Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Picks and Predictions September 13th 2025

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Red Sox ask Brayan Bello to cool Aaron Judge, Yankees

New York Yankees (82-65) took the series opener Friday with a 4-1 win at Fenway Park, powered by Aaron Judge’s first-inning homer and six no-hit innings from Luis Gil. They’ll turn to ace Max Fried Saturday with a chance to secure the series and strengthen their AL wild-card hold.

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The Boston Red Sox (81-67) counter with Brayan Bello, who has dominated New York this season. Looking at recent MLB game results, Boston has now dropped two straight to its rival after an eight-game win streak in the rivalry earlier this year.


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New York Yankees Can Win If…

  • Max Fried stays hot. He’s thrown seven innings in three straight wins and has a 2.16 career ERA vs Boston.
  • Judge keeps mashing. With four homers in his last four games, Judge remains the most dangerous bat in this series.
  • The bullpen holds. New York’s relievers backed Gil with three strong innings Friday; more of the same locks down another win.

“It felt like a playoff atmosphere from the very first pitch and the boys came out swinging,” Judge said of Friday’s win.

Boston Red Sox Can Win If…

  • Brayan Bello continues his Yankee mastery. He’s allowed zero runs in 14 innings across two starts vs New York this year.
  • The bats wake up with runners in scoring position. Alex Cora emphasized Boston’s struggles in that department after Friday’s loss.
  • The lineup supports Nate Eaton’s spark. His late homer broke up the no-hitter Friday — more contributions are needed.

“We’ve just got to be better,” Cora said of his team’s clutch hitting.


Key MLB Betting Trends

CategoryYankeesRed Sox
Record82-65 (2nd AL East)81-67 (3rd AL East)
Last 10 Games6-4, won 2 straight6-7 in last 13, lost 2 straight
Runs Per Game1st in HRs, top-5 slugging5th in BA, 1st in doubles
ERA / Opp Runs3rd in BAA vs opponents5th in ERA (3.73)
Head-to-Head 20252 straight wins (after 8 losses)Won 8 straight before current skid

The Leans

Main Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-137)
Projected Final Score: Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

  • Runline Angle: Red Sox +1.5 (-144) → Bello’s history vs NY makes another one-run game possible.
  • Total Runs Angle: Over 8.5 (-114) → With both lineups ranking high in slugging and Judge red-hot, runs are in play.

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Best Bet Box

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-137) + Over 8.5 (Parlay)
Confidence: ★★★★☆


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