciding with the Australia Day holiday. The tournament is played at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

The tournament features singles competitions for both men and women, along with doubles (men’s, women’s, and mixed) and competitions for juniors, wheelchair athletes, and even legends exhibitions. Games are played using a best of 2 tie-break sets and a match tie-break.

Top-ranked players (with high ATP or WTA) are invited to participate, but lower-ranked players can compete for one of 16 qualifying spots in other competitions leading up the Open. Some players can also receive a Wildcard, but these players are typically promising young players, or older players returning from an injury or leave of absence.

How to Bet on the Australian Open

There aren’t as many wager types for Australian Open betting as there are for sports like basketball or American football. However, you have a few solid ways of betting the Open, all of which can be bet in real time if your sportsbook supports live betting.

Match Outcome (Moneyline): This is the most basic tennis wager. You’re simply picking the winner of the entire match. The odds will be displayed with a minus sign (-) next to the favorite and a plus sign (+) next to the underdog.

Set Spread: This wager adds a handicap to the favorite, making the match more even on paper. Imagine a match where Rafael Nadal is heavily favored. A set spread might give him a -2.5 handicap. This means Nadal would need to win the match in straight sets or win 3-1 to cover the spread for your bet to win.

Over/Under on Games: Here, you’re not picking a winner, but rather predicting the total number of games played in the entire match. Bookmakers will set a number (e.g., 22.5 games) and you can bet on whether the actual number of games played will be Over or Under that number.

Props: These are wagers on specific events happening during the match, independent of the winner. Here are some common prop examples:

First Set Winner: Who will win the opening set?
Total Aces Served (Over/Under): Will there be more or fewer aces served than the number set by the bookmaker?
Will there be a Tiebreaker?: Yes or no wager on whether a set will be decided in a tiebreaker.

Metrics to Consider When Looking for Australian Open Value

If you’re serious about betting on the Australian Open, you need to start using the following stats. Each one offers some insight into a player’s consistency and style, and by combining them you can get a pretty good idea of how matches will play out.

First Serve Percentage & Win Percentage

The combination of FS% and Win % can help you identify which players are more likely to succeed in the Australian Open. Here are some of the common combinations of stats:

High First Serve Percentage + Low Win Percentage: This could indicate a player with a strong serve but weaknesses in rallies. They might win easy points on their serve, but struggle to return effectively. Look for them against opponents with weaker returns who might struggle to capitalize on second serves.

Low First Serve Percentage + High Win Percentage: This suggests a player who relies more on their returning and baseline skills. They might be good at exploiting weak second serves. Look for them against big servers who struggle with consistency.

Low First Serve Percentage + Improving Win Percentage: This could indicate a player overcoming serving issues and finding their form. They might be a good value bet if the odds haven’t yet adjusted to their recent improvement.

First Serve Return Win Percentage

First Serve Return Win tells you how often a player wins points on their opponent’s first serve and can be another strong tool for advanced tennis bettors.

Players with a high FSRW% have exceptional returning skills and can put pressure on their opponent’s first serve. They can potentially force errors or create opportunities to win the point.

A low FSRW% suggests a player struggles to handle powerful serves. They might be vulnerable to aces or forced into weak replies, giving the server the advantage.

A player with a high FSRW%, as well as a high Win % overall, is a powerful combination, especially for a player who also has a decent first serve. They can put pressure on both the opponent’s serve and control points on their own.

Break Points Converted

The break point conversion rate reflects how often a player wins a game after earning a break point opportunity.

Players with high BPC rates excel at capitalizing on scoring opportunities. They can clutch under pressure and effectively convert break points into game wins. On the other hand, a low BPC rate indicates that a player might struggle to close out games after earning break points. They might lack composure or specific skills needed to convert these crucial moments.

You want to look for players with high BPC and high first-serve percentage. These players tend to dominate, creating break opportunities with their serve and capitalizing off them later.

Unforced Errors

A player who consistently makes a high number of unforced errors can be a liability, especially in pressure situations. They might be prone to giving away points or games with avoidable mistakes. A player with a low unforced error rate is generally more consistent and reliable. They can control points effectively and force their opponent to create errors.

The key to using unforced errors to identify opportunities is to compare opponents. If the high unforced error player has a weaker opponent who also struggles to win points, the high-error player might still win despite their mistakes.

However, a low unforced error player vs a high error player is a different story. The low-error player will usually win because they are more consistent.

You should never just consider unforced errors in a vacuum, instead combine them with other stats for a more complete look at a player’s performance and style.

Australian Open Betting Tips

Now that you have the statistical knowledge to make informed wagers, let’s take a look at some of the top tips for betting on the Australian Open. These tips can be applied to many Grand Slam tournaments, but they’re particularly important for Australian Open games.

Bet Players That Succeed on Hard Courts

The Australian Open, like the US Open, is played on a hard court. These types of courts tend to favor serve and volley play styles, so players who can keep up a good pace usually see success.

However, hard courts don’t have as much bounce as clay courts, and the hard surface doesn’t do players’ feet or knees any favors. Older opponents are likely to tire faster on hard courts, so in later games of the Open, make sure you’re watching out for younger players. Their youth plays to their advantage, as older opponents are feeling the effects of days played on hard courts.

It can be helpful to identify a few key players you want to wager on and look at their previous wins. Were they primarily on hard, clay, or grass courts? Players who struggle on clay or grass might have a better record at the Australian Open.

Upsets are More Common in Early Rounds

At the Australian Open, upsets are more likely to occur in the early rounds. This is common across Grand Slam tournaments for a few reasons. The top players often start against low-seed players, so they see it as an easy win and might not give it their all, saving their energy for more challenging opponents.

This allows lower-seed players to smash it out of the park. They see facing the top player as a golden ticket because a win against them would put them ahead in the tournament. The lower-seed players often have a “nothing to lose” mentality and are willing to take risks.

Using this knowledge, you can watch out for potential upsets in the early matches of the Open. Underdogs tend to pull through on the first or second day, so betting favorites isn’t always the best strategy.

Watch Local Favorites

Home court advantage isn’t prominent in tennis because players travel all over the world to compete. However, Australian players tend to have an advantage at the Open, as fans go wild for their countrymen and women on the court.

In 2024, the native Aussie Alex de Minaur was seeded 12th in the Open, and had a pretty great run. He made it to the fourth round before taking a five-set loss to Andrey Rublev. Previously, de Minaur beat No.1 player Novak Djokovic at the United Cup, so his fan appeal at the Australian Open was high.

Always make sure you do a bit of research on Aussie players before betting them at the Open. Sometimes the stress of a home court can get in their heads, while other times lower-seed players thrive off the energy.

Sign Up for a Handicapping Service

One of the best ways to ensure that you’re making informed wagers is to sign up for a handicapping service. Tennis betting can be particularly difficult since odds change quickly and upsets are quite common.

If you’re a busy bettor, or just aren’t super experienced with tennis betting, reading picks and predictions from a pro handicapper can take you a long way. You don’t have to take their word as gospel, either. As long as you’re looking at what lines they’re betting along, and notice any trends they are following, you can make more informed wagers.

Start Making Money With Australian Open Wagers Today

The hype for the Australian Open is always very high, as it kicks off the Grand Slam tournament rotation each year. It holds a lot of betting opportunities for tennis enthusiasts and sets the stage for the new season of pro tennis.

As you’re betting on the Australian Open, remember to consider advanced statistics like first serve percentage and break points converted. You should always do your research before betting since upsets in tennis are so common.

To take your betting to the next level, consider subscribing to Scores and Stats’ premium handicapping service. Our group of bettors is always putting out picks for tennis betting, and you’ll find a lot of value for the Australian Open each year. Don’t volley forever, take charge and win your wagers with the best data from experienced sports bettors.