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Mastering NBA Finals Betting Odds: Your Ultimate Guide to Winning Big
When you’re looking for NBA Finals betting odds, remember to take the time to do your research beforehand. Consider offensive, defensive, and net ratings, along with Player Efficiency Ratings.
This NBA Championship betting guide will take an in-depth look at all the key metrics you should be analyzing before betting on the Finals. Plus, we’ll give some helpful tips for intermediate-to-advanced bettors who are looking to maximize their profits.
NBA Finals Betting Odds and Picks
How to Bet on NBA Championship Games
Betting on the NBA Championship game is a different beast from regular season games. Sportsbooks know many people are going to wager on the NBA finals, so they make sure to do as much research as possible to make sure no matter how you’re betting, they make money. This can make it difficult to exploit weaknesses in varied odds, but you can still make smart wagers.
While moneylines might seem like the best way to wager on the NBA Championships, we’d opt for using point spreads or betting over/under on key stats. Both teams have made it to the final game, so they are both highly skilled. That can make it difficult to accurately pick a winner.
But, if you take a look at the average points per game on both teams using historical data, you can make a pretty good guesstimate of the final score. Considering the offensive and defensive ratings of both teams can also help you pinpoint the point total.
Unique NBA Finals Prop Bets
Another exciting way to bet on the NBA Finals is with prop wagers. Since the Championship game is the last game of the season, all the season awards are handed out after the Championship.
You can place wagers on all the awards far in advance, but it’s risky to place long-term futures. Players can get injured or suspended, both of which can make you forfeit your money.
Instead, wait until before the Championship game to place your props wagers. The odds might not be as good, but you have more knowledge about player performance to help you make an informed wager.
Almost all NBA sportsbooks have odds for the following post-season awards:
- MVP
- Defensive Player of the Year
- Rookie of the Year
- Sixth Man of the Year
- Most Improved Player
- Coach of the Year
- Finals MVP
- All-Star MVP
- All-NBA 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Team
Advanced NBA Championship Stats to Watch
Staring at a team’s regular season record will only get you so far. Instead, consider each of the following advanced statistics to help you make more informed wagers:
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
While PER is largely a regular-season metric, it can still be useful for Championship betting. Teams with multiple players boasting high PERs generally indicate strong overall talent and offensive efficiency. This can be a positive sign for their championship chances.
Analyze the PER of each team’s core players. Teams with a strong average PER across their starting lineup and key rotation players might be strong contenders.
Look for teams where key players have shown significant PER improvement throughout the season. This might indicate a breakout year and a team on the rise.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
Effective Field Goal percentage considers the value of three-point shots, which are worth more points. Generally, teams with a higher eFG% throughout the season and playoffs tend to be strong contenders. They’re maximizing their scoring opportunities and putting pressure on opponents.
Look for teams with a good spread of eFG% across their starting lineup and key players. This suggests a well-rounded offensive attack, not relying solely on one scorer. When analyzing matchups, compare the eFG% of both teams. A team with a significantly higher eFG% might have an offensive advantage.
Offensive, Defensive, and Net Ratings
Offensive Rating (ORTG), Defensive Rating (DRTG), and Net Rating (NET) – are some of the most valuable for evaluating teams in your NBA championship betting strategy.
- Offensive Rating (ORTG): This measures the average points a team scores per 100 possessions. A high ORTG indicates a potent offense.
- Defensive Rating (DRTG): This measures the average points a team allows per 100 possessions. A low DRTG indicates a strong defense.
- Net Rating (NET): This is simply ORTG minus DRTG. A positive NET rating means the team outscores opponents on average, while a negative NET suggests they are being outscored.
Teams with a high ORTG, low DRTG, and strong positive NET rating are generally considered strong contenders. They have a well-balanced attack and can overpower opponents.
Don’t just take a positive net rating on face value: analyze each rating individually. A team with a high ORTG but a mediocre DRTG might struggle in close games. Conversely, a team with a strong DRTG but a low ORTG might struggle to win high-scoring contests.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
TS% considers both field goal percentage and free throw rate, providing a more comprehensive picture of a player or team’s shooting efficiency. This is important because teams with good free throw shooters tend to perform well in close games, a common scenario in the playoffs.
Look at the TS% of a team’s core players, especially scorers. High TS% scorers are less reliant on jump shots and can create their own offense, valuable assets in the playoffs. Also consider TS% in clutch situations (late-game scenarios). Players with a history of maintaining high TS% in pressure moments can be precious.
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Tips for Betting on the NBA Finals
There are a few tips and tricks you can use to stay ahead of the game. When it comes to NBA Championship betting, it’s easy to get caught up in the hype and make mistakes. Make sure you follow each tip below to make the most out of your betting experience.
Read NBA Betting Picks and Forums
News coverage of sports isn’t particularly geared toward the betting audience, so it’s always good to find sources of information that are made by bettors, for bettors. Reddit is a great place to poke the sports betting hivemind for ideas, and other forums like TheRX and Pregame have robust communities.
But, remember to take these opinions with a grain of salt. Reading NBA betting forums can be a good way to gather information on the Championship game, but don’t bet blindly. Always remember to do your research and make logical, skill-based wagers.
Hedging and Arbitrage
We mentioned earlier that sportsbooks tend to have fairly uniform odds on the Championship game across the board. However, that doesn’t mean you still can’t try to find the best value or use arbitrage betting to make a profit.
Hedging and arbitrage are both methods of covering your losses by placing opposing wagers at different sportsbooks and exploiting any differing prices to make a profit regardless of the game’s outcome. These two practices are rather advanced betting strategies, but a simple moneyline on both teams at two different sportsbooks might be enough to cover your losses.
Make sure you always do the math and ensure you’re going to make money before placing opposing wagers
Use a Handicapping Service
While betting forums can be a great place to spitball ideas and get confirmation of your math, handicapping websites are even better at identifying value. These folks spend their lives pouring over lines and comparing them to NBA stats.
Signing up for a handicapping service might seem like a waste of money, but you’re paying for the inside scoop. You can see what trends the handicappers are betting on, and pinpoint areas they may have missed. Plus, when you see wagers that have a high probability of success, there’s no shame in using them to make a quick buck.
Start Making Winning Wagers on the NBA Championships
The key to success when you bet on NBA Championship games is objectivity. Even if you’re rooting for one team, don’t let your emotions lead you into placing dumb wagers. Always use stats and reasoning to back up your bets.
The best way to get a head start over other NBA bettors is to sign up for a handicapping service. Scores and Stats has a host of capable handicappers on staff, with many having consistently been in profit for years. These handicappers want to share their winning strategies with you, and you can start making money with our premium subscription.
