Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Picks and Predictions September 18th 2025

Yankees vs Orioles Picks and Predictions — September 18, 2025

The New York Yankees travel to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles in an AL East matchup on Thursday night. The Yankees (85-67) are fighting for playoff position, winners of two straight and 6-4 in their last ten. The Orioles (72-80) have played spoiler lately, also 6-4 across their last ten, riding a three-game win streak. Both teams bring momentum into this series opener, reflected in the latest MLB outcomes.

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Opening odds:

• Moneyline: Yankees −193, Orioles +161
• Runline: Yankees −1.5 (−123), Orioles +1.5 (+102)
• Total (Over/Under): 9.0 runs

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Yankees Can Win If…

• Max Fried delivers another strong outing. With a 17-5 record and a 3.03 ERA, he’s been one of MLB’s most reliable starters this year.
• The bats stay hot. New York leads MLB in both slugging percentage and home runs, led by Aaron Judge (48 HR) and Cody Bellinger (29 HR).
• Their depth produces. In their recent 10-5 win over Minnesota, Trent Grisham carried the lineup with two homers and four RBIs, showing the danger outside the stars.

“We know our lineup can put pressure on pitchers from top to bottom,” Yankees staff said after their recent surge.

Orioles Can Win If…

• Cade Povich keeps them competitive. With a 5.05 ERA, he has struggled, but Baltimore needs five or more innings of solid pitching to avoid taxing the bullpen.
• Their offense capitalizes on mistakes. With 180 home runs this season (8th in MLB), they have the pop to punish errors, especially with Gunnar Henderson leading the charge.
• The bullpen stays steady. With just 20 blown saves (4th fewest in MLB), the Orioles’ relief corps gives them a path in tight games if they can get a late lead.

“We know we can win close games if we keep it clean,” Orioles coaches said after the White Sox series.

Key MLB Betting Trends

The Lean

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (−193)
Projected Final Score: Yankees 6, Orioles 4
Total Lean: Over 9.0

Reasoning: The Yankees’ combination of elite power bats and Max Fried on the mound makes them the safer play. The Orioles have shown life recently, but with Povich’s struggles and New York’s lineup depth, the road team holds the edge. Expect runs on both sides, leaning to the over.

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